Suicide scenario

PB believes all of the known evidence points toward walkaway; that police are looking hard at foul play, but keep coming up with circumstantial evidence pointing to an intentional disappearance. PB goes on to point out that investigators do not express opinions on cases, except for one time DZ did so with the Gricar case.
http://community.centredaily.com/?q=node/6007

If police do not generally express opinions, then pointing to walkaway must be PB's opinion...his conclusion based on the circumstantial evidence made public by police...which is fine, as theories go. But I wonder how his opinion might change, were police to be as forthcoming in releasing details about the foul play part of the investigation. And then there is another possibility, which, as long as we are all being objective and open minded, should be considered. But first:

I remember DZ expressing his opinion in 2005, an opinion which appeared to evolve as the investigation progressed. On May 12 (CDT) DZ said he still thought RG was "out there somewhere, alive and well"; he did not think suicide likely, but allowed for the possibility of foul play.

A month later (6/10, CDT), to show that the Michigan sighting (walkaway theory) was not the only avenue being investigated, DZ announced that police had "a short list of suspects who may have had motive to kill Gricar, most of whom are people Gricar prosecuted...". On 7/13 (CDT) DZ said, "The longer this goes on, the greater the likelihood that it's foul play", and on 7/19 (CDT) that the 2 best explanations police then had were homicide and suicide.

In the Inquirer on 9/6 DZ is quoted as saying, "To me it looks more and more like a homicide by someone who planned this out, lured Ray to a meeting, got him to bring the computer, and then took the time to do something with the body so it wouldn't be found." Nine days later (CDT), and for months thereafter, DZ retreated to the official drone of 3 possible theories.

Just after the first anniversary it was reported (4/17/06, Collegian) that DZ went so far as to say it was not his opinion that police were dealing with a homicide, but that homicide was but 1 of 3 distinct possibilities. I did not see the television interview PB refers to in his blog...where DZ again said he thought Gricar was dead. But it was likely just after he was quoted in the “Missed leads” article (5/13/06, CDT), because on 5/16/06 (CDT, Q&A) PB stated that DZ was no longer allowed to speak to the press.

Much has been made about DZ and the investigation over the years, just like much is being made about MR and the investigation since his departure. Was DZ just giving out his own “opinion of the day”, while the official investigation continued into the 3 theories? Or was he attempting to deflect public attention away from some “hot” or “hotter” aspect of the investigation? Or was he accurately reflecting the actual investigation, perplexed by the meaning of what few clues there were?

The same questions apply to the post-DZ era. Is the sum total of evidence actually pointing LE toward intentional disappearance, or is LE attempting to deflect public attention away from a suspected murder they cannot prove?

Or (and this theory has really taken a back seat) might RG have intentionally left all of these tantalizing walkaway clues (the stuff of legend), before taking his own life in a way where he would never be found? And would that not also explain (perhaps even better explain) all of the "evidence" made public so far?

I suspect we will not know the answer until the last chapter in this sad affair has been written. And perhaps not even then, depending on who writes the book.

A recent, related post:
http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...9#post12183329
...and followup:
http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...4#post12188684

[J. J. in Phila]

The problem is the how. How did RFG manage to hide his body, after he died? In reality, the dead seldom bury the dead.

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

The problem is the how. How did RFG manage to hide his body, after he died? In reality, the dead seldom bury the dead.

As with all of the theories/scenarios, there are holes to fill. The “intentional disappearance” scenario being discussed does not explain what I believe would have to have been requisite, longstanding breakdowns in RG’s closest personal relationships (with LG, with PF, even his sense of professional duty) to allow time for all of the deliberate planning required to vanish without leaving a trace. Such breakdowns are not evident...there is no motive. And if it were that well planned, the scenario does not explain why an intelligent man clumsily left so many little “walkaway” clues behind. Taunting police in a game of “catch the legend if you can” just does not do it for me.

I am no shrink, but under this scenario [ok, consider it a “premise” to a suicide scenario then...a work in progress], there are no breakdowns in close personal relationships required. I could believe that a person who might be on a slippery slope mentally, could appear normal (or nearly so)...going through everyday motions, and keeping his game face on with family, friends and colleagues. And under this “premise”, all those little “walkaway” clues which have been surfacing (whether he intentionally left them or not) would have been part of the hidden illness. In real purpose then, the goal would be suicide...while the plan, perhaps because of some need to rationalize suicide or to become a legend (ala Wiley, et al.), was a runaway ruse.

You are correct though. For that plan to work, his body must not be found...that would ruin the ruse. I do not believe RG would have picked the river, or any other local body of water (creek, lake, pond, quarry, dug well, etc.), but who knows. I can, however, think of ways he could "hide" his own body...even get himself buried (at an active construction site, for instance)...without even having to leave the general area of Lewisburg.

Side note: I guess PB does not know that "the Dipper" (jolly pirate that I am) seldom stays on topic or in one place for long. That would never do for a snarky, apprentice saunterer. Think about every thing you have learned about RG and this case...using the premise of suicide. And, by all means, feel free to flesh it out, ignore it, or trash it.

[J. J. in Phila]

You have the same problem with your suicide theory that exists in the walkaway theory, geography.

No active construction site in the immediate area, no open iron furnace, no open vat of acid, nothing in the area to destroy the body.

Is it possible that RFG drove some place and killed himself? Yes. Where is the car he used? Ah, well, they don't seem to have looked.

BTW: How does RFG move the car after he kills himself? He has to, of there is an abandoned car sitting someplace.

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

You have the same problem with your suicide theory that exists in the walkaway theory, geography.

No active construction site in the immediate area, no open iron furnace, no open vat of acid, nothing in the area to destroy the body.

Is it possible that RFG drove some place and killed himself? Yes. Where is the car he used? Ah, well, they don't seem to have looked.

BTW: How does RFG move the car after he kills himself? He has to, of there is an abandoned car sitting someplace.

There was, in fact, a huge construction project going on at the time...lots of earthmoving activity when I walked the site in April '05. It was just north of Lewisburg, along the west side of Route 15...within easy walking distance of the SoS. And once he got to the railroad, RG could have followed the tracks right to the place. But he was not necessarily limited by geography.

At least one sighting (CF's), and any scenario where RG would need to leave the immediate Lewisburg area without his Mini Cooper, surely would depend on a second vehicle being available. You already mentioned the possibilities of a false identity and hidden money. The only other thing RG would need to avoid detection is time. In neither scenario would he have purchased or leased a car in the area that day. It would have been set up days or weeks earlier. And at the other end, wherever that may have been, can you not envision how he could just as easily rid himself of that vehicle?

I am not advocating this or any other scenario. I punch holes in yours' and others'. And y'all get to punch holes in mine. That is our brand of participation in a spirited debate, while valuing the opinions of others, lol.

[sherrijean981]

Suicide by drowning would have to been done somewhere further down the river. He would have just broken his ankles at the bridge in Lewisburg that April. Once in deeper water a couple of large concrete bricks with rope and a jump from a boat would keep you in one spot.

He might have known of a cave he could have walked through and got lost. He could have come back to Bellefonte and drove into the quarry just outside of Bellefonte or could be in one of the ponds/quarries in Lewisburg. He could be hanging in a forest somewhere.

But! From being in a depression a couple of times myself, suicide would be an irratic reaction, not a planned one. If he was able to plan taking his computer, clearing it, throwing it, getting out of Lewisburg, planning the gift of a car and paying off of PF's home, plus continuing to work, keep his court dates, his meetings, and being excited about retirement and seeing the country, I don't believe RG was depressed. I don't believe he killed himself.

I do believe he had something on his mind, something serious bothering him, but suicide wasn't it. JMO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Serendipitous1

There was, in fact, a huge construction project going on at the time...lots of earthmoving activity when I walked the site in April '05. It was just north of Lewisburg, along the west side of Route 15...within easy walking distance of the SoS. And once he got to the railroad, RG could have followed the tracks right to the place. But he was not necessarily limited by geography.

There is a problem on a construction site. It is hard to hide the evidence that your were there after you are dead. Yes, he could have jumped in wet cement, but workers are likely to see the impression when he shows up. RFG would also have to be very familiar with the site, e.g. is the cement five feet deep or five inches deep? It's easier said than done.

At least one sighting (CF's), and any scenario where RG would need to leave the immediate Lewisburg area without his Mini Cooper, surely would depend on a second vehicle being available. You already mentioned the possibilities of a false identity and hidden money. The only other thing RG would need to avoid detection is time. In neither scenario would he have purchased or leased a car in the area that day. It would have been set up days or weeks earlier. And at the other end, wherever that may have been, can you not envision how he could just as easily rid himself of that vehicle?

The car could not be driven off from the suicide site. If RFG purchased a car and drove it some place, it will still be sitting there abandoned. Only if he could hide the car as well has body, after death, would this work. (Yes, he could have gotten a car and drove it into a deep lake, but there would still be a record of the purchase.)

He'd have to get another car, which would produce a record. It's possible that he could have established a false identity, but that would take time; he'd have to have planning this for a while.

[Cloudbuster]

S1 at the construction that was going on can you tell me what machines they was using? Also was there any walks put in?

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

There is a problem on a construction site. It is hard to hide the evidence that your were there after you are dead. Yes, he could have jumped in wet cement, but workers are likely to see the impression when he shows up. RFG would also have to be very familiar with the site, e.g. is the cement five feet deep or five inches deep? It's easier said than done.

I do not mind you trashing the scenario, or in this case, a detail. But I really wish you would read the post first. I was referring to earth fill...bulldozers and dump trucks...not concrete. For Cloudbuster also IIRC: the roads were pretty much finished; do not remember any sidewalks; a Sheetz store was underway closer to Route 15; grading operations west of that. I only throw this out as one example. Also, a correction: I saw the construction in April, but I would not have walked the site until after the psychic's "vision" was published. It was the ramped railroad tracks which momentarily drew my attention.

The car could not be driven off from the suicide site. If RFG purchased a car and drove it some place, it will still be sitting there abandoned. Only if he could hide the car as well has body, after death, would this work. (Yes, he could have gotten a car and drove it into a deep lake, but there would still be a record of the purchase.)

He'd have to get another car, which would produce a record. It's possible that he could have established a false identity, but that would take time; he'd have to have planning this for a while.

So you agree it is possible. Thanks J.J.

Originally Posted by sherrijean981

Suicide by drowning would have to been done somewhere further down the river. He would have just broken his ankles at the bridge in Lewisburg that April. Once in deeper water a couple of large concrete bricks with rope and a jump from a boat would keep you in one spot.

He might have known of a cave he could have walked through and got lost. He could have come back to Bellefonte and drove into the quarry just outside of Bellefonte or could be in one of the ponds/quarries in Lewisburg. He could be hanging in a forest somewhere.

But! From being in a depression a couple of times myself, suicide would be an irratic reaction, not a planned one. If he was able to plan taking his computer, clearing it, throwing it, getting out of Lewisburg, planning the gift of a car and paying off of PF's home, plus continuing to work, keep his court dates, his meetings, and being excited about retirement and seeing the country, I don't believe RG was depressed. I don't believe he killed himself.

I do believe he had something on his mind, something serious bothering him, but suicide wasn't it. JMO

I do not know very much about mental health issues, so it is difficult to disagree. I can say, from personal experience, that appearing to function "normally" while hiding a deepening depression is entirely possible. If it was suicide with a feigned walkaway, hiding his body would be key. That is why, hypothetically, he would not choose a location with a good to fair chance of discovery.

Logicworks: thanks for the links to those papers. I was somewhat disappointed that there were few in the data base who were male, in RG's age range, attempting/completing suicide. And I am not much on statistics anyway. We are dealing with one individual, under unique circumstances.

What event(s), if any, might have contributed to a hypothetical “decline and fall”?

When RG publicly announced his retirement (January 8, 2004), he said it was not related to recent events; that he had known since his last election that he would retire at the end of his term. And it was said, here I believe, that he had told his family a year before he announced it publicly. That year (2003), after telling his family of his retirement plans, seemed to be unusually bumpy, even for a seasoned DA like RG:

- In April he was sanctioned for misconduct by a county judge, after he had placed a call to a pathologist friend and frequent expert witness for the prosecution. He was concerned about possible professional conflicts of interest, after learning the doctor had been listed as a defense expert in an upcoming rape trial.

- From early summer to December RG struggled with several magistrates and judges to have charges filed in a vehicular homicide case. He was ultimately successful, but decided not to pursue the charges the following May, after reading a state Supreme Court ruling which clarified the legal definition of gross negligence.

- In September RG filed a notice of aggravating circumstances and the state’s intention to seek the death penalty in a high-profile, highly controversial, shaken-baby case. The defendant’s attorney abruptly withdrew from the case in December 2004. KA might know more about the reason why (I could only assume).

- In December a county judge ruled that RG's denial, of a first-time offender's application to be put in the ARD program, was racially motivated. RG argued he was following his 18-year-old standing policy in his office. But the defendant's attorney, who was a former ADA under RG, said she had never heard of that policy while at the DA's office. The same judge overturned his own decision the following month, after hearing further testimony from RG.

On the day RG publicly announced he would not seek another term, RB (who had lost to RG in the 2001 primary) said he planned to seek the office. I am not sure when MM or the democratic candidates announced. But March 8, 2005 was the filing deadline...another milestone in RG’s dwindling days as DA. There was no changing his mind about running for re-election after that...not that there was any indication he was reconsidering.

In an interview with MJ (CDT) on March 8, RG endorsed MM because of his prosecutorial experience, and RB’s lack thereof. When asked about KA, who had apparently just filed her paperwork on the democratic side, RG reportedly seemed surprised by the news, but said she too was a good prosecutor.

So, what affect might any of this have had on RG’s psyche? No one knows. But March 8, five weeks before the mysterious disappearance, appears to have been the point after which RG’s behavior became noticeably different...starting with CS’s recollection of “odd behavior” at a meeting in judge’s chambers on March 9.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Serendipitous1

I do not mind you trashing the scenario, or in this case, a detail. But I really wish you would read the post first. I was referring to earth fill...bulldozers and dump trucks...not concrete.

Actually, that still creates a greater problem. RFG has basically find the construction site and run behind the truck as it is about to dump the earth or dive in from of a bulldozer. That suddenly becomes much harder.

As to the suicide after walkaway, I've basically used the premise that it is walkaway if RFG is out of Lewisburg voluntarily. Could have done that and later committed suicide. Yes.

RFG could have acquired a car and driven it into a body of water deliberately; that is a possibility. There will be a record of the car acquisition.

The question is still the same: How did Ray Gricar get out of Lewisburg? If the ultimate answer is, he didn't, then his action was not voluntary.

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

Actually, that still creates a greater problem. RFG has basically find the construction site and run behind the truck as it is about to dump the earth or dive in from of a bulldozer. That suddenly becomes much harder.

It was only one possible example. And there was a reason I only gave one example...if you (or, more correctly, others) get my drift.

As to the suicide after walkaway, I've basically used the premise that it is walkaway if RFG is out of Lewisburg voluntarily. Could have done that and later committed suicide. Yes.

I understand the similarities between the scenarios. But I wanted to explore one which explained the "evidence", without having to trash RG.

RFG could have acquired a car and driven it into a body of water deliberately; that is a possibility. There will be a record of the car acquisition.

What good are records in someone else's name...a name which cannot be linked to RG?

The question is still the same: How did Ray Gricar get out of Lewisburg? If the ultimate answer is, he didn't, then his action was not voluntary.

Asked and answered, hypothetically.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Serendipitous1

. But I wanted to explore one which explained the "evidence", without having to trash RG.

I would not say that any of the three major scenarios "trash" RFG.

What good are records in someone else's name...a name which cannot be linked to RG?
Asked and answered, hypothetically.

Maybe it hasn't been answered:

This is the situation with RFG. For 59 years prior to 4/15/05, the was a record of interaction between RFG and the rest of the planet. He went to school, paid taxes, opened bank accounts, interacted with other people. If there is another identity, then that other identity would have very little record (or none) prior to 4/15/05; it would, however, have a record of acquiring the car.

That's what I'm looking at. We know where RFG dropped off the record; who popped onto the record, if anyone?

[gstickley]

LW, you are so right. The "trashing" of RG began immediately & continues to this day. Just like the "trashing" of KA, BB, TM, & anyone else who doesn't go along with the "suicide" or "walkaway" theories.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by logicworks

Of course, it's 'trashing' and it began immediately with LE putting out falsehoods to the public within two days of the disappearance......Suicide Possible headlines, as if by putting

And where did LE get this? PEF? No. Sloan? No. TG and CG? Yes. Now, I think they reacted naturally considering what happened to their father.

The same holds true for walkaway. Forcing someone into a character change with NO evidence to prove such a character change ever occurred, forces the loving man into uncaring, abandoning everyone with no forewarning; it forces him out of his known dedication to service and into a state of total non-concern about a job, money, retirement; it forces him from his known commitment into a position of betrayal and pulling up roots.

Problem is, it is regarded by some of his friends as being in character. You speak of "betrayal?" Who is RFG "betraying?" No minor child that depends on him. No creditors. No spouse.

You just don't like the concept, so you downplay it.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by logicworks

NO LE should ever draw a conclusion nor should any publication put any conclusion based solely on emotional responses without evidence of such an occurrence ever happening to the public. If a body was found, a suicide note, doctor who says RG was major depressed, anything, but when it is offered as a reaction to a reaction, that is NOT news. It's misleading.

LE didn't mislead, certainly when they sent the car to be processed, or when the brought in the dogs, or even when the searched the river.

As far as the walkaway theory, show me ONE piece of evidence that proves RG did so.

Well, if I could look at PennDOT records, and interview and construct a time line or that inner circle, I might find some.

In the meantime, while you choose to create the character to fit your theory, I will continue to stick with the character of the man as he lived his life for decades as a DA. What I want to know is that whatever happened was HIS choice, whatever that choice may have been.
JMO

I prefer to judge the "character of the man" based on folkes that had closer contact with him, not of you assessments of what RFG should be like. I trust Sloan's opinion more than yours in that regard. I trust OOBrett's contacts opinion's more than yours in this regard.

You are claiming, in effect **I don't want RFG to be the kind of person who walked away, so he didn't.**

In his blog, PB listed possible indicators of depression/suicide, things which have been around since the disappearance...
...his brother’s suicide by drowning.
...his car being found near a river, as was his brother’s car.
...his acting strangely (more distant, distracted) in the weeks, even months before his disappearance.
...his reported unusual fatigue and taking uncharacteristic frequent naps.

These possible indicators have been discussed here before...
...the brother’s diagnosed disorder; no indication RG was similarly afflicted but could have been hiding an undiagnosed depression.
...TG’s and CG’s initial reaction to the report of where RG’s car was found.
...contradictory reports that RG seemed fine, normal.
...possible embellishment of the fatigue/napping in order to induce a judge to issue a search warrant.
...the stress of his job.
...the stress of contemplating the transition to retirement.
...tidying up his affairs/giving up his possessions.
...the PSP profiler’s report deeming suicide likely.

In his blog PB also related the sighting on the day before RG disappeared, when he was seen by a doctor acquaintance at Raystown Lake. In the context of a hypothetical walkaway, PB wondered if maybe RG planned to vanish then, from that location, perhaps foiled by running into someone he knew. But maybe there is an alternative explanation.

I believe it was also mentioned here (and I was reading some last evening), that many people hide their depression...even those who contemplate suicide...not wanting to appear weak. And many who attempt/complete suicide appear to be happy and calm just before the act, feeling at peace for having finally committed to a plan to resolve whatever issue(s) they have been struggling internally with.

I was thinking about RG’s week, the day(s) before he disappeared, and how even what little we know could be viewed as a man at peace, committed to a plan, saying his ‘good-byes’ (though not literally)...e-mailing/joking with a defense attorney, attending the prison board meeting, a last phone call from his daughter, visiting a lake he could well have had fond memories of (maybe even driving past the old home in Loveville), an evening stroll in the park with his girlfriend.

Might it have been RG who left the county code book on MS’s desk, creased hard so it would open to the desired page...knowing MS would find it, but not for a couple of days? April 15 (the recurring date in a novel RG had apparently read, having collaborated with the author regarding a case years before)...was that part of ‘the plan’? Taking the whole day off to drive down a back highway, with his memories and his memory-free laptop? A last call before turning his cell phone off...an afterthought to make sure Honey would be cared for...tidying up his affairs and leaving Centre County, and his life, behind for good?

And if he did acquire another vehicle and left Lewisburg, could he have had other places to go before he was done? TG mentioned something to the affect that his father had gone to a place which held special meaning to him, while his uncle had no such attachment to Lewisburg. Might RG have gone 'home'...to Cleveland?

[Cloudbuster]

Good work S1 but are you losing it lol?

[J. J. in Phila]

The only thing I'd say is that the reaction of TG and CG is what I'd expect.

[puzzled]

That was a nice and well thought out post S1. A couple of months ago my dear friends grandson Adam committed suicide. He was 22 I believe. He and his girl had broke up. He wanted to marry her and she wanted to wait until she completed nursing school. He wanted a new car, he wanted his bills paid off. He wanted everything now. His grandma said that he had met a new girl and that he was trying to move things too quickly with her. She told him to slow down a bit. He went drinking with his buddies and came home and was texting her. She at some point stopped answering his texts. He went down stairs to his room and smashed his phone. His parents were upstairs asleep. They heard some strange noises in the night but really did not think much of it. In the morning they found their beautiful son hanging from his closet bar. There were marks on the wall where he must have been kicking to alert his parents to come and help him after her had hung himself. I have probably known about 10 people in my lifetime who have committed suicide. It is a very lonely and solitary act. Not one of them including my cousin involved anyone else. Often the person will give off clues or signals but when they actually do it they typically are alone. Clearly Ray met with someone that day. His car was supposedly moved to and fro. He looked as though he were waiting for someone. These are the reasons why I believe he was murdered.

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm not certain if RFG met anyone. A walkaway to suicide would be a possibility.

[Cloudbuster]

What about a walk away to foul play? Like he wanted to walk and didn't make it.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by logicworks

I never said LE misled when they did anything that is expected in an investigation. The unexpected was when there was a press release the second day saying 'Suicide possible' without one drop of evidence to back up such a conclusion. I understand paper will hold still for anything to be printed on it, but why offer such a premature conclusion with NO evidence? It was misleading, and to this day, with NO body all three possibilities remain on the table, NOT one.

The suicide theory was out there as a possibility largely because of the family history of suicide, the total lack of evidence of foul play, and what many people described as unusual behavior of RFG in the weeks prior to the disappearance. It wasn't hard to look at that possibility at the time. I heard that RFG was missing and his car was found, on probably 4/18/05, and my thoughts were, maybe murder and maybe suicide.

As far as 'judging his character', I base my opinion on information I have gleaned from discussions with those who knew him, those acquainted with the case, as well as what I read, therefore I am more than satisfied with his 'character' as I see it.

I have based my opinion on two things. First, that his friends/acquaintances/coworkers think he could, including some of closest friends and some of the basis for their thoughts, e.g. he expressed an interest in walkaway cases and now, on making sure the laptop data could not be read.

Do I believe he had a 'hidden character'? Nopey, nope, I don't.

Ironically, there is no "hidden character." This appears to be fairly open.

I have never felt a pressing need to introduce 'someone thinks walk away is possible' or 'he could have hidden his body' because there is no evidence to back either up with.

You have insisted that the "character of the man," who you didn't know, would preclude walkaway. The people that did know him say it is possible, and there at least some circumstantial evidence to support that. I therefore must conclude that it was within the "character of the man" for him to have left voluntarily. Whether he did or whether some one else exploited that characteristic is another question. (And in that regard, if TOL's acquaintance is right, that would not support walkaway.)

"I don't want RG to be the kind of guy to walk away, therefore he didn't???"...........I have repeatedly said that IF RG walked away, NO problem whatsoever if HE chose to do so. I don't care what his reasons may have been, where he is, what he is doing. No explanations necessary. What we MUST know is that whatever happened was the result of HIS choice based on something more than YOU 'think' so. It's simple.....all RG has to do is let someone know he is OK; case closed if that's what he wants. Without evidence that he is OK, there is no proof he is, thus the need for a FULL investigation.
JMO

I agree that LE must, but you have gone so far to suggest that there shouldn't be a grand jury, and that LE shouldn't look at methods RFG could have used to get out of Lewisburg. It simple for you; you want an investigation that doesn't look for some of the evidence. I want to, even if at the end of the day we conclude that this no walkaway case.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by gstickley

LW, you are so right. The "trashing" of RG began immediately & continues to this day. Just like the "trashing" of KA, BB, TM, & anyone else who doesn't go along with the "suicide" or "walkaway" theories.

JKA was being "trashed" because of here massive "Court TV Conspiracy Theory." BB, for annoying two DA's. JM, for months prior to his public comments, because he's in a political campaign against the sitting AG; he has the one doing most of the "trashing."

RFG being "trashed?" No, just discussing the possibilities; this may not have been murder.

PB mentioned that multiple sources inside the courthouse told him how RG had talked excitedly about retiring...being able to “wake up without an alarm clock.” He wondered if RG actually meant it, or if perhaps he was struggling to convince himself that he could cope with retirement. RG put it to a reporter this way when he publicly announced his retirement in Jan. ‘04: “I want to get used to life without an alarm clock, not having to wake up and just enjoying things that I haven't had time for.” http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive...04dnews-03.asp

If he used the alarm clock reference repeatedly when talking to various people, that might point toward some difficulty RG had in coping with his approaching retirement. And while I am not a particular fan of trying to extract subtleties (or hard facts for that matter) from media bits, the prefatory phrase in the above quote might also be revealing.

On the other hand, PB mentioned how TG found it difficult to believe RG may have killed himself, knowing the pain and heartache his brother's suicide had caused the family. Under this hypothetical scenario, that could have been a huge part of an internal conflict. It might even have precipitated ‘the plan’...not necessarily to deceive his loved ones into a false hope that he was alive and out there somewhere, but perhaps an apology of sorts (however irrational) for giving in to an overpowering infirmity.

In the same Inquirer article (9/6/05) where DZ laid out his (“it looks more and more like”) hypothetical homicide scenario, TG stated that if RG was dead, he hoped it was by suicide, because that would have been his (RG’s) choice...far preferable to it having been someone else’s choice. The following May TG also said, “...from a suicide standpoint, there wasn’t a lot to [the evidence], but he was heading into a major life-changing event there with his retirement pending. So there are causative factors if you look at it...”

PB also pondered whether the laptop contained RG’s ‘goodbyes’, but that in being so distraught he removed the hard drive and threw both in the river. Under this hypothetical suicide scenario though, there would be no ‘goodbye’ notes...because that would also ruin the ruse.

The laptop continues to be a curious oddity though. It seems certain now that no information can be gotten from the hard drive, and unlikely anyone will ever know why he took it with him that day (if he did and if that hard drive was from his computer). It was discussed here how awkward it would have been for RG (alone) to have tossed the laptop while driving across the bridge. And for the reasons I previously posted in other threads, I find it difficult to believe (though possible) that the laptop (or at least the hard drive which was found) was placed in the river coincident with the disappearance. But with suicide usually being (as ‘puzzled’ mentioned) a solitary act, it seems these things would have to have been so.

And I do not know what to make yet of PB's latest - that witnesses (plural) told police they saw RG (not just any dude) moving "the" (not just any) Mini Cooper several (as in more than 2) times within the small parking lot, and without leaving the lot. I can see how that might fit all 3 theories, and I would like to avoid my own trap...that of just chalking it up to being another act of an irrational person.

Side note: If PB's arguments in regard to his suicide and walkaway theories have only scratched the surface...if the oddities surrounding the case and RG's behavior could fill a book...what else is there and why is this just coming out now?

[Cloudbuster]

S1 I would love to know the book of oddities. I think by knowing we might be able to profile his behavior on what seems to fit better.

[J. J. in Phila]

S1, there is one other factor. RFG wanted to eliminate the data from the laptop months prior to the disappearance. If this was a ruse, that might explain it.

Just as I did not find it particularly unusual for RG to have discussed Wiley 8 years after the disappearance, since that case was again in the news at the time, I do not find it that unusual RG inquired about how to erase a hard drive after publicly announcing his retirement...or that he may have erased it and then shelved the laptop. It could have been part of 'the plan'; he could assume investigators would learn of his inquiries. But would the laptop have any intrinsic value to the investigation? The only thing I can think of is that there may be an as yet unreported indication he had used it more recently. That might have restored some probative value he could then exploit in ‘the plan’.

The locations and timing of the laptop and hard drive finds are puzzling. If RG was tooling around the area, I guess I can believe he could have made a hook shot with the laptop, out the driver’s side window on his way into Lewisburg from the east. But I do not picture that happening in broad daylight. And I have always thought it odd that divers failed to discover the laptop in April, since the piers of the traffic bridge would have been of particular interest.

At least one news article stated the computer was reportedly found near the third support of the bridge, on the Montandon side, and that earlier searches had focused more on the Lewisburg side. DD was unsure if the prior searches had combed the exact area, and pointed out that the river was lower and clearer than it was in April. In retrospect, all of this seems like just more excuses/disinformation.

After the laptop was found (sans hard drive) on the last Saturday morning in July, there was a renewed search effort including divers that weekend, looking for any other items that could be linked to RG. And shortly after that, all of the brush and flood debris was removed from the park bank and adjacent channel. To me that indicated an intense focus on the area between the SoS parking lot and the laptop discovery, including where the hard drive supposedly laid all the time. And yet it was not then found.

But (go figure), I have an alternative explanation. Under this hypothetical scenario it would not make sense for RG to put the laptop in the river at all, but especially off the upper side of the bridge, or to detach the hard drive and place it in another location up river...all of which could possibly suggest suicide. And it also would not make sense, particularly if he left the Lewisburg area, for RG to have kept his wallet with him...or even his keys. He could have left all of his valuable personal items locked in his car (ala Wiley). But that might seem too reminiscent of the scene of his brother’s demise; his brother’s locked, silver Camry was found at Veterans Park in Dayton, with his wallet in the glove compartment.

So I wonder if RG might have left these items on dry land...some place(perhaps inside the SoS) where he supposed they would eventually be found by police, or by someone who would turn them over to police. I wonder if someone saw him do it or if they were found by someone in the area...someone who, not being so civic minded, kept the cash and laptop and threw the wallet away. I wonder if that person might have used the laptop for a while...and only later, realizing they were holding (and had been using) evidence in the disappearance, pulled the hard drive and pitched the laptop in the river, and then, long after the second search had died down, tossed the hard drive in as well, in another location.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Serendipitous1

So I wonder if RG might have left these items on dry land...some place(perhaps inside the SoS) where he supposed they would eventually be found by police, or by someone who would turn them over to police. I wonder if someone saw him do it or if they were found by someone in the area...someone who, not being so civic minded, kept the cash and laptop and threw the wallet away. I wonder if that person might have used the laptop for a while...and only later, realizing they were holding (and had been using) evidence in the disappearance, pulled the hard drive and pitched the laptop in the river, and then, long after the second search had died down, tossed the hard drive in as well, in another location.

This was the main reason that I was asking about the statute of limitations.

Suppose RFG was:

A. Writing a suicide note.

B. Looking at photographs he downloaded of family and friends before killing himself.

He kills himself, but leaves the laptop someplace public. Someone after that, Joe is walking along as sees the laptop. He says to himself, "Free laptop," and takes it home.

A week later, he realizes that he has the laptop of the DA who disappeared. Is he going to be a suspect in a murder? How about theft? It protects him to toss it in the river. Joe may have put his resume on the drive already and if found, it will point back to him; he tosses the drive separately.

Another possibility is the "buddy."

What more could be done then? If this scenario has any merit:

I would make a public appeal for person(s) with specific information to come forward, focusing on the laptop, wallet and keys...intensively publicized in the Lewisburg area and coupled with a reward and immunity from prosecution.

Since RG might have innocently interacted with a female stranger in the SoS, I would add those details and his photo to a prominently displayed poster in that building. Many antiquers make periodic visits to the area from out of state. The woman might be one of them...someone who otherwise had not made the connection (e.g. from the news she pays no attention to), but who might yet remember some detail of the conversation.

I would make another effort to determine if RG had a way out of the Lewisburg area. Even the best laid plans do not always work out. Hidden evidence sometimes surfaces. And some people botch their attempt at suicide. I would be looking for clues in Ohio...maybe the Cleveland area where RG had many acquaintances and the Lake Erie shoreline where Wiley's car was found. Possibly the Dayton area where, before his brother's body was pulled from the Great Miami River, RG was quoted as saying, "There's no trace of him at all." Heck, there is even another Lewisburg just west of Dayton.

[puzzled]

My opinion only. I don't think Ray had innocent encounters with women in two different antique shops in two different towns weeks apart. These women happen to fit the same description. I think she was one in the same and that SOMETHING ( not saying sexual) was going on. Clearly Ray was hiding whatever it was that was going on behind the scenes. Same woman in my opinion, she knew exactly who she was dealing with and that she has not come forward because she was involved. She may at this point be afraid to come forward! Think like a woman would you?

[Cloudbuster]

Great post puzzled!!! She may even been working on something with him. Seems antique shops are the places to meet. It's possible RG might of been helping her on something dangerous (think gov). She won't come forward knowing RG disappeared. She got the message I think. If she is who I think she is then I know she is a smart cookie. I don't think she would be to afraid of tackling coruption. But depending on who she might be after she knew to back off. Some things are bigger than smaller coruptions.

JMO

Originally Posted by puzzled

My opinion only. I don't think Ray had innocent encounters with women in two different antique shops in two different towns weeks apart. These women happen to fit the same description. I think she was one in the same and that SOMETHING ( not saying sexual) was going on. Clearly Ray was hiding whatever it was that was going on behind the scenes. Same woman in my opinion, she knew exactly who she was dealing with and that she has not come forward because she was involved. She may at this point be afraid to come forward! Think like a woman would you?

Well, thinking like a woman is not likely ever going to happen...sorry...another problem, for another time, lol. But I can be 'schmoozed'. Just ask day2day...if you can find her.

[Cloudbuster]

LW she has at least to the public remained silent. I remember they asked her if she had heard or seen RG and she got supposedly angry (if thats the right word to use). NOPEY she is not speaking out even as a friend on his behalf. I don't understand why, though.

In JKA's manuscript she spoke of them questioning her about her friend early on. JKA seemed to find that strange when the investagation was first going on. The focus was on this lady pretty early on. She is a smoker not that -that means anything.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Cloudbuster

LW she has at least to the public remained silent. I remember they asked her if she had heard or seen RG and she got supposedly angry (if thats the right word to use). NOPEY she is not speaking out even as a friend on his behalf. I don't understand why, though.

In JKA's manuscript she spoke of them questioning her about her friend early on. JKA seemed to find that strange when the investagation was first going on. The focus was on this lady pretty early on. She is a smoker not that -that means anything.

The Harrisburg Woman resembled the description of the MW, and had a documented prior association (not necessarily romantic) with RFG. It was reported in PB's blog that she was not questioned.

She would be part of that "inner circle" I have mentioned. So far as I know, only one person in that inner circle has ever been checked, PEF.

[sherrijean981]

Everyone keeps saying RG was seen in the SOS with a woman, but I thought the dogs never found a scent of RG to the SOS, or around it. And we don't know if they even took the dogs inside the SOS.

We don't know if they even took the dogs to the lower back door of the SOS, Water St parking meter/sidewalks across from the museum or the park benches.

[Politigal]

Originally Posted by sherrijean981

Everyone keeps saying RG was seen in the SOS with a woman, but I thought the dogs never found a scent of RG to the SOS, or around it. And we don't know if they even took the dogs inside the SOS.

We don't know if they even took the dogs to the lower back door of the SOS, Water St parking meter/sidewalks across from the museum or the park benches.

I think you are correct Sherrijean...the dogs only found Gricar's scent where his vehicle had been.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by Politigal

I think you are correct Sherrijean...the dogs only found Gricar's scent where his vehicle had been.

False, because even at the time, Dixon noted that he could have gotten into another car.

Are you going to disagree with Bosak, JJ? Because he's your Bible, isn't he?

"After the car was found by a passing state trooper, police dogs were brought to the parking lot but lost the scent very close to the car. According to Bellefonte police Officer Darrel Zaccagni, one of the K-9 handlers said that could mean Gricar got into another car. "

originally from Bosak's Q&A but found on http://www.websleuths.com/forums/arc...ex.php/t-39539

On Sunday, state police used a bloodhound to try to pick up Gricar's scent from his car, but they had no luck.
"The handler said the way the dog acted, it could have indicated [Gricar] got into another car," Dixon said. But, he continued, "We have no evidence he was planning to meet anyone in Lewisburg."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05112/492590.stm

Maybe whoever got out of the Mini got into a vehicle next to or very close to it.