Economic News

[Doc Holliday]

Good news on the housing front - new home sales (preliminary anyway) unexpectedly shoot up 11% in June (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-homes-rise-more-than-expected-in-june-2009-07-27). The largest increase since November.

On the negative side, though, the Dallas Fed manufacturing report showed an unexpectedly bad contraction, but I can't find any news reports about it yet.

This is a relatively big week for economic news. Tomorrow is consumer confidence and Friday we get the advance GDP for 2nd qt. Also, durables is in there someplace as well as the Beige Book and personal consumption.

Thursday is the regular unemployment insurance stuff, and DeLong had a good chart the other day which shows that when initial claims (seasonally adjusted) drop below 400,000, then payroll employment starts growing. Here is the chart. (http://img.skitch.com/20090723-pxdf2ar6xi5afp1qxkbythnieq.jpg)

So keep an eye on those initial claims.

[Carol25]

Good news on the housing front - new home sales (preliminary anyway) unexpectedly shoot up 11% in June (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-homes-rise-more-than-expected-in-june-2009-07-27). The largest increase since November.

On the negative side, though, the Dallas Fed manufacturing report showed an unexpectedly bad contraction, but I can't find any news reports about it yet.

This is a relatively big week for economic news. Tomorrow is consumer confidence and Friday we get the advance GDP for 2nd qt. Also, durables is in there someplace as well as the Beige Book and personal consumption.

Thursday is the regular unemployment insurance stuff, and DeLong had a good chart the other day which shows that when initial claims (seasonally adjusted) drop below 400,000, then payroll employment starts growing. Here is the chart. (http://img.skitch.com/20090723-pxdf2ar6xi5afp1qxkbythnieq.jpg)

So keep an eye on those initial claims.

What about the sales of Treasury Bonds this week? Can you explain the importance of this?

Treasury Launches Record Week of Auctions


The Treasury launched a record week of debt auctions Monday by selling $6 billion of 20-year inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, at a high yield of 2.387 percent. But investors remain worried that the global market may have difficulting digesting the $211 billion of debt to be sold this week.
The TIP sale, which was expected to do well, had a record bid-to-cover ratio—which measures how much the auction is oversubscribed—of 2.27.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590)

[flareon]

What about the sales of Treasury Bonds this week? Can you explain the importance of this?

Treasury Launches Record Week of Auctions


http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590)


I'm not sure, but I would imagine it has something to do with the debt rising and the fact that many people have cash to invest. At this point due to risk and uncertainty, they don't want to put it in stocks or real estate so they are looking for a safe instrument.

[Carol25]

I'm not sure, but I would imagine it has something to do with the debt rising and the fact that many people have cash to invest. At this point due to risk and uncertainty, they don't want to put it in stocks or real estate so they are looking for a safe instrument.
Thank you Flareon! I think it is a way of getting rid of toxic debt, but not sure if they are really going to be worth much if the dollar devalues and in 30 years, would it be worth it?

[snookums1]

Good news on the housing front - new home sales (preliminary anyway) unexpectedly shoot up 11% in June (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-homes-rise-more-than-expected-in-june-2009-07-27). The largest increase since November.

On the negative side, though, the Dallas Fed manufacturing report showed an unexpectedly bad contraction, but I can't find any news reports about it yet.

This is a relatively big week for economic news. Tomorrow is consumer confidence and Friday we get the advance GDP for 2nd qt. Also, durables is in there someplace as well as the Beige Book and personal consumption.

Thursday is the regular unemployment insurance stuff, and DeLong had a good chart the other day which shows that when initial claims (seasonally adjusted) drop below 400,000, then payroll employment starts growing. Here is the chart. (http://img.skitch.com/20090723-pxdf2ar6xi5afp1qxkbythnieq.jpg)

So keep an eye on those initial claims.WASHINGTON, July 27 (Reuters) - Sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose more than expected in June, while the inventory of homes for sale fell to a more than 11-year low, government data showed on Monday. http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/07/27/afx6703488.html

Good news. The inflated housing bubble is what started this whole mess a couple years ago. So hopefully, since all indications are that the housing market has hit bottom and turned around, the rest will follow suit.

[flareon]

Thank you Flareon! I think it is a way of getting rid of toxic debt, but not sure if they are really going to be worth much if the dollar devalues and in 30 years, would it be worth it?

That is always a risk in any long term investment. Some of these people will sell these on a secondary market if they are able if the interest rates/dollar values change in a direction where they would be better off.

[snookums1]

Here is some other good economic news.

U.S. Stocks Rise as Dow Posts Best Two-Week Gain in Nine Years


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZH0EAJbxH7w

The Economy Has Hit Bottom

Right now, it looks like second-quarter GDP growth will come in only slightly negative, and third-quarter growth will finally turn positive. Compared to the catastrophic decline we recently experienced—with GDP dropping at roughly a 6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year—that would be a gigantic improvement.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203946904574300290585964718.html?m od=googlenews_wsj

Boeing profit up 17 percent
Boeing Co posted a 17 percent increase in quarterly profit, topping expectations, on growth in defense programs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56L2OP20090722?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Expectations high for Apple's quarterly results

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56J4AX20090720?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

When you couple the above with consumer confidence and consumer spending on the rise in June, although not rosy, things are starting to look better than they have in months and months.

[Doc Holliday]

What about the sales of Treasury Bonds this week? Can you explain the importance of this?

Treasury Launches Record Week of Auctions


http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590)


What's the importance? I don't know, I mean what can you say? You can talk about any number of things. They're probably selling a ton of new treasuries because they have some fairly intense borrowing needs right now.

Here is some info on treasury auctions: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/auctfund/work/work.htm

ETA: wasn't the last auction described as a 'record auction'?

[fiver]

What about the sales of Treasury Bonds this week? Can you explain the importance of this?

Treasury Launches Record Week of Auctions


http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32170590)

It means the US is trying to fund the money Congress is spending like it's going out of style.

And investors are starting to back away from the enormity of the debt:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

[Doc Holliday]

Okay, today the Conference Board released their consumer confidence index. It fell to 46.6, down from 49.3 in June.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-confidence-falls-again-in-july-2009-07-28


Meh. It was expected to fall, but it fell more than expected.

Tomorrow is durables and the Beige Book.

[theal3]

Hmm, GM announces it won't sponsor the Buick Open next year... watching every $$.

http://sports.myway.com/news/07282009/v3241.html

That means no prize money, paying for dealers to go the event and wining and dining them etc; advertizing and so on. Saves millions and millions.

Wow, the Buick is one of the most prominent golf tourneys.

[Doc Holliday]

Durable goods.

Take out that volatile transportation stuff which distorts everything, and orders increased unexpectedly in June by 1.1%.

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/index.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awn_Wo4uqoDI

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Housing/idUSTRE56S32Z20090729

[Doc Holliday]

The Beige Book (http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2009/20090729/default.htm) is out.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-appears-less-severe-beige-book-2009-07-29

The U.S. economic recession seems to becoming less severe as the summer progresses, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report released Wednesday.

[Doc Holliday]

Another weak auction today.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090729-719812.html

[fiver]

Thanks for the updates Doc.

[Doc Holliday]

Thanks for the updates Doc.

You're welcome. I don't know what happened to that first article, because now I don't get full access to it (it says "subscribe now" and only shows part of the article, which didn't happen the first time).

So here are a couple more:

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2927514520090729

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/07/29/afx6715545.html

[Doc Holliday]

Thanks for the uplifting Link and how the heck have you been, Doc?

Frankly, Frankly, just surviving is all.

Just going day by day and week by week.....

[Doc Holliday]

First time claims (http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/073009.asp) for unemployment insurance are out. Still elevated at 584,000 (we want it to drop below 400,000).

I've started tossing the continuing claims number into the wastebasket because it seems meaningless to me now.

[Hey Paula]

Double-digit unemployment hits 41 markets:

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2009/07/27/daily42.html

[Doc Holliday]

There's a lot of that double-digit stuff going around, and it will only get worse.


Brad DeLong notes with a sigh: (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/07/eta-press-release-unemployment-insurance-weekly-claims---report.html)

We are almost past the summer seasonal spike in unemployment insurance claims, and it looks as though the recent downward spike in seasonally-adjusted claims was spurious: claims are settling at a level 50% above what they were last summer--which means that the unemployment rate is in all probability still rising.

Sigh

Not so much of a surprise.... that seems to be the pattern of the last two recessions, they rise to a peak, then decline a little, and then settle into a holding pattern and the unemployment rate creeps up and up.

Sigh.

Treasury auction went well, though.

[Freedom1]

Double-digit unemployment hits 41 markets:

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2009/07/27/daily42.html

That's not good.

[Doc Holliday]

GDP, 2 qt advance

-1.0%


http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

[Doc Holliday]

They did a bunch of revisions too - 1st qt is now -6.4

2008 3rd qt -2.7
2008 4th qt -5.4
2009 1st qt -6.4
2009 2nd qt -1.0 (advance)

http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=1&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=2007&LastYear=2009

[Doc Holliday]

Big week coming up, peoples.

ISM manufacturing on Monday and non-manufacturing on Wed. Plus we've got autos and personal income. And on Wednesday we've got ADP employment and factory orders. Thursday is my unemployment insurance numbers.

And Friday is the big day with the release of the employment situation for July, so we get to see how much the official unemployment rate has creeped up. It's either going to be 9.6 or 9.7, depending on who you ask.

[Doc Holliday]

Great stuff as usual, Doc, but can't you say something a little confrontational from time to time?

"Whigs are silly butts" or something like that?

Just to elicit the normal frenzied response?

Sorry, it's late.....

:smile:

LOL You're too funny.

I lost my taste for confrontation a long time ago. I'm a lover, not a fighter.

[Doc Holliday]

ISM report is out. http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm

A bigger increase than most people predicted and the highest reading since September.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-july-ism-factory-index-rises-to-489-2009-08-03

[Doc Holliday]

I went back and looked at the chart and it's not the highest since September, it's the highest since last August.

Anyway, June construction was also up a little bit. http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf

Most people were predicting a small decrease, IIRC.

Car sales up. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j2HyJn2K3iZu_uusL4yqhoIbaCWwD99RMIJG1

Nice graph: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SndB5ov00MI/AAAAAAAAF_I/PXSdToqgj9w/s1600-h/VehicleSalesJuly.jpg

All in all, a decent day for economic news, mostly sunny, just a few clouds. Tomorrow is some spending and income stuff.

[Doc Holliday]

ADP's employment report is out. http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_July_09.pdf

-371k..... worse than what the consensus seemed to be (-350k) but a big improvement over June and as the report says, it's the smallest decline since last October.

Monday we got ISM's manufacturing index and today in about eight minutes we get the non-manufacturing index... expected to be 48

[Doc Holliday]

ISM non-manufacturing out: 46.4

dang, it was 47 in June and they expected an increase to 48

I have to run but looking at this quickly it looks disappointing to me.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm

[dinojen]

Obama mortgage rescue: Only 9% getting help
First report by Obama administration details slow, uneven performance by firms implementing $75 billion mortgage modification program.

9%.. that's sure not much...

More homes going into foreclosure daily, more people losing their jobs.. where the heck is all these billions of dollars that had to get rushed through sitting.. and just who is sitting on it?

Kind of like no explanation for the Cash For Clunkers... where did that go... oh we need to wait to see the figures.. they are handily ready as yet... I would love to see a company survive with the accounting system the people in DC operate on.

<snippet>

Just 9% of delinquent borrowers are in trial modifications so far, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. That translates into 235,247 loans that were at least two months delinquent.

Under fire for the program's rocky start, the Obama administration says it is on pace to help up to four million homeowners over the next three years. The initiative was announced in February and the first institutions to join began accepting applications in April.



People will have lost their homes by then.. three years.. :rolleyes:



All JMVHO



http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/04/news/economy/Obama_mortgage_modification/?postversion=2009080508

[Doc Holliday]

Unemployment insurance. Initial claims better than expected at 550,000 (but still a bad number - I'll be happy when it's headed for 300k). Continuing claims are worthless (as the debate continues on re-employment vs. expiration).

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/080609.asp

Tomorrow is the big day - we get the employment situation report for July.

Net job loss is expected to be the lowest it's been in a long time, but the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 9.6 or 9.7.

Looks like we might hit 10% in September.

[beattherap]

8/13---

the number of new claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week and retail sales disappointed in july.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090813/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy_18

[Doc Holliday]

8/13---

the number of new claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week and retail sales disappointed in july.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090813/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy_18

Why thank you beattherap. I had given up on this thread (I wasn't sure if it was bothering people).

Initial claims are still high and increased slightly from last week.

Continuing claims are lower, but how much is expiration and how much re-employment is anybody's guess.

Those high initial claims means it's still a very miserable labor market. http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/081309.asp

Retail sales down; most had predicted an increase. http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Mostly cloudy with a chance of heavy rain is today's report.

[Doc Holliday]

Initial claims are up from the previous week, higher than expected (grrrr!).

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/082009.asp

Sheesh. All together now, ready?: "jobless recovery" (says the board in unison). And what's worse, many people are exhausting benefits, so they are left with zero income.

The leading economic index increased .6% and that's just about what was expected. http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

I really really really can't wait for those initial claims to drop into the 400k's and head for 300k, because that would mean improvements in the labor markets.

[flareon]

Initial claims are up from the previous week, higher than expected (grrrr!).

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/082009.asp

Sheesh. All together now, ready?: "jobless recovery" (says the board in unison). And what's worse, many people are exhausting benefits, so they are left with zero income.

The leading economic index increased .6% and that's just about what was expected. http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1

I really really really can't wait for those initial claims to drop into the 400k's and head for 300k, because that would mean improvements in the labor markets.


I saw that. I think that was the fear of many people that it would be a jobless recovery. Someone I saw today said they don't expect any kind of significant change in the employment numbers until the third quarter of next year. God, that is going to mean a depressing holiday period which will put more strain on the retail sector.

[Doc Holliday]

I saw that. I think that was the fear of many people that it would be a jobless recovery. Someone I saw today said they don't expect any kind of significant change in the employment numbers until the third quarter of next year. God, that is going to mean a depressing holiday period which will put more strain on the retail sector.

Yeah, it seems to me the holiday period won't be filled with a lot of joy. I also keep hearing whispering of an impending tsunami of people who have exhausted their already-extended unemployment benefits.

Anyway, the state and regional report is out today. Looks like we have a record of 17 wins, 26 losses, and 7 ties. Michigan still leads the pack, even though they saw a slight improvement from June.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.t03.htm

[Doc Holliday]

A glimmer of sunlight. Existing home sales much higher than anticipated: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaCRVTkj_Idk

CR: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/existing-home-sales-increase-in-july.html

[flareon]

Retailers report sales declines for August

http://www.pennlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/national-21/1251996509175960.xml&storylist=national

1.3 million to lose jobless benefits by year's end

http://www.pennlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/national-21/125200654117130.xml&storylist=national

One wonders whether this trend to discounters will continue after the economy recovers. Even when people have more disposable income, it doesn't make sense to pay a higher price for the same item.

I also wonder how long some of these department stores can hold on. They are already cutting to the bone and still can't seem to do well. There will be a domino effect if some of these stores start folding and it is going to have a major impact on mall realty. I know many malls in my area still haven't been able to fill the space of stores that have closed in the past.

[orangetaffy]

RI governor: State to lay off 1,000 workers

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVQ7aK238JhNqa-R-VXdTcyRE75wD9AG2H100

[Doc Holliday]

I get drawn back here whenever somebody resurrects my thread.

Unemployment insurance numbers were dismal today (although dismal is getting to be the norm). Initial claims higher than expected even though lower than the previous week. http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/090309.asp

Sinking towards 300k is what we want; they seem to be stuck in the high 500k's. And I'll continue to wear a frown until they at least get below 400k.

ISM's service sector report was out today: service sector still contracting. http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm The manufacturing report was out the other day and showed expansion for the first time in GodKnowsHowLong.

Tomorrow is our big day as the employment situation report comes out from the BLS. The official unemployment rate for August will probably be 9.5% (that's the U3 number).

[orangetaffy]

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Bank regulators closed four Midwestern banks and one in Arizona on Friday, bringing to 89 the number of U.S. banks to fail this year as deteriorating loans continue to take their toll on financial institutions."

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE58404N20090905

[orangetaffy]

3 more down: Bank failure tally hits 92

"Regulators close banks in Illinois, Minnesota and Washington at a cost of more than $2 billion to the FDIC"

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/11/news/economy/bank_failure/?postversion=2009091207

[orangetaffy]

I like to keep en eye on this site... The numbers sure change quickly.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Carol25]

For a change of tone, I came across this. For your listening enjoyment. (virus free:smile:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO2eh6f5Go0