uemployment rate inches up..

[Doc Holliday]

to 9.5%

That's the smallest monthly increase in the unemployment rate since last year.

However, job losses were higher than analysts had predicted. Last month weren't job losses lower than predicted but the unemployment rate higher than predicted?

Go figure.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Anyway, I'll take 9.5 over 10.0, for now.

[Doc Holliday]

Still high numbers in UI.

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/070209.asp

Initial claims are still over 600k.

Hmm.

[Freedom1]

to 9.5%

That's the smallest monthly increase in the unemployment rate since last year.

However, job losses were higher than analysts had predicted. Last month weren't job losses lower than predicted but the unemployment rate higher than predicted?

Go figure.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Anyway, I'll take 9.5 over 10.0, for now.

We'll soon be at 10% for the national unemployment rate. The "stimulus" didn't work of course. No one really thought it would. This was just a way to get money into the hands of democratic supporters. It will get worse before it gets better. We now have several cities across the country at "depression" unemployment rates.

[Doc Holliday]

Hey Doc. I've been looking for the Michigan figures for June. Are they out yet?


Not from the BLS. Not until a couple of weeks from now when they come out with their regional and state report.

Looks like July 17: http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/200907_sched.htm

[Doc Holliday]

That's what I though, but figured I'd ask. Any bets as to when we hit 15%? Or better yet the all time high of 16.9. I figure we should be there about September.


I don't have a clue. I've discovered it's pretty hard to predict movements in the official unemployment rates.

Even this month, the consensus was for an increase in the national rate to 9.6. They were wrong. It was lower.

And yet, I'm not hearing a lot of joy about the fact that the unemployment rate "only" climbed to 9.5, because other parts of the report (like total job losses) were much worse than predicted.

Anyway, when will you guys hit 15%? Go get an old Magic 8-ball and ask it and you will probably have a good chance of beating what the experts say.

[Doc Holliday]

Here's the breakdown into the different measures: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

U4, which includes discouraged workers, is now at 10%.

This article: http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/07/unemployment_is_really_10.php

brought up an interesting point. When it looks like things are turning around, then the unemployment rate (U3) might spike because of discouraged workers suddenly jumping back into the fray.

[flareon]

Inflation inches up as well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1453457720090714

Who didn't expect this to happen? It is almost as though Obama looked at every mistake that can hinder an economy and then proceeded to do every one of them. It would almost be funny if so many people weren't suffering.

[Doc Holliday]

Initial claims drop to the lowest level since January, but I guess we can't read anything into it because of 'layoff-timing issues'.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-lowest-since-january-200971685200

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/071609.asp

[shiloh2000]

We're inching towards a new depression IMO and it won't be long.

[TBIBeg]

Nah, no need for an 8 ball. I was here when it hit 16.9 in Nov. of 82. It's been steadily trending upward with no end in site. I'll still use mid Sept as my prediction. This state is bleeding to death.

My bf moved to Texas in December from Michigan. He said they're rolling up the carpets everywhere and jobs are very, very few and far between.


:(

[Re-Poe]

Gloom and doom. imo

:crying:

[flareon]

I'm right there with you. Inflation is inching up, the commercial real estate bubble is poised to burst and cap & tax and the heathcare tax grab is going to bring this economy to a screeching halt. IMO

You're right and don't forget the credit card problem is about to explode soon too.

[Doc Holliday]

Well Michigan still leads the pack at 15.1% for June. That's going to go higher yet.

15.2%. The regional and state (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm) report is out.

Looks like Michigan had the biggest monthly jump at 1.1. Two more of those and you'll slip past that 16.9 and head into Great Depression levels.

[MiamiNice1]

Michigan unemployment tops 15%

Government says jobless rate is the highest for a state since 1984.

Rate tops 10% in 15 states and District of Columbia.


http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm?postversion=2009071710


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Michigan became the first state in 25 years to suffer an unemployment rate exceeding 15%, according to a report released Friday by the Labor Department.

Michigan-------15.2%
Rhode Island---12.4%
Oregon--------12.2%
S. Carolina-----12.1%
Nevada--------12.0%
California------11.6%


:ohmy:

[Doc Holliday]

Brad DeLong opines: Fasten Your Seatbelts for the Jobless Recovery... (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/07/fasten-your-seatbelts-for-the-jobless-recovery.html)


Today--unless we get much faster real GDP growth than currently looks to be in the cards--we are headed for a jobless recovery. The answer to the economic question--was the stimulus sufficient to rapidly return the economy to something like normal unemployment?--is likely to be: "h--- no, it was much too small..."


A jobless recovery with unemployment in double digits? That doesn't sound fun.

[Carol25]

Brad DeLong opines: Fasten Your Seatbelts for the Jobless Recovery... (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/07/fasten-your-seatbelts-for-the-jobless-recovery.html)





A jobless recovery with unemployment in double digits? That doesn't sound fun.

I know what is sounds like and it is'nt a recession.

[Doc Holliday]

I know what is sounds like and it is'nt a recession.

It was a 55-month lag in the last recession. Let's hope we don't see that lag this time. That would be January of 2014?

[Doc Holliday]

But the last recession wasn't "enganced" with a cap & tax boondoggle that will result in more job loss and a health care tax policy that will result in lower tax revenue and more job loss.

Factor that in and you're basically looking at Russia 1950's.

IMO

There's no way to decrease the amount of a negative externality without causing at least a short term loss/decrease in output. That's the whole point, after all.

But economists will tell you that 'cap and trade' strategies are the most efficient because they use market mechanisms. This is much better than 'command and control' style regulations.

I haven't yet read the Waxman Bill, so I don't know how much is in there that's meant to offset the losses with gains in other areas ('green energy').

I don't know anything about the health care bill, but I have to think that even though it's beneficial in the long run, in the short run there may be significant adjustment costs. Anyone?

In the midst of an economic downturn (especially one of this magnitude), it's a bad idea to raise taxes on anybody, in my opinion. Save the tax increases for when the economy is back at full employment.

[Veritas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2MjQ17kDng&feature=player_embedded

[flareon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2MjQ17kDng&feature=player_embedded

That is too funny. Just wait a day and that message will change again.

[Truberry]

We'll soon be at 10% for the national unemployment rate. The "stimulus" didn't work of course. No one really thought it would. This was just a way to get money into the hands of democratic supporters. It will get worse before it gets better. We now have several cities across the country at "depression" unemployment rates.
I couldn't agree more that the unemployment rate will rise to 10% or above that. Here we are, 8 months already practically and no relief in site. Nothing has really changed for the good, in fact, things are much worse it's just that the media is keeping the bad news from us. Those of us, such as Doc who can do our own research and find the unemployment rates are better off for knowing, we have to keep each other informed, painful as it might be, knowledge is power, even if it means exposing a failed stimulus, Congress and Leadership. IMO the unemployment rate should be primetime headlines news 24/7 until the Gov't hands over the saved and created jobs it promised Nov. 2008 and all throughout the campaign.

[theal3]

Oregon ranks with MI as one of the highest unemployment rates since last Bush Bomb in Sept: reports today and for last week, on stimulus on state and local paper, and hometown radio stations, jobs created, unemployment DOWN. We went from 6.5 to 12 since Sept....and hit 10 in Dec..... so good news, now at 9...... normal 6.5.

[Doc Holliday]

Theal was probably talking about a local/regional rate.

Oregon's rate has gone from 11.9 in March, to 11.8 in April to 12.2 in May and staying at 12.2 in June, with a net employment loss of 7200 from May-June. State numbers get revised a lot - Oregon's preliminary rate for May was 12.4%. So stay tuned.

Back in May of 2008, the rate was 5.7%. That's probably still on the upper side of full employment, but gaze upon that number longingly because it will be years before we tread in that land again, in my opinion.

Today's unemployment insurance stuff is out. Initial claims are up, but the distorting effects of layoff patterns are still in play:

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/072309.asp

[Freedom1]

Don't know about Chicago, but Michigan is at 14.1% and nationwide results at end of July are expected to be in double digits. No link.

Michigan is at 15.2% with predictions of hitting 20%.