Will this Mystery Have an Ending?

[Amused]

As a resident of Centre County, I find myself coming here often to read.
I have nothing to contribute and know so little compared to most of you.

I was wondering if any of you think we will ever find out what happened to Mr Gricar?

[Politigal]

I think all of us here have hope that someday we'll learn what really happened to Ray Gricar.

But realistically.....I don't see that happening with the current DA and certainly not with the investigation to date.

I think an entire new team of investigators - starting from square one - *might* be able to crack the case.

[7psig]

I've been trying to send you a message politigal, but you don't accept them. I have a friend who is connected who says Gricar was fond of the ladies. We think Gricar may have got caught up in some afternoon delight, if you know what I mean. And stun guns leave no trace.

[puzzled]

Please tell us more. Stun guns leave no trace but they usually do not kill a person either. Please tell us as much as you possibly can.

[J. J. in Phila]

Short answer, yes. I think walkaway can either be greatly weakened or greatly strengthened.

A series of blogs is continuing about what more can be done.

[2-B]

Realistically speaking, cases don't get solved by strengthening or weakening theories. They get solved by sufficient proof.

How many police departments are sitting on cases where LE "knows" who committed a crime but can't file charges because they lack sufficient proof to make charges stick?

And how many cases of alleged walkaway remain controversial? At the 15 year anniversary, the declared walkaway in Mel Wiley's case was still a source of controversy. Other declared walkaways have proven to be homicides, with proof coming sometimes decades after the person allegedly walked.

The Gricar case can be solved, but IMO at this point it will likely take a cold case unit with totally new and totally objective eyes to begin the investigation all over again, going back to the beginning. What Ray Gricar needs most is a cold case investigator who becomes so obsessed with finding out what happened to Ray that he/she can't eat, sleep, breathe, or otherwise rest comfortably until the mystery is solved. That kind of investigator gets cold cases solved, when the evidence is there to solve them.

My opinion, to which I am entitled.

[Politigal]

awesome posts 2-B & Logic

[Amused]

I've been trying to send you a message politigal, but you don't accept them. I have a friend who is connected who says Gricar was fond of the ladies. We think Gricar may have got caught up in some afternoon delight, if you know what I mean. And stun guns leave no trace.


hmm.... a ladies man.
I don't know how to say this politely, but xxx seems an odd choice for a ladies man. He was nice looking, imo. A nice looking man in that position would probably have no problem attracting women.

[2-B]

hmm.... a ladies man.


Hi Amused,

I tend to share your skepticism with regard to the "ladies' man" rumors. Seems to me RG was pretty much a serial monogamist. By all accounts, he got along well with women and enjoyed the company of women, but that doesn't necessarily translate into "fond of ladies" and "afternoon delight." The same rumor mill that produced this also gave us the "Ray was gay" gossip. Seems like those rumors would have to be mutually exclusive, no? :wink:

[sherrijean981]

What Ray Gricar needs most is a cold case investigator who becomes so obsessed with finding out what happened to Ray that he/she can't eat, sleep, breathe, or otherwise rest comfortably until the mystery is solved. That kind of investigator gets cold cases solved, when the evidence is there to solve them.

My opinion, to which I am entitled.


I saw a show where there was a man just like that. Took him 30 years to solve it but solve it he did!

[2-B]

I saw a show where there was a man just like that. Took him 30 years to solve it but solve it he did!

It's amazing what that kind of single-minded dedication to a case can make happen, isn't it? I've seen quite few cases solved by that kind of investigator, usually someone whose attention isn't divided by having to deal with umpteen other cases. One was a sort of rogue cop type who got fascinated by the disappearance of Holly Piiranean (sp?), a young girl who went missing in the same area Molly Bish later disappeared from. He eventually wondered if the two cases were linked and wound up helping to find Molly's remains.

[kelloggirl]

Sadly, I think the odds of this case ever getting solved are slim to none. Even in the event a body is found, at this point it will be skeletized remains, and unless cause of death is obvious like a gunshot wound, it might be difficult to prove homicide or suicide, and evidence would be comprised, at best. And finding the perpetrator? Given the many missteps in early days of the investigation (biggest one being not interviewing everyone at the Courthouse in the days after the disappearance), unless the perp literally left a calling card, the chances in finding the truth are less than zero, IMO.

How very very sad. Where ever Ray is, I hope he is at peace.

[J. J. in Phila]

Realistically speaking, cases don't get solved by strengthening or weakening theories. They get solved by sufficient proof.

How many police departments are sitting on cases where LE "knows" who committed a crime but can't file charges because they lack sufficient proof to make charges stick?

And how many cases of alleged walkaway remain controversial? At the 15 year anniversary, the declared walkaway in Mel Wiley's case was still a source of controversy. Other declared walkaways have proven to be homicides, with proof coming sometimes decades after the person allegedly walked.

The Gricar case can be solved, but IMO at this point it will likely take a cold case unit with totally new and totally objective eyes to begin the investigation all over again, going back to the beginning. What Ray Gricar needs most is a cold case investigator who becomes so obsessed with finding out what happened to Ray that he/she can't eat, sleep, breathe, or otherwise rest comfortably until the mystery is solved. That kind of investigator gets cold cases solved, when the evidence is there to solve them.

My opinion, to which I am entitled.

Realistically, there are other groups out there that might help investigate unexplained deaths/murders if it can be shown that a death did occur. UTR noted the Vidocq Society is one of them (and I'm previewing a future blog).

A cold case investigator or (investigators) may be more interested in a case of probable murder than of possible walkaway.

[2-B]

Realistically, there are other groups out there that might help investigate unexplained deaths/murders if it can be shown that a death did occur. UTR noted the Vidocq Society is one of them (and I'm previewing a future blog).

A cold case investigator or (investigators) may be more interested in a case of probable murder than of possible walkaway.

The Vidocq Society IS in essence a cold case unit:

[M]embers of The Vidocq Society honor Eugène François Vidocq, the brilliant 18th century French detective who served the Sûreté, by applying their collective forensic skills and experience to "cold case" homicides and unsolved deaths. At Vidocq meetings Vidocq Society Members (V.S.M.'s) evaluate, investigate, refocus, revivify and solve the unsolved deaths officially brought to them.

http://www.vidocq.org/

Their focus has always been unsolved deaths, but they will consider disappearances:

The presenter of a cold-case murder or disappearance at a Vidocq Society meeting could be:

* a law enforcement professional who has investigated the murder over the years and continues to carry it on his caseload;
* a Vidocq Society member; or
* a private investigator hired by the murder victim's family.

http://www.vidocq.org/present.html

Of course, Vidocq will work only with full support of law enforcement. And therein lies the rub for the Gricar case. BPD has been reluctant to have any other entity take over the case.

[sherrijean981]

Sadly, I think the odds of this case ever getting solved are slim to none. Even in the event a body is found, at this point it will be skeletized remains, and unless cause of death is obvious like a gunshot wound, it might be difficult to prove homicide or suicide, and evidence would be comprised, at best. And finding the perpetrator? Given the many missteps in early days of the investigation (biggest one being not interviewing everyone at the Courthouse in the days after the disappearance), unless the perp literally left a calling card, the chances in finding the truth are less than zero, IMO.

How very very sad. Where ever Ray is, I hope he is at peace.


If teeth still remain, maybe dental work could be checked? I thought they could do DNA with the bones, the bone marrow, or whatever it is called?

Isn't that how they help someone when doing a bone marrow transplant, if the person is a match? If they match I would assume they had the same DNA, blood type?

I am just rambling but was thinking about the young girl in our area who went through it and was in the hospital a year afterwards but still passed away. Very sad.

[2-B]

If teeth still remain, maybe dental work could be checked? I thought they could do DNA with the bones, the bone marrow, or whatever it is called?

Isn't that how they help someone when doing a bone marrow transplant, if the person is a match? If they match I would assume they had the same DNA, blood type?

I am just rambling but was thinking about the young girl in our area who went through it and was in the hospital a year afterwards but still passed away. Very sad.

I think Kelloggirl is saying that even if we could find skeletonized remains identifiable as Ray's, identifying cause and manner of death would be difficult at this point.

Little Caylee's autopsy report just came back this week, showing essentially . . . nothing . . . from her little skeletonized bones. That's going to make it tougher to mount a death penalty case against her mother. I think that's what KG is getting at, if I understand her correctly.

[kelloggirl]

I think Kelloggirl is saying that even if we could find skeletonized remains identifiable as Ray's, identifying cause and manner of death would be difficult at this point.

Little Caylee's autopsy report just came back this week, showing essentially . . . nothing . . . from her little skeletonized bones. That's going to make it tougher to mount a death penalty case against her mother. I think that's what KG is getting at, if I understand her correctly.

You got it, 2-B! Yes, even though we might know that Ray is no longer alive, I'm sure the questions as to how and who would remain.

[sherrijean981]

You got it, 2-B! Yes, even though we might know that Ray is no longer alive, I'm sure the questions as to how and who would remain.


I just read a true crime book and they were able to test the remains of a woman's children. The bone marrow was tested and there were all kinds of drugs in it, showing the woman was poisoning them over many years.

I understood about not knowing how he would have died, if drowned, smothered, but head injuries would show cracks, gun shot, even broken bones in some cases.

[J. J. in Phila]

LW, first, the initial search was one the most extensive ones in Central Pennsylvania; it yielded nothing. (Just compare it with the Rosa case.)

Second, there is a likelihood that, if this was murder, it wasn't committed in Central Pennsylvania.

Third, there is a very real possibility that RFG met someone in Lewisburg. That someone might:

A. Be the killer.

B. Might know where RFG went after Lewisburg. That link becomes the critical one in explaining what happened to RFG.

[2-B]

LW, first, the initial search was one the most extensive ones in Central Pennsylvania; it yielded nothing. (Just compare it with the Rosa case.)


Looking at other searches for MP in Central PA, I'd call your description of the search for RG as "one of the most extensive ones" inaccurate. Gricar got standard fare in Central PA for cases where LE suspects more than a temporary, voluntary absence.

In Elaine Pierson's disappearance, helicopter searches were conducted for two days (a Saturday and Sunday). Official ground searches were conducted for two days (the following Wednesday and Thursday) and then suspended because of heavy rain on Friday. Private search teams found her body that Saturday.

In Cindy Song's disappearance, Ferguson Twp. police and the FBI conducted ground searches and air searches, putting in more than 160 man hours in just one day of searching.

In Brenda Condon's disappearance, during the first week after her she went missing, both helicopters and dog teams were used to search for her. Brenda also had flyers disseminated by truckers--an idea suggested here some time ago for RG and "pooh poohed" as "too late" by certain folks now praising the suggestion that flyers be put out now but only in a very limited venue.

From what I can see, Katherine Dolan Heckel and Josette Rose Brungart had similar searches conducted for them.

Even teenagers with a history of running away get helicopters and organized ground searches.

The only "extra" Gricar got was the river search, and that came about because of the specifics of his case, the proximity of the river and the history of his brother's suicide.

If anything, what's surprising to many is that the search for Ray Gricar was essentially only standard fare. He was, after all, the highest law enforcement official in one of PA's 67 counties. Surprising that we didn't at least see some kind of search and command center as we've seen in so many cases, with calls for organized volunteer search parties. I remember as hunting season approached in the fall of 2005, LE hoped that some hunter might just "stumble" across RG's remains. Why nothing organized instead of the hope for stumbling?

As for Rosa, that's a weak case for comparison. It seems evident LE in that case knew early on that Rosa had some rather nefarious things he might well be walking away from. LE's call for information on his whereabouts was likely more about finding a potential crime perpetrator than about finding a potential crime victim or accident victim, IMO. Of course the search for Rosa would look different than a search for the typical missing person.

[Politigal]

Since RG was the DA, a criminal investigation should have been first & foremost...

It wasn't.

[J. J. in Phila]

2-B this was substantially more than two days of helicopter searches.

In the Condon case, that was in a pre-Internet environment and the coverage was never as great as it was in the Gricar case. It was never the top news story in Centre County for the year.

BTW: The Vidocq Society blog is now up.

[2-B]

2-B this was substantially more than two days of helicopter searches.

In the Condon case, that was in a pre-Internet environment and the coverage was never as great as it was in the Gricar case. It was never the top news story in Centre County for the year.

BTW: The Vidocq Society blog is now up.

JJ, extensive ground and air searches took place in all the cases I cited. That's what RG got. The search for Gricar was not "one of the most extensive in Central PA." It was pretty standard fare. And it was less extensive than searches we've seen for other missing people.

You were talking searches, not media coverage, so let's not play bait and switch, okay?

Just once, it would be refreshing to see you say, "I probably shouldn't have said [whatever]. I was wrong about that," "I didn't know [whatever], or "I hadn't thought about [whatever]" instead of digging yourself into a deeper hole.

[2-B]

Since RG was the DA, a criminal investigation should have been first & foremost...

It wasn't.

I agree, Pgal. If memory serves, PF's brother told her that Friday evening she shouldn't be paranoid about RG's lateness/her inability to reach him because of this very reason. TF was astute enough to see that RG's job could place him in jeopardy.

Obviously, BPD recognized this as well. But that possibility played out against DZ's admission that those who found the car with the smoke smell and the cigarette butts nearby thought RG was just off for a "wild weekend." That, and the echoes of Roy's suicide resonating from the river/park/abandoned car. So RG became someone who might have just taken off, might have committed suicide, or might have been the victim of foul play . . . same as he seems to remain four years later.

[J. J. in Phila]

JJ, extensive ground and air searches took place in all the cases I cited. That's what RG got. The search for Gricar was not "one of the most extensive in Central PA." It was pretty standard fare. And it was less extensive than searches we've seen for other missing people.

You were talking searches, not media coverage, so let's not play bait and switch, okay?

Just once, it would be refreshing to see you say, "I probably shouldn't have said [whatever]. I was wrong about that," "I didn't know [whatever], or "I hadn't thought about [whatever]" instead of digging yourself into a deeper hole.

Then let's talk about the searches, by car and air of 192, the bank searches, diver searches, boat search (with a cadaver dog), and air searches (helicopter and fixed wing) of the Susquehanna, the canvassing for witnesses in Lewisburg. Oh, and yes, the scent dog and the walk through of the house.

You are the one that mentioned "flyers," which is part of the media. In RFG's case, they were not needed. More of the old [i]bait and switch[/b] from 2-B.

[2-B]

Then let's talk about the searches, by car and air of 192, the bank searches, diver searches, boat search (with a cadaver dog), and air searches (helicopter and fixed wing) of the Susquehanna, the canvassing for witnesses in Lewisburg. Oh, and yes, the scent dog and the walk through of the house.

You are the one that mentioned "flyers," which is part of the media. In RFG's case, they were not needed. More of the old [i]bait and switch[/b] from 2-B.

Again, JJ, the cases I listed had air and ground searches, including dogs.

Perhaps you should have read my original post on this subject more closely:

The only "extra" Gricar got was the river search, and that came about because of the specifics of his case, the proximity of the river and the history of his brother's suicide.

The river search obviously included the boat and dive teams, the cadaver dog on the boat, and the search of the river banks. As pointed out, that search was specific and peculiar to RG's case. If Cindy Song had had a sister who committed suicide by jumping into a river and if Cindy had disappeared near a river, she surely would have gotten the same river searches RG did. Same with the other missing persons in my list. Their circumstances didn't warrant any river searches.

Logic is correct: a walk through of the house isn't a search for the missing person. It's a search for forensic evidence. And those same kind of evidence searches were done in these other cases as well, Elaine Pierson's house, the tavern where Brenda Condon worked, Cindy Song's apartment (despite the problems caused by her family's cleaning of the apartment), etc.

We're not talking about searching for evidence, but searching for a missing person. That's why I mentioned the flyers that went out with truckers in the Brenda Condon case. That's not media coverage--flyers are a search aid, designed to get people to look for the missing person or the remains of the missing person. That may certainly be a by-product of media coverage, but that's not the primary reasons media cover a missing person story. They cover such stories a) because the stories are news and b) because they generate ratings/sales.

Nope, the search for Ray Gricar was on a par with searches for other missing people in Central PA over an approximate twenty year span. No need to try spin it into something it wasn't. It was what it was, a search typical of what any other citizen of central Pennsylvania gets if he/she goes missing under suspicious circumstances.

What it was not: some extensive, heroic efforts of the sort we've seen in some missing persons' cases.


Was a command center ever set up?

Were community volunteers ever organized into search teams?

Was Texas Equusearch ever called in to help?

Was the Sund/Carrington Foundation or any other similar group that aids in searches for missing people ever called in?

Were dog teams employed beyond the Sunday visit to the SOS lot?

Were flyers ever distributed by truckers and other means to reach beyond the environs of Lewisburg?


Those are the kinds of things we see in extensive searches for missing people. To the best of my knowledge, none of those things occurred in the Gricar case.

[2-B]

Just wanted to bring this over from the Project Jason site. I'm not sure 18 Wheel Angels existed when Brenda Condon went missing, but those who cared about her obviously used a similar method of searching for her:

18 Wheel Angels is an all volunteer program in which truck drivers volunteer their time and resources to help locate missing loved ones.

An 18 Wheel Angel is a compassionate person, who, while traveling the highways, helps to locate missing loved ones by placing posters of them along the way.

http://www.projectjason.org/18wheel.shtml

To date, 18 Wheel Angels has run 146 campaigns. Thirty-nine of those cases have been resolved, with the missing person being located alive or recovered deceased.

Such a campaign could have been/still might be useful in the Gricar case.

If as some believe RG walked away from his life and was/is elsewhere in the U.S., distributing posters in other parts of PA and in other states would encourage people outside of the Lewisburg area to be on the lookout for him.

Early in the case, this idea might have been especially useful to reach those who were in Lewisburg from out of town/out of state the weekend that Gricar went missing. (Someone visiting Lewisburg from Connecticut, for instance, may have seen something he/she doesn't even realize is important to the disappearance. He/she may have returned home and never even heard that a district attorney from Centre County went missing that weekend.)

It's possible it may take only a single clue to start unraveling this mystery. Widespread poster distribution is just one small thing that could have been done to search for Ray Gricar, but wasn't. My opinion only.

[sherrijean981]

I think you might find this article interesting. Not only a 30 year old cold case was solved but they used smeared finger prints to solve the case.

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/may09/iafis_050809.html

[J. J. in Phila]

LW, the river searches, including the air searches were obviously done after the Mini was found. Same with the rather extensive canvassing and the motel checks. The police actually did an air search of 192 again after the Mini was found; I was surprised to read that.

Flyers have some uses, i.e. keeping the case alive and in the media, blanketing a small geographic area, but unless you have a about 250,000,000 and a method of distributing them nationwide, they are not too useful. Distributing them at major league baseball games may fall into that small geographic area category (and it assumes that RFG is alive and attending).

Media works a lot better, even the Internet.

[2-B]

LW, the river searches, including the air searches were obviously done after the Mini was found. Same with the rather extensive canvassing and the motel checks. The police actually did an air search of 192 again after the Mini was found; I was surprised to read that.

Flyers have some uses, i.e. keeping the case alive and in the media, blanketing a small geographic area, but unless you have a about 250,000,000 and a method of distributing them nationwide, they are not too useful. Distributing them at major league baseball games may fall into that small geographic area category (and it assumes that RFG is alive and attending).

Media works a lot better, even the Internet.

The motel checks were done by Lara and Barbara, private individuals with close ties to RG. Obviously those two women alone could not do an broad enough canvassing of motels, or Buehner would not have been calling for a more extensive motel search years after RG's disappearance.

Had there been an organized search and command center, groups could have been formed to do a more effective search at the time, before motel records became lost, destroyed, etc.

On the issue of flyers, there's a clear method of widespread distribution outlined on this very thread. It's proven, and it works. (At the time of Gricar's disappearance, I never even saw a single flyer in Centre County. Any distribution must have been narrowed to the Lewisburg area.) The 18 Wheel Angels has a distinct advantage over distribution at Cleveland Indian games. Ball games aren't a bad idea, but that limits the focus of using flyers to a very narrow chance, the pure luck that if alive, RG will show up at an Indians game. Meanwhile, if he's alive, RG has to be somewhere 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Unless he's being aided by someone and hidden away somewhere, he's got to buy milk, get gas, have dealings with clerks and other business people, etc. He has to live somewhere and have neighbors. How often on America's Most Wanted or the old Unsolved Mysteries do neighbors wind up being the ones to call in when recognizing a missing or wanted person?

Similarly, if RG is deceased, flyers could reach--even now--people who may have been seen something on the day he disappeared but who did not realize RG was even missing. Such people could hold the key to solving this mystery and not even know it.

The media do not always "work better." Some people don't watch TV, listen to the radio, or use the internet. Our own Logic does not watch TV or listen to the radio. Scott Peterson got lucky--for a while--because Amber Frey didn't watch anything but cartoons on TV and had never heard that Laci Peterson was missing. OTOH, she might have seen a flyer at the checkout at the 7-11.

The trick is to use all available means of searching for someone who's missing. That's what "leaving no stone unturned" means.

[J. J. in Phila]

The motel checks were done by Lara and Barbara, private individuals with close ties to RG. Obviously those two women alone could not do an broad enough canvassing of motels, or Buehner would not have been calling for a more extensive motel search years after RG's disappearance.


Where they mentioned running into the police doing the same thing. :rolleyes:



Had there been an organized search and command center, groups could have been formed to do a more effective search at the time, before motel records became lost, destroyed, etc.


There are not exactly 20,000 motels in Lewisburg and surrounding area. My mapping program says 21 in a ten mile radius of Lewisburg.


On the issue of flyers, there's a clear method of widespread distribution outlined on this very thread. It's proven, and it works. (At the time of Gricar's disappearance, I never even saw a single flyer in Centre County. Any distribution must have been narrowed to the Lewisburg area.) The 18 Wheel Angels has a distinct advantage over distribution at Cleveland Indian games. Ball games aren't a bad idea, but that limits the focus of using flyers to a very narrow chance, the pure luck that if alive, RG will show up at an Indians game. Meanwhile, if he's alive, RG has to be somewhere 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Unless he's being aided by someone and hidden away somewhere, he's got to buy milk, get gas, have dealings with clerks and other business people, etc. He has to live somewhere and have neighbors. How often on America's Most Wanted or the old Unsolved Mysteries do neighbors wind up being the ones to call in when recognizing a missing or wanted person?


AMW and UM generally got responded because people saw the person on television. How may million flyers will have to be disributed to match that.


Similarly, if RG is deceased, flyers could reach--even now--people who may have been seen something on the day he disappeared but who did not realize RG was even missing. Such people could hold the key to solving this mystery and not even know it.

The media do not always "work better." Some people don't watch TV, listen to the radio, or use the internet. Our own Logic does not watch TV or listen to the radio. Scott Peterson got lucky--for a while--because Amber Frey didn't watch anything but cartoons on TV and had never heard that Laci Peterson was missing. OTOH, she might have seen a flyer at the checkout at the 7-11.


"For a while" and "might" are the keys to your answer; Ms. Frey didn't see a flyer, but caught the news.


The trick is to use all available means of searching for someone who's missing. That's what "leaving no stone unturned" means.

The trick is to use the most effective means. I'd feel better about Internet sites than trying to put up flyers nationally (or internationally).

[2-B]

Where they mentioned running into the police doing the same thing. :rolleyes:

There clearly wasn't enough manpower to do a full search, or Buehner would not have noted that the kind of search he had in mind would take real commitment, full manpower, and a discussion about forming a Gricar task force to pull it off. :rolleyes:

Frankly, the search Buehner suggests would also have involved LE coming clean with any canvassers to some extent that they would be looking for registration by a woman fitting the LMW description, something not made public in April 2005.

There are not exactly 20,000 motels in Lewisburg and surrounding area. My mapping program says 21 in a ten mile radius of Lewisburg.

Sure, if you and your mapping program want to cherry pick, you can get it down to what looks like a small number. But weren't you the one who suggested RG might have gone to WILKES-BARRE Friday night and then returned to Lewisburg? :rolleyes:

There are more than 100 motels within a 35 mile radius of Lewisburg and nearly 200 within a 45 mile radius. That's why Buehner says it would take some serious manpower to do a thorough canvassing.

Whether you're looking for RG registering or for a LMW type registering, canvassing 100-200 motels is quite a job. An organized search and command center could have set up groups to go do that in an efficient way.

Do you have a problem with that?



AMW and UM generally got responded because people saw the person on television. How may million flyers will have to be disributed to match that.

Do you have a problem with the fact that flyer programs have been proven to help in the search for missing people?

"For a while" and "might" are the keys to your answer; Ms. Frey didn't see a flyer, but caught the news.

No, she didn't. She learned about Laci Peterson and about who Scott might be from a cop friend she had.

The trick is to use the most effective means. I'd feel better about Internet sites than trying to put up flyers nationally (or internationally).

What you don't get is that there's no single "most effective" means. Using every means available is the key, because no one knows in any given case who holds the missing pieces to the mystery or what it will take to reach that person or those people.

If missing persons cases were a one-size-fits-all deal, we could just use whatever "most effective means" JJ claims is most effective and they'd all come home (or at least be recovered).

It doesn't work that way.

But then, as you've admitted, you didn't come into this case as a true crime buff. That's not your background. You even admitted it wasn't the mystery of what happened to Ray Gricar that has you involved in this case, but the concern that (since you were a political type) that "if it happened to him," it could happen to you.

[Politigal]

be still my heart....lol

[Amused]

lol....
you read my mind about B&B's in the surrounding area.
There are quite a few.

[2-B]

I'm glad you raised the B&B issue, Logic. Chief Dixon did call RG "a bed-and-breakfast person" (at least as opposed to a "cabin person"). So I had meant to look up B&B's in the area, too, but was pressed for time and didn't get to it when I posted about motels.

In terms of numbers, we can add 39 B&B's within a 35 mile radius and more than 60 within a 45 mile radius. Add those to the motel numbers, and we've got a much clearer picture of how big a task checking out lodging in the surrounding area would be.

But IF Gricar was in Lewisburg and IF he (and perhaps some MW) spent Friday night holed up somewhere before a return to Lewisburg on Saturday, I wonder if a B&B would be the place of choice, despite Dixon's description of RG as a "bed-and-breakfast person."

We've never stayed at a bed and breakfast, but friends of ours have. Their experience was one that required a lot more interaction with their hosts than a typical motel stay. Perhaps not the best choice for someone looking to remain anonymous? Just wondering how easy it would be to keep a B&B visit on the down low.

I'd think it would be easiest to remain anonymous in a mid-size to larger chain franchise motel--the kind where a guy named Brad is working the front desk for minimum wage and is more interested in his conversation with the other night help (Cindy, who is cracking her gum and flirting with Brad) than in paying attention to whoever is checking in.

[Politigal]

I have a difficult time soaking in the bed & breakfast idea...or a hotel...or even a *tent* for that matter.

I just don't believe Gricar ever made the call, was on 192 or was in Lewisburg.

I can't see Gricar voluntarily leaving Lara....period.

[Cloudbuster]

I don't believe RG would leave Lara either. Strangly though we haven't heard anything from Lara in some time now have we? :confused:

[J. J. in Phila]

Rebersburg is well outside of that ten mile radius, but the B & B's usually come up on my mapping program. There still are not a lot close to where the Mini was found. Even ten miles is pushing it in regard to walking distance.

If another vehicle was involved, he could have stayed well outside of Lewisburg.

[2-B]

I have a difficult time soaking in the bed & breakfast idea...or a hotel...or even a *tent* for that matter.

I just don't believe Gricar ever made the call, was on 192 or was in Lewisburg.

I can't see Gricar voluntarily leaving Lara....period.

I don't think Gricar would ever leave Lara voluntarily, either. The reports about their extraordinarily close bond come consistently from too many corners. I believe the only circumstances under which Ray would have left Lara voluntarily would have been some situation where he sought to protect her by leaving (not high on my list of possibilities).

But I think Buehner's idea of checking motels wasn't predicated on the idea of Gricar taking off so much as on the idea of Gricar possibly checking in (for an afternoon or a night) with the supposed LMW and meeting with foul play under that scenario.

IMO, checking into a motel for the night doesn't make much sense if RG was as brilliant as he's been described, unless he wanted to be discovered by PF. Seems like those with a lot less brain power than RG usually manage to come up with some kind of a cover story if they want to sneak away from the spouse or the SO for a night in a motel with a lover.

Seems to me unless RG was ready for a hypothetical affair to be exposed to PF, Buehner's idea of a motel rendezvous would at most have been an "afternoon" situation with foul play somehow playing out. Not quite sure what he envisions happening--the LMW being the actor, a set up by the LMW, or a jealous party intervening at the scene.

[Politigal]

Forgive me but I have to ask since three of you have now said RG would never voluntarily leave Lara------
I must be dense here but what does RG going to a bed and breakfast or a motel or a hotel on a Thursday evening or a Friday afternoon have to do with voluntarily leaving Lara? Sorry, but I'm lost here trying to follow along. I don't think that BB was looking at a voluntary departure as a reason to check out hotel/motels.

I would guess they are great places to cool off if something was bothersome or heating up, if anything 'else' was going on, but being at a B&B, or a hotel, or a motel doesn't typically equal a disappearance. If it did, I would guess there would be a whole lot more missing persons than the one we are looking for.

So could someone explain to me what a stay in one of those places has to do with voluntarily leaving Lara? Sorry---but I am clueless here. I was thinking more along the lines that he would have had every intention of returning, and something happened that prevented it.
JMO

could you sort of give us a hypothetical for a Friday visit to a B&B or hotel and what might have ensued?

[2-B]

Forgive me but I have to ask since three of you have now said RG would never voluntarily leave Lara------
I must be dense here but what does RG going to a bed and breakfast or a motel or a hotel on a Thursday evening or a Friday afternoon have to do with voluntarily leaving Lara? Sorry, but I'm lost here trying to follow along. I don't think that BB was looking at a voluntary departure as a reason to check out hotel/motels.

I would guess they are great places to cool off if something was bothersome or heating up, if anything 'else' was going on, but being at a B&B, or a hotel, or a motel doesn't typically equal a disappearance. If it did, I would guess there would be a whole lot more missing persons than the one we are looking for.

So could someone explain to me what a stay in one of those places has to do with voluntarily leaving Lara? Sorry---but I am clueless here. I was thinking more along the lines that he would have had every intention of returning, and something happened that prevented it.
JMO


I think BB's reason for looking at motels and B&B's may have been as I explained in a post above.

But there's been other speculation that Gricar was in Lewisburg Friday, spent the night somewhere Friday night, was back in Lewisburg Saturday, and then took off in the now infamous YITMAMPW on Saturday.

[J. J. in Phila]

I don't think Gricar would ever leave Lara voluntarily, either. The reports about their extraordinarily close bond come consistently from too many corners. I believe the only circumstances under which Ray would have left Lara voluntarily would have been some situation where he sought to protect her by leaving (not high on my list of possibilities).



The are several possibilities:

1. He planned to leave and then contact her over that weekend; he didn't expect Lara to fly in on Saturday.

2. He planned to wait until the heat was off and she was polygraphed, then he'd contact her.

3. 20/20 Vision was being used as a message, either to LG or BG.


But I think Buehner's idea of checking motels wasn't predicated on the idea of Gricar taking off so much as on the idea of Gricar possibly checking in (for an afternoon or a night) with the supposed LMW and meeting with foul play under that scenario.


Note Buehner also called for a grand jury, after both PEF and LG were polygraphed. It's a lot easier to commit perjury, or not tell LE something, that it is to beat a polygraph.


IMO, checking into a motel for the night doesn't make much sense if RG was as brilliant as he's been described, unless he wanted to be discovered by PF. Seems like those with a lot less brain power than RG usually manage to come up with some kind of a cover story if they want to sneak away from the spouse or the SO for a night in a motel with a lover.


Not really. Here are a couple examples:

A. "Honey, I thought I had a bit too much to drink and decided to get a room. I would have called, but I fell asleep."

B. "Honey, I wasn't feel too well and decided to get a room. I fell asleep." (Something like that has actually happened to me, twice.)

C. "Oh, honey, I just needed some time for myself. You know how much I like driving. I just got a room (or "I was in Cleveland.")."


Seems to me unless RG was ready for a hypothetical affair to be exposed to PF, Buehner's idea of a motel rendezvous would at most have been an "afternoon" situation with foul play somehow playing out. Not quite sure what he envisions happening--the LMW being the actor, a set up by the LMW, or a jealous party intervening at the scene.

Either/or. To be honest, this one is the most likely murder scenario.

Getting there "early" could be explained as a desire to kill two birds with one stone, and find a spot to toss the drive. RFG looking at ways to destroy the drive and even evidence that points to him tossing it, if that should be discovered, would not preclude murder.

[2-B]

The are several possibilities:

1. He planned to leave and then contact her over that weekend; he didn't expect Lara to fly in on Saturday.

2. He planned to wait until the heat was off and she was polygraphed, then he'd contact her.

3. 20/20 Vision was being used as a message, either to LG or BG.

Not one of those suggestions is a possibility in scenario Pgal and I were discussing, JJ.

We said we did not believe Gricar would leave Lara voluntarily--as in disappear without explanation and without contact for the next 4+ years.

That's the scenario that's been posed in the YITMAMPW. We're saying we don't believe that happened.

And some folks very close to RG have grave reservations about whether Ray would have disappeared from Lara's life without an explanation and without a backward glance, so we are not alone in our position.


Not really. Here are a couple examples:

A. "Honey, I thought I had a bit too much to drink and decided to get a room. I would have called, but I fell asleep."

B. "Honey, I wasn't feel too well and decided to get a room. I fell asleep." (Something like that has actually happened to me, twice.)

C. "Oh, honey, I just needed some time for myself. You know how much I like driving. I just got a room (or "I was in Cleveland.")."

Again, I think you've misunderstood. I said that people far less brain power than RG usually manage to come up with some kind of a cover story if they want to sneak away from the spouse or the SO for a night in a motel with a lover--as a way of staving off suspicion/discovery by the spouse or SO.

Each of your "examples" is a cover story delivered after the fact, after an unexplained night of absence.

By then, what damage has been done?

We know that in PF's case, by 5 p.m., she was concerned. By mid-evening, she was calling his cell phone dozens of time and calling her brother for counsel. By 11:30 p.m., she was calling the police to report him missing. A BOLO went out that night, at which point RG was fair game to be found if he had been involved in some hypothetical tryst.

Many members here have said they would have been calling friends and family members to ask if a missing spouse/SO had been seen, had they been as concerned as PF. Some have said they would have gone out searching for a missing spouse/SO had they been similarly worried.

The spouse/SO at home is likely alternating between worry and suspicion, the degrees of each determined by the relative health of the relationship and the amount of trust in the relationship.

If someone comes home after a night of unexplained absence offering lame excuses about being too drunk or not feeling well or "just needing some time away," the suspicion level goes up.

If RG had straggled home on Saturday offering one of those explanations, you can bet PF's radar would have been going off.

If RG wanted a night in a motel in some hypothetical tryst scenario, then he would have been asking for trouble by not providing an excuse before the fact. Far less brilliant folks are smart enough to know this.

We have no "before the fact" excuse offered to PF in this case. I tend to think that's a good indication RG did not have a romantic overnight tryst planned for that Friday, unless of course he was hoping for discovery and some kind of dramatic, emotional break up, and that doesn't sound like RG's style. No indication he was a relationship drama junkie.

To be honest, this one is the most likely murder scenario.



In your opinion, at any rate.

[J. J. in Phila]

Not one of those suggestions is a possibility in scenario Pgal and I were discussing, JJ.

We said we did not believe Gricar would leave Lara voluntarily--as in disappear without explanation and without contact for the next 4+ years.

That's the scenario that's been posed in the YITMAMPW. We're saying we don't believe that happened.

And some folks very close to RG have grave reservations about whether Ray would have disappeared from Lara's life without an explanation and without a backward glance, so we are not alone in our position.



Considering all that we know is that RFG did not contact LG as of September 2005, that possibility remains open. It is one that we cannot rule out, unless LE decides to redo the polygraphs.

Likewise, RFG might have intended to contact her earlier, Monday, but couldn't because she was now surrounded by police. He may not have anticipated evens unrolling so quickly.

A third possibility would be that he didn't want to put LG in the position of lying to LE. Let LG be question, be polygraphed, then contact her.


Again, I think you've misunderstood. I said that people far less brain power than RG usually manage to come up with some kind of a cover story if they want to sneak away from the spouse or the SO for a night in a motel with a lover--as a way of staving off suspicion/discovery by the spouse or SO.

Each of your "examples" is a cover story delivered after the fact, after an unexplained night of absence.

By then, what damage has been done?

We know that in PF's case, by 5 p.m., she was concerned. By mid-evening, she was calling his cell phone dozens of time and calling her brother for counsel. By 11:30 p.m., she was calling the police to report him missing. A BOLO went out that night, at which point RG was fair game to be found if he had been involved in some hypothetical tryst.

Many members here have said they would have been calling friends and family members to ask if a missing spouse/SO had been seen, had they been as concerned as PF. Some have said they would have gone out searching for a missing spouse/SO had they been similarly worried.

The spouse/SO at home is likely alternating between worry and suspicion, the degrees of each determined by the relative health of the relationship and the amount of trust in the relationship.

If someone comes home after a night of unexplained absence offering lame excuses about being too drunk or not feeling well or "just needing some time away," the suspicion level goes up.

If RG had straggled home on Saturday offering one of those explanations, you can bet PF's radar would have been going off.

If RG wanted a night in a motel in some hypothetical tryst scenario, then he would have been asking for trouble by not providing an excuse before the fact. Far less brilliant folks are smart enough to know this.

We have no "before the fact" excuse offered to PF in this case. I tend to think that's a good indication RG did not have a romantic overnight tryst planned for that Friday, unless of course he was hoping for discovery and some kind of dramatic, emotional break up, and that doesn't sound like RG's style. No indication he was a relationship drama junkie.



In your opinion, at any rate.

Well, it really doesn't make any difference if PEF's "radar" goes off. Unless she goes to Lewisburg, for some of those things and starts showing a photo, there isn't anything that she can discover.

It's a bit like the Cleveland trip; RFG could show up Sunday and say, "I just needed to get away for a bit and I went to Cleveland." Sloane, or one of the staff just say, "Oh, he did that before." End of story.

[Politigal]

Since the last point of contact that we are aware of is when he called from within a mile or two of a B&B in Rebersburg that has a check out time of 10:30 am, it is possible someone had agreed to meet him in that area shortly after checking out.

It could have been anyone from an expert witness, to an informant, to a family member with confidential information, to a victim of abuse, to visiting someone at a rehab. If we add taking the laptop along into the equation, I would guess work related, as opposed to a friend in for a seminar, a break-away, a reunion, or number of other possible personal reasons. I don't think this was 'personal' to RG. I do think it highly likely that RG's involvement was taken 'personal' by someone else.

Since none of the locals or anyone local to where the car was found have stepped up to say they met with him that day, next move is to see who visited in a pay situation near the point of last contact area that day that might somehow connect back to RG. Maybe the mate of an abusive spouse who didn't want to be seen in the courthouse, who had left someone and took a room overnight.

Unless we know who the guests were in that area for a possible overnight stay, we don't know that he didn't agree to meet someone down the road, and was taken by surprise by an enraged spouse, with the other half threatened with the same if he/she talked.

While someone might stay at a relative's home, first check out the get away places where it's a pay-to-stay situation. It cannot be eliminated if it wasn't checked. If it was checked and found to be a dead end road, it can be eliminated. Then to move on down to Lewisburg area to do the same. Unless LE checks on possibilities, they can't be eliminated, unless there is evidence elsewhere, and we have yet to hear about it.

The most likely place 30 miles away toward Centre County near route 192 is the B&B I mentioned, so good place to start. If nothing is found there, then to expand out to other B&B's and hotel/motels. Then the visitor's list at White Deer Run and Lewisburg Penitentiary to see if there is anyone visiting that day that would somehow connect back to RG.

None of this would have anything to do with voluntarily leaving Lara. I do not see anything that points toward voluntary walkaway in this case and never have.
JMO

thx Logic....I just wasn't grasping what scenario you were thinking of...

so you think RG may have met someone else who was staying at a B&B or hotel....

[2-B]

Considering all that we know is that RFG did not contact LG as of September 2005, that possibility remains open. It is one that we cannot rule out, unless LE decides to redo the polygraphs.

Likewise, RFG might have intended to contact her earlier, Monday, but couldn't because she was now surrounded by police. He may not have anticipated evens unrolling so quickly.

A third possibility would be that he didn't want to put LG in the position of lying to LE. Let LG be question, be polygraphed, then contact her.

You're still misunderstanding, JJ. Pgal, I, and others (here and close to RG) do not believe RG voluntarily dropped out of Lara's life and started a new life somewhere with no intention to contact her.

Your ideas have nothing to do with what we're talking about. Nothing.

Well, it really doesn't make any difference if PEF's "radar" goes off. Unless she goes to Lewisburg, for some of those things and starts showing a photo, there isn't anything that she can discover.

It's a bit like the Cleveland trip; RFG could show up Sunday and say, "I just needed to get away for a bit and I went to Cleveland." Sloane, or one of the staff just say, "Oh, he did that before." End of story.

I don't think you have a very good grasp of male/female relationship dynamics. That would hardly be the "end of the story."

[J. J. in Phila]

2-B, I can very easily believe that RFG intended to contact LG during week of 4/18/05 and couldn't because she was in Bellefonte. I can very easily believe that RFG might have been willing to wait for a few months prior to contacting her, so as not to but her in the position of having to lie to LE or fail a polygraph. I can very easily believe that RFG used 20/20 Vision as a signal.

Did he do any of those things? I don't know.

[2-B]

2-B, I can very easily believe that RFG intended to contact LG during week of 4/18/05 and couldn't because she was in Bellefonte. I can very easily believe that RFG might have been willing to wait for a few months prior to contacting her, so as not to but her in the position of having to lie to LE or fail a polygraph. I can very easily believe that RFG used 20/20 Vision as a signal.

Did he do any of those things? I don't know.

If Gricar intended to contact Lara at any time, whether by phone or through some signal or message, then he wasn't intending to LEAVE her. Not the way Pgal and I were talking about. :rolleyes:

But I'll accept that you're unable to grasp that.

(BTW, I would assume Lara had her cell phone when she left Washington and came to Bellefonte. So although your premises are totally irrelevant to the scenario Pgal and I were discussing, I'll address that one enough to say I know of no twenty-something that goes anywhere without her cell phone. I would assume RG had that number. And of course, if he intended to call her, cell phone or otherwise, it's not intending to leave her!)

[J. J. in Phila]

If Gricar intended to contact Lara at any time, whether by phone or through some signal or message, then he wasn't intending to LEAVE her. Not the way Pgal and I were talking about. :rolleyes:

But I'll accept that you're unable to grasp that.

(BTW, I would assume Lara had her cell phone when she left Washington and came to Bellefonte. So although your premises are totally irrelevant to the scenario Pgal and I were discussing, I'll address that one enough to say I know of no twenty-something that goes anywhere without her cell phone. I would assume RG had that number. And of course, if he intended to call her, cell phone or otherwise, it's not intending to leave her!)

First, you can't use cell phones on a plane. Second, do you really expect RFG to call her while she's standing next to DZ? That would be a chance I'd take. Third, do you really think RFG would want to put his daughter in the position of having to lie to the police?

Really 2-B, use your head. It's one thing to call someone when you have a good idea that she is alone; it's another to call them when she might be in room full of people, including the police. He'd have no way of knowing who was around.

[Politigal]

First, you can't use cell phones on a plane. Second, do you really expect RFG to call her while she's standing next to DZ? That would be a chance I'd take. Third, do you really think RFG would want to put his daughter in the position of having to lie to the police?

Really 2-B, use your head. It's one thing to call someone when you have a good idea that she is alone; it's another to call them when she might be in room full of people, including the police. He'd have no way of knowing who was around.

Let me get this straight....

So you think RG left voluntarily & contacted Lara sometime after....but never contacted his "soulmate" Patty?

[2-B]

First, you can't use cell phones on a plane. Second, do you really expect RFG to call her while she's standing next to DZ? That would be a chance I'd take. Third, do you really think RFG would want to put his daughter in the position of having to lie to the police?

Really 2-B, use your head. It's one thing to call someone when you have a good idea that she is alone; it's another to call them when she might be in room full of people, including the police. He'd have no way of knowing who was around.

I don't "expect" RG to call Lara AT ALL, because I'm saying I don't believe he would just drop out of her life voluntarily, as in NO CONTACT.

NO CONTACT means no phone calls, no messages sent through science fiction books, no smoke signals, no telepathic images . . . NO CONTACT.

Do you believe that RG would have voluntarily left Lara's life intending never to contact her again?

[2-B]

Let me get this straight....

So you think RG left voluntarily & contacted Lara sometime after....but never contacted his "soulmate" Patty?

It sounds as if JJ believes the most likely murder scenario has RG involved romantically with some woman and winding up dead.

(I could be wrong. JJ changes his tune about things pretty often, so it's hard to be sure.)

Guess RG wouldn't call Patty if he was shacked up with some hypothetical honey.

Not that I believe any of that is remotely what happened to Gricar.

[2-B]

I would guess LE waited months before giving LG the lie detector test, thinking that RG, if walkaway, would definitely contact her within a reasonable amount of time.

After their definition of a reasonable amount of time passed, and LG passed the LD test, I would guess at that point in time LE then had to arrive at a conclusion of whether it was believed RG was likely dead or alive.

As close as he was to his daughter, I would guess that if she hadn't heard from him within a few days, he was likely unable to do so for some reason. Since no one has reported anyone showing up with amnesia, fugue, or health related situation that proved to be RG, I think that moves walkaway basically off the front burner and pushes it all the way to the back.

It should be pulled up ONLY if RG shows up somewhere alive, which hasn't happened in the past four years, two months, thirteen days, one hour and 38 minutes since what is said to have been his last contact was made with someone who knew him -----the phone call. IMO, foul play is on the front burner, and suicide without a body is on the back burner next to walkaway, and that is how it should be investigated. There have been no answers found, and IMO, the energy spend trying to disprove foul play simply pushes it further to the front.
JMO

That's it in a nutshell, Logic.

[SuperKyle]

With all of this talk that Ray would never leave his daughter I had to throw in my thoughts.

They lived an entire "COUNTRY" apart isn't that right? Am I right that she lived in California? Or somewhere distant anyway... A whole country apart does not give me that greatest thought of an extremely close bond.

I for one, will never move more than an hour away from my parents and family. Just me but I'm DARNED close to my family. I know close doesn't mean proximity but it says something. Things "can" get lost in that distance.

Further, look, and seriously look, at Jon R. Van ****. He has been found, and he DID walk away from everything even his retirement for an entirely new life.

My friends on these boards. No body, no evidence whatsoever of a struggle, which there would have been. No nothing... except for this.

Just as the police officer from Ohio left a ribbon inside the typewriter behind that ultimately gave away his plans, here we have Ray's searches giving away what he was doing.

Ray pulled off an amazing act... and that is it. Why else has this board almost died completely since the release of Ray's online searches.

He is gone, enjoying a new life.

Good day

[2-B]

With all of this talk that Ray would never leave his daughter I had to throw in my thoughts.

They lived an entire "COUNTRY" apart isn't that right? Am I right that she lived in California? Or somewhere distant anyway... A whole country apart does not give me that greatest thought of an extremely close bond.

I for one, will never move more than an hour away from my parents and family. Just me but I'm DARNED close to my family. I know close doesn't mean proximity but it says something. Things "can" get lost in that distance.

Further, look, and seriously look, at Jon R. Van ****. He has been found, and he DID walk away from everything even his retirement for an entirely new life.

My friends on these boards. No body, no evidence whatsoever of a struggle, which there would have been. No nothing... except for this.

Just as the police officer from Ohio left a ribbon inside the typewriter behind that ultimately gave away his plans, here we have Ray's searches giving away what he was doing.

Ray pulled off an amazing act... and that is it. Why else has this board almost died completely since the release of Ray's online searches.

He is gone, enjoying a new life.

Good day

Guess the media slant on the computer searches worked on your view of this mystery, Kyle. Just wondering if you followed the way in which TG was taken out of context regarding what those online searches might have meant, or even the way in which the headlines slanted what LE actually said about what they might mean.

I'm sincerely curious. Because a more superficial look at the media reports might easily lead one to the conclusion you've reached. Digging a little deeper might make one question a lot of things, including a forensic linguistic analysis of those search terms allegedly used by RG and an analysis of whether it is possible to demonstrate that RG himself did those online searches.

Regarding the Lara issue, IMHO, geographic distance or proximity has nothing to do with emotional bond. The facts of the RG/LG relationship have been clearly spelled out by those close to them: nothing was more precious to RG than his daughter. They spoke by phone several times a week (she lives in Washington state, not California). His staff was advised they'd face swift penalty if they did not put calls from Lara through to him immediately. She called him her "rock." He would visit with her for weeks at a time, and they would hike together and spend time watching movies together. He looked forward to his retirement and traveling to visit Lara more often.

I don't care if she lived in Australia or Bellefonte. That's a close bond between father and daughter. And when you have that kind of close, loving bond, the father does not deliberately choose to let his daughter twist in the wind, wondering if he's been murdered or if he committed suicide or if he abandoned her for some new life without a backward glance.

JMO.

[SuperKyle]

Ah yes. All great points. And yes I have looked further into the usage of those searches. There are just a lot of things that don't add up unless it was meant to be secretive.

1. I doubt that Ray was in charge of his PC if something went wrong, as in he dropped water on it. Maybe financially but someone would have noticed that and someone would say "oh yeah, he spilled water on it and tried to find a way to clean it up." It just doesn't seem to fit a search where there was an accident.

2. When he was retired, they may have needed his data on those pc's in his office. They may have held important files for the case. He would have known that and that it wouldn't have been his job to clear them out anyway. And his own laptop or home pc. If he was trying to clear those off (not secretly) it seems he would have called his more tech oriented nephew or other family for a quick question.

Just seems like all of this was on the down low.

And I was saying the same thing, I know distance doesn't truly matter, its the care inside for people. But maybe he wasn't quite feeling the same back??? Maybe he was feeling down about the distance. After all. Here he is tied down in a relationship and she is still working. So he can't just pick up and go whenever really...

I do agree though, we do not really know for sure about past Thursday at 9:00 or whatever. It just seems that the people at the antique place knew him and who he was. Seems they would remember him. Which brings me to another thought, and this is just pure insensitive speculation that really doesn't matter, but was he possibly homosexual?

Just a thought... (seriously, just a different avenue) antique toys and things like that. I'm just not sure that he wasn't. This may have been his chance to live the life he wanted with no pressure.

[2-B]

Why else has this board almost died completely since the release of Ray's online searches.


My opinion: I don't think that's necessarily an accurate characterization. This is a four year, two plus month old disappearance, and we still have active posting every single day in this forum. The number of active readers far exceeds the number of posters. People are still very much engaged in this case.

Compare to Nicholas Francisco, who went missing nearly three years after RG. That forum hasn't had a discussion post in nearly two months.

We're still all searching for clues to RG's disappearance. No one here is about to give up. And there's a very active group of posters here who will not let RG's disappearance be called a "walkaway" without sufficient proof that he did so.

That means a live Ray Gricar having a face-to-face meeting with law enforcement, telling LE he does not want to be bothered, he's alive and well, and everyone should just go away.

[SuperKyle]

My opinion: I don't think that's necessarily an accurate characterization. This is a four year, two plus month old disappearance, and we still have active posting every single day in this forum. The number of active readers far exceeds the number of posters. People are still very much engaged in this case.

Compare to Nicholas Francisco, who went missing nearly three years after RG. That forum hasn't had a discussion post in nearly two months.

We're still all searching for clues to RG's disappearance. No one here is about to give up. And there's a very active group of posters here who will not let RG's disappearance be called a "walkaway" without sufficient proof that he did so.

That means a live Ray Gricar having a face-to-face meeting with law enforcement, telling LE he does not want to be bothered, he's alive and well, and everyone should just go away.

Very good thoughts as well. See though, I just see this pattern kind of the same way. Nick's forum pretty much died off when it came out that he led a very "active and energetic" secret lifestyle. Pretty much summed up what people thought as well, that he took off.

Maybe he did maybe he didn't, but when that information came out, that is when the discussion died. And when I say died off, I mean that I used to come here and find all kinds of posting from people and new threads and things. It just doesn't seem as active. I could be wrong.

Still, there is the chance he is out there simple unfound and awaiting burial. If so I hope for evidence soon. This new lead about this druggy criminal is looking somewhat promising. Though I'm doubtful.

All the same all the best to those who are still searching. All I'm saying is that it was said that Jon would never leave his daughters either, and he left everything. It happens. We're guys, we're weird. :confused:

[kelloggirl]

SuperKyle, I don't disagree with your POV that walkaway is possible. People act out of character seemingly out of the blue. People say one thing and do another. Humans make mistakes, and bad decisions. To think Ray is absolutely incapable of walking away when I personally don't know him at all is a bit shortsighted, IMO. That said, I'm not sure I believe it. Also, I'm not sure that non-active posters staying away means belief in walkaway. I know personally, for me, it doesn't. Although I still read almost every day or every other day, I myself don't post anymore for many reasons, primarily because without new information/new leads, I don't feel that I have anything valuable to add to the discussion compared to locals. I also have moved on to other missing person cases. And quite frankly, I have no interest in participating in the debate team atmosphere that seems prevalent in these threads where every sentence is often refuted point by point, instead of an in open discussion where theories and speculation are welcome.

[J. J. in Phila]

Let me get this straight....

So you think RG left voluntarily & contacted Lara sometime after....but never contacted his "soulmate" Patty?

First of all, I never said that RFG contacted LG, only that he could.

Second, obviously if RFG walked away, he walked out on PEF. Considering where she is working, and that he, hypothetically, walked out on her, I would doubt that he would contact her. It would be calling Smith or Madeira.

I doubt that, if there was contact, either was contacted prior to the polygraph.

[J. J. in Phila]

It sounds as if JJ believes the most likely murder scenario has RG involved romantically with some woman and winding up dead.

(I could be wrong. JJ changes his tune about things pretty often, so it's hard to be sure.)

Guess RG wouldn't call Patty if he was shacked up with some hypothetical honey.

Not that I believe any of that is remotely what happened to Gricar.

That is the most likely murder scenario, except that he wouldn't call PEF if he were dead.

And I wouldn't call it "media slant" in regard to the searches. We've known that perhaps more than a year prior to his disappearance, RFG wanted to destroy the data on the drive, because he asked others how to do it.

I think RFG tossed the drive. We have motive, he wanted to destroy the data. Opportunity, he was in Lewisburg long enough. Means, he and the Mini were seen within about 100 yards of where the drive was discovered.

That could explain why he got to Lewisburg so early. The question is, what happened later? Did he ride off into the sunset, or sunrise, in this case? Was he murdered or did he then die?

[J. J. in Phila]

With all of this talk that Ray would never leave his daughter I had to throw in my thoughts.

They lived an entire "COUNTRY" apart isn't that right? Am I right that she lived in California? Or somewhere distant anyway... A whole country apart does not give me that greatest thought of an extremely close bond.

I for one, will never move more than an hour away from my parents and family. Just me but I'm DARNED close to my family. I know close doesn't mean proximity but it says something. Things "can" get lost in that distance.

Further, look, and seriously look, at Jon R. Van ****. He has been found, and he DID walk away from everything even his retirement for an entirely new life.

My friends on these boards. No body, no evidence whatsoever of a struggle, which there would have been. No nothing... except for this.

Just as the police officer from Ohio left a ribbon inside the typewriter behind that ultimately gave away his plans, here we have Ray's searches giving away what he was doing.

Ray pulled off an amazing act... and that is it. Why else has this board almost died completely since the release of Ray's online searches.

He is gone, enjoying a new life.

Good day

I think you point is quite valid. I would not some other things.

1. RFG and BG divorced when LG was 11 or 12. He wasn't in the household with her from that time.

2. LG didn't go to college in the area, so there was a lot of distance for a while.

It certainly wasn't like they were living together.

[2-B]

And I wouldn't call it "media slant" in regard to the searches. We've known that perhaps more than a year prior to his disappearance, RFG wanted to destroy the data on the drive, because he asked others how to do it.


I referred to two very specific instances of media slant when the 4 year anniversary pieces announced the computer searches.

One: information from Tony that was quoted/taken out of context and slanted to sound as if TG regarded the computer searches as proof that murder and suicide were no longer viable theories. TG himself was here on the board and explained what he actually told the reporter vs. what was printed.

Two: the CDT headline that proclaimed the computer searches weakened the foul play theory. That headline was in complete contrast to a quote from MR in the article that accompanied the headline.

Both are obviously slant, and both are the kinds of things that affect casual followers of this case. His nephew doesn't think suicide or murder are likely now that he's learned of these computer searches? Mmmm. The guy must have walked. The headline says foul play theory is weakened. Mmmm. I don't have time to read the article. . .

[J. J. in Phila]

It certainly did weaken some of the foul play theories, because it indicated that RFG intended to dispose of the drive. It actually might have strengthened the "other woman" theory, because it explains why RFG got to Lewisburg so early, i.e. he wanted to get rid of the drive and this was a good time to do it, so he got to Lewisburg earlier.

As of now, that is the strongest murder theory. The rest, including the "luring" fall apart under the weight of evidence. And yes, that was original murder scenario.

That is one of the reasons I want LE to look at that "inner circle" and a grand jury called. I seriously doubt that RFG would have gotten into a car with a strange woman.

[2-B]

TG's clarification:

Correct, and to add a bit of clarity, "To me,” Tony Gricar said, “it looks like it absolutely knocks out the theory of foul play.” is printed a bit out of context. I was giving my view of how this new "revelation" can/will be perceived as it relates to the general public, not necessarily how I personally view this release. Obviously, if the searches were by Ray, it lessens/destroys the foul play angle, but that doesn't mean I necessarily buy what is being sold.

http://209.73.26.184/showthread.php?p=13008632#post13008632

MR's statement:

“This information is very important to the investigation,” Rickard said. “It, in and of itself, focuses on the possibility of walkaway or suicide. However, it certainly does not eliminate the possibility of homicide.”

[bolding mine]

http://www.centredaily.com/news/ray_gricar/story/1228995.html#ixzz0JyqRf3sw&C

[SuperKyle]

A lot of this is now what I have been trying to say. And the fact that Ray's nephew is saying that foul play has been greatly weekened and so has suicide, that is all true. Suicide is pretty much completely thrown out for me anyway. This is pretty much somebody pulled off "the perfect crime" or Ray pulled off the perfect "Judge Crater"

Does anyone want to start thinking of where he may have went?

[J. J. in Phila]

A lot of this is now what I have been trying to say. And the fact that Ray's nephew is saying that foul play has been greatly weekened and so has suicide, that is all true. Suicide is pretty much completely thrown out for me anyway. This is pretty much somebody pulled off "the perfect crime" or Ray pulled off the perfect "Judge Crater"

Does anyone want to start thinking of where he may have went?

Washington or British Columbia, New England, Slovenia are all possibilities, if he left. Cleveland is of course a possibility as well.

Right now, the if is more important than the where.

[2-B]

A lot of this is now what I have been trying to say. And the fact that Ray's nephew is saying that foul play has been greatly weekened and so has suicide, that is all true. Suicide is pretty much completely thrown out for me anyway. This is pretty much somebody pulled off "the perfect crime" or Ray pulled off the perfect "Judge Crater"

Does anyone want to start thinking of where he may have went?

But SuperKyle, Ray's nephew didn't really say he believes foul play has been greatly weakened. Again, TG was giving his view of how the release of the computer searches will be viewed by the general public.

Your question about thinking where Ray may have gone shows that TG is right, IMO. The general public sees the release of the computer searches as "proof" that RG walked away.

[sherrijean981]

That's it in a nutshell, Logic.


I read the article on the CDT about the missing Dawn Miller case, that they are digging and searching the Jacksonville Quarry area for her. Maybe in their search they will come across RG in that area too, maybe others. There have been a lot of missing people in the Centre County area. It is off I-80.

[2-B]

I read the article on the CDT about the missing Dawn Miller case, that they are digging and searching the Jacksonville Quarry area for her. Maybe in their search they will come across RG in that area too, maybe others. There have been a lot of missing people in the Centre County area. It is off I-80.

Agreed, SJ. And finding a body in any of these cases would at least bring some sense of "closure," whatever that might mean, to the families of the missing. I always hear loved ones of missing people say the "not knowing" is worse than the "knowing."

[sherrijean981]

Finding any evidence may lead to what happened.

Today's news reports a rusty, sawed off and shortened gun, serial number obliterated, stock altered to look like a pistol, having been found, hidden under a rock in the stream near the 800 block of a neighborhood in Boalsburg area.

KE's from TLee's group lived at 795 same street at the time of arrest, so it's basically at her old address. The news states the gun was found in the water by an 8 year old.

The description of the gun fits the same description of the one that O Diaz was shown to carry, same type pictured in the AG's report on drug bust report, O Diaz from Cherry Run/Loganton area.

All of these connections should be followed up on------and whether it can be determined how long the gun was in the water.
JMO


I saw the article and photo of the gun too. Thank God it was old and rusty and the child knew enough to give it to an adult.

I knew one of those from the drug bust lived in that area but didn't look to see which one. Thank you for posting it. Made me mad it was put in an area where children play.

Wonder if it was used in a crime before it was put under that rock?

[sherrijean981]

My thoughts are on the missing keys, wallet, etc. We know the computer and hard drive were thrown in the river. We know the other items are missing (or with RG). John Edwards, who was working with Carla Baron, said 3 items were thrown in the river. He thought the keys. Of course many do not believe in this stuff so you don't have to go there if you don't want to.

There are metal detectors that can be used in water. Was one ever taken there.

On the subject of miracles, the other day on the news a couple went out in the ocean as part of their vacation. While swimming 30 miles out in the ocean, she lost her diamond wedding ring. They searched for a couple days and did not find it. A couple weeks later a family member went on vacation to the same spot, searched the ocean floor the first day and nothing. Went back again and they found the diamond ring, with a metal detector. On the ocean floor, 30 miles out. Unbelievable but true.

The Susquehanna River is not that deep where everyone thinks RG was, why has no one searched the river with a metal detector to see if those keys are there? If found it would let us know what keys were on the ring (car, house, safety deposit box, etc) Would he then have thrown them away or someone else?

[TP7240]

Hello 4 the past couple of months i'v been reading about mr r gricar and also attorney j luna who both dispeared without a trace it's hard to believe noone knows anything . I have and idea they say is laptop was found but couldn't uncover any info what about the drug case he was working on or involed in (thomas unguard jr, dustin k kreitz ) of the wiliams, port pa drug task force both were indicted for being corurpt police an did mr rg work with these to on the same case or were these to different cases im not for sure i just wanted to know.

[TP7240]

Hello 4 the past couple of months i'v been reading about mr r gricar and also attorney j luna who both dispeared without a trace it's hard to believe noone knows anything . I have and idea they say is laptop was found but couldn't uncover any info what about the drug case he was working on or involed in (thomas unguard jr, dustin k kreitz ) of the wiliams, port pa drug task force both were indicted for being corurpt police an did mr rg work with these to on the same case or were these to different cases im not for sure i just wanted to know

[Politigal]

here's an article on Unguard/Kreitz

http://www.statecollegelaw.com/drug-case-lawyer-queries-u-s-role/#more-620

but as I stated in the other thread....I don't know of any link to Ray Gricar in that case.

[J. J. in Phila]

The same case, no. Both prosecuted drug cases, but not ones in common. Luna prosecuted federal cases in Baltimore and the surrounding area. RFG only prosecuted cases in Centre County. The Baltimore Sun had a series of good articles on the Luna case (online). You might check there.

The case Luna was prosecuting when he died (12/2003) was actually at the plea bargain stage. Both defendants were in jail at the time (and I think remain there presently).

The one major drug case being prosecuted, Taj Lee, when RFG disappeared was being prosecuted by the State AG's office; RFG had no role in that. Current DA Madeira was with the AG's office and was the prosecutor.

Neither would be involved in Williamsport, which is yet another jurisdiction.

You are literally talking about four jurisdictions over two different states and two different court systems (PA and federal).

[J. J. in Phila]

The "task force" seems to be limited to Centre County departments.

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2000/09/09-14-00tdc/09-14-00dnews-5.asp

[Cloudbuster]

What if Kreitz fiancee went to RG because she knew she couldn't go to anyone where Kreitz worked? It could have trickled unto RG's lap that way. What if RG was going to take that up to the AG's position being they was already investagating in his area on drugs?

What if they found out she was talking to RG? They had to know he was keeping the info on his laptop possibly. What needed to be disposed of so NO RECORDS would see the light of day? IMO no witness no laptop.

Or did anyone in the herion bust rule over on the others? Did they provide RG with info that lead him unto Kre and UNG? Could a meeting then be set up with RG and them 2 with Ray thinking he could straigten this all out and not knowing how serious it may have been? Then I could see the meeting going down in Lewisburg both partys would not be seen talking.

[Cloudbuster]

JJ speaking from experience I can tell you that one task force does speak to another task force when things are intertwined in 2 areas. I know this I've seen it first hand. The areas may be intertwined when need be--depending on who is all involved. Your link is interesting though!!!