Cold Cases

[Politigal]

I've read in numerous cases, the more time that passes, the less likely that case will be solved...and it appears that way with Gricar's case as well.

An interesting article involving 3 cold cases:

http://post-journal.com/page/content.detail/id/502741.html?nav=5018

He said cases go cold for a number of reasons, usually because of a lack of witnesses to the crime, uncooperative witnesses or a lack of physical evidence. One of the prime cold case scenarios is the disappearance of a lone victim, when no one witnessed the disappearance and the body is either never found or not found until some time later.

You'll note from the article one of the main problems that police depts experience in investigating is generally the lack of manpower and/or resources to devote to investigations.

And the next best step should be this:

‘‘The idea is to have fresh sets of eyes and minds go through the case files, re-examine evidence and begin from scratch on some of these cases. There have been significant successes across country with these types of teams"...

Let's hope that the next DA of Centre County will actually *begin from scratch* and re-examine RG's case with a fine-toothed comb.

[Politigal]

I wanted to add...

Michael Madeira would not turn RG's case over to the state, claiming he had the necessary resources, etc...

but later, of course, it was reported that he said the county needed another detective and that it might have aided in solving the case.

Just another of the many contradictions in this *cold case.*

[Serendipitous1]

The sad story of James Rapp, Butler County, PA. He had stolen from his daughter, confessed and sent a will to his lawyer... then disappeared nearly 5 years ago. LE initially thought he had committed suicide. But when there was no body found...

James Rapp's body was found by accident last month, in woods near a highway offramp...close to his home...been there for years...the cause and manner of death undetermined.

http://www.pennsylvaniamissing.com/rappjames.html
http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/butler/19262319/detail.html

[Politigal]

The sad story of James Rapp, Butler County, PA. He had stolen from his daughter, confessed and sent a will to his lawyer... then disappeared nearly 5 years ago. LE initially thought he had committed suicide. But when there was no body found...

James Rapp's body was found by accident last month, in woods near a highway offramp...close to his home...been there for years...the cause and manner of death undetermined.

http://www.pennsylvaniamissing.com/rappjames.html
http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/butler/19262319/detail.html


Chronic headaches, multiple thefts, forgery, guilt....and apparent reasons he chose to commit suicide.

No reasons have surfaced in RG's case.

[nittany90]

Chronic headaches, multiple thefts, forgery, guilt....and apparent reasons he chose to commit suicide.

No reasons have surfaced in RG's case.

ITA. And no one is ever going to convince me that, with Gricar having stood beside his family after Roy's suicide, having picked up the pieces and shared in the pain and devastation it caused, that he would choose to put his loved ones through that all over again. Add to that picture, his strength of character, his professionalism, LE finding no "apparent reason" he might have wanted to kill himself, add the reports that he was "looking foward to retirement and all it offered", and finally, throw in the fact that no body has been found.

IMO, suicide is off the table.
That leaves two.

[Serendipitous1]

No reasons have surfaced in RG's case yet...for any of the theories. But if suicide is an irrational act, is it logical to rule it out simply by listing all of the rational reasons that argue against it? A key point of Rapp's apparent suicide is that his remains were not hidden and yet went undiscovered for years.

[J. J. in Phila]

ITA. And no one is ever going to convince me that, with Gricar having stood beside his family after Roy's suicide, having picked up the pieces and shared in the pain and devastation it caused, that he would choose to put his loved ones through that all over again.


I think the Hemingway family would disagree with your logic on that point. It's possible RFG was depressed and it was undiagnosed.


Add to that picture, his strength of character, his professionalism, LE finding no "apparent reason" he might have wanted to kill himself, add the reports that he was "looking foward to retirement and all it offered", and finally, throw in the fact that no body has been found.

IMO, suicide is off the table.
That leaves two.

The lack of a body is one of the things that greatly lowers the odds on it. I can't completely dismiss it, but I give it a 9% chance. That is not a big chance.

[nittany90]

No reasons have surfaced in RG's case yet...for any of the theories. But if suicide is an irrational act, is it logical to rule it out simply by listing all of the rational reasons that argue against it? A key point of Rapp's apparent suicide is that his remains were not hidden and yet went undiscovered for years.

I see your point, S1. First, we can argue whether or not suicide is always an "irrational act". I doubt that we'll come to a conclusion, since the experts can't even agree. Although I am a collateral victim of suicide, I am in no way an "expert", so I'll opt out of that argument.

However, it is illogical for me to swallow the suicide scenario in this case, because 4 years after the fact, despite numerous contacts with family, friends, collegues, despite multi-LE groups actively searching for a "warning sign" LE has not been able to even hint at Gricar's possible motives for suicide. The closest we come is he may have been "more tired" than usual, working "harder" than usual.

I would argue, that based upon the 17 warning signs listed on the suicide.org website, there has been no proof publicly offered, that Gricar suffered from any of classic warning signs.

http://www.suicide.org/suicide-warning-signs.html

Okay, playing Devil's Advocate, let's say that Gricar fell into the 25% that commit suicide while exhibiting none of the classic warning signs. Faced with the possibility/reality that a loved one committed suicide, those left behind search their souls for something, anything they may have missed -- and usually, they find it.

Often times, memories, after the fact, offer more clarity. After reviewing the decedent's last behaviors/conversations in their minds for days, weeks, months afterward, they're often able to find something (some behavior, some conversation) that pointed to contemplation of suicide.

So far, I haven't read anything that comes close to they found "it".

Based upon the publicly-released evidence in this case, I can find plausibility in either walkway or foul play. Suicide just doesn't hold water for me. :thumbdown: (no pun intended)

JMO.

[2-B]

I think the Hemingway family would disagree with your logic on that point.

Alcoholism played a huge role in the Hemingway family suicides. Alcoholism is a strong precursor to suicide. No one has ever suggested that Ray Gricar was an alcoholic that I am aware of, nor has anyone suggested that his brother's problems were related to alcohol.

In Ernest Hemingway's case specifically, he had suffered brain damage and was delusional by the time he shot himself. Granddaughter Margaux was not only an alcoholic, but also a drug abuser. Both were alienated from close ties to family and friends, another factor in suicides not present with Ray Gricar, who had close ties with his daughter, with PF, with a few close friends, and with his nephews.

Alienation, alcohol, and drugs would make it far easier not to consider the ramifications on anyone else if someone contemplates suicide, so I think it's an oversimplification to say that Hemingway family members didn't consider the effects on family members, therefore Gricar wouldn't. His situation was entirely different.

[nittany90]

Alcoholism played a huge role in the Hemingway family suicides. Alcoholism is a strong precursor to suicide. No one has ever suggested that Ray Gricar was an alcoholic that I am aware of, nor has anyone suggested that his brother's problems were related to alcohol.

In Ernest Hemingway's case specifically, he had suffered brain damage and was delusional by the time he shot himself. Granddaughter Margaux was not only an alcoholic, but also a drug abuser. Both were alienated from close ties to family and friends, another factor in suicides not present with Ray Gricar, who had close ties with his daughter, with PF, with a few close friends, and with his nephews.

Alienation, alcohol, and drugs would make it far easier not to consider the ramifications on anyone else if someone contemplates suicide, so I think it's an oversimplification to say that Hemingway family members didn't consider the effects on family members, therefore Gricar wouldn't. His situation was entirely different.

LOL - 2-B. You just saved me a lot of research of disputing why the Hemingway family dynamics, complete with links, should not be compared to Gricar's situation.
Now, I can just say, "Yeah, what 2-B said!"

[day2day]

ITA. And no one is ever going to convince me that, with Gricar having stood beside his family after Roy's suicide, having picked up the pieces and shared in the pain and devastation it caused, that he would choose to put his loved ones through that all over again. Add to that picture, his strength of character, his professionalism, LE finding no "apparent reason" he might have wanted to kill himself, add the reports that he was "looking foward to retirement and all it offered", and finally, throw in the fact that no body has been found.

IMO, suicide is off the table.
That leaves two.

I have always thought that a few "key people" in this case -wanted the public to believe that Mr. Gricar met the same fate as his brother Roy. Right down to the car parked close to that river.

It is also my opinion that not only did Mr. Gricar love Lara with all of his heart-he also loved his nephews. I really don't think that Mr. Gricar chose to end his own life.

[Serendipitous1]

From the beginning, LE has seemed to want to keep suicide on the table...whether or not there is unpublished information to support it. In this forum, J. J. gives it a 9% chance...probably highest among active posters...although there are days when I 'hear' the old scratchy vinyls (33-1/3) in my mind.

I did my "suicide scenario" a while back, admittedly without any qualifications in that regard except for my own personal experiences. The Rapp case being solved was a reminder that, despite diligent search, bodies can remain undiscovered for a long time even when not hidden...and that we do not know all of what LE knows.

[2-B]

LOL - 2-B. You just saved me a lot of research of disputing why the Hemingway family dynamics, complete with links, should not be compared to Gricar's situation.
Now, I can just say, "Yeah, what 2-B said!"

Happy to oblige. JJ has raised the Hemingway comparison before, and it has never sat well with me given the Hemingway family history. There's a whole lot more both of us could add, I'm sure, but I think the point is pretty clear. No comparison.

[nittany90]

The Rapp case being solved was a reminder that, despite diligent search, bodies can remain undiscovered for a long time even when not hidden...and that we do not know all of what LE knows.

On that, I agree with you 100%, S1.

[Politigal]

From the beginning, LE has seemed to want to keep suicide on the table...whether or not there is unpublished information to support it. In this forum, J. J. gives it a 9% chance...probably highest among active posters...although there are days when I 'hear' the old scratchy vinyls (33-1/3) in my mind.

I did my "suicide scenario" a while back, admittedly without any qualifications in that regard except for my own personal experiences. The Rapp case being solved was a reminder that, despite diligent search, bodies can remain undiscovered for a long time even when not hidden...and that we do not know all of what LE knows.


I don't think law enforcement knows what all they know...lol

considering the prints, etc.