Thursday, 1/8/09

[Politigal]

First, I read the article about Madeira treating the staff to an Xmas party where he claimed he was following Gricar's tradition....I wish he would follow Gricar's tenacity in solving cases.........................nuf said.

On witnesses who think they may have seen Gricar that weekend & after --

It still puzzles me why we don't have any witnesses who saw Gricar leaving his home, or driving thru Bellefonte that morning. Also, it would be interesting to know how much gas the Mini Cooper had when found.

As is widely reported in lots of missing persons cases, after reading news of the missing or seeing it reported on TV, lots of witnesses come forward trying to help...but it's also widely reported that most witness sightings are usually debunked. People resemble other people...And the power of suggestion is at play.

Since Gricar's car was found at Lewisburg, that's where people claim to have seen him.

Lori Hacking was reported as a missing jogger....a witness claims they saw her at a park, standing by her car "stretching." (But she was already dead.)

Laci Peterson was seen walking the dog. (But she was already dead.)

Caylee Anthony was seen at hundreds of places. (But she was already dead.)

And in Gricar's case, there is no evidence to corroborate any of the witness sightings - no surveillance pics, no credit card or other receipts, no fingerprints, no cell phone calls, no friends who came forward claiming to have been with him, no scent found by search dogs at any of the locations he was said to have been at...nothing.

[J. J. in Phila]

P'gal, thatis no great mystery. People don't remember routine things and his street is not exactly a hotbed of activity.

Remember, no one reported RFG leaving from the park and going to the Courthouse on the day before, even though witnesses put him in the park and there is a video of him entering the Courthouse. He had to cross the most active part of Bellefonte to get from the park to the Courthouse and no one remembers seeing him.

[rozey]

First, I read the article about Madeira treating the staff to an Xmas party where he claimed he was following Gricar's tradition....I wish he would follow Gricar's tenacity in solving cases.........................nuf said.

snipped


Hmm...solving cases??? How does the unsolved murder of Dana Bailey,March 1987, fit into that?

[UndertheRadar]

Does anyone remember Bellefonte residents being interviewed as to whether they saw RG leaving Talleyrand and going to the courthouse? I certainly don't. As far as I can see, that was never a question, since VW placed him in the park about 5:30 pm and the video tape showed him entering the courthouse about 6 pm.

Pgal, you can add to your list the 350 reported sightings of Brooke Wilberger in the first five months after her disappearance. Her body hasn't been recovered to the best of my knowledge, but her murderer has been arrested.

We all know that DNA and other advances in forensic technology have helped to expose how frequently eyewitness testimony is incorrect in identification of criminal suspects, which is precisely why so much effort is being devoted to researching the issue.

Much of that research has identified LE handling of the witnesses as an area that could be modified to help cut down on misidentifications:

In studying eyewitness evidence, Professor [Gary] Wells [ the nation's leading witness misidentification scholar] uses an analogy that assisted the Task Force in its analysis and recommendations. Professor Wells likens eyewitness evidence to physical trace evidence. Physical trace evidence, such as fingerprints, fibers or blood, can help determine the facts of a crime and the identity of the perpetrator. The observations of an eyewitness are items of trace evidence contained in the witness' memory. Like physical evidence, memory trace evidence can be contaminated, lost, destroyed or otherwise made to produce inaccurate results. Like physical trace evidence, the manner in which memory trace evidence is collected can have important consequences for the accuracy of the results.



http://www.mass.gov/da/suffolk/docs/120904.html

Missing persons cases seem to have a far greater rate of inaccuracy than do criminal cases when it comes to eyewitness identification of the missing; the list of cases where we've got "wrong" ID's would be far longer than any list of cases where we've got correct ID's of missing people.

Common sense would probably tell us that's because LE are faced with a much greater challenge in "handling" witnesses in missing persons' cases. In criminal cases, at least the witnesses have seen something occur and someone on the scene. In a missing persons' case, LE has to show a photograph or give a description to the witness, at which point the whole issue of after-acquired information becomes a problem. Bennett's blue vest OR blue jacket may well be an example of that issue.

The LMW may also be a result of challenges faced by LE in what Wells calls "the manner in which memory trace evidence is collected." Given that a "wild weekend" was the initial reaction to opening the Mini, is it possible that the idea of RG being in a woman's company was unintentionally introduced when witnesses were questioned? When major problems with eyewitness handling are discovered in big city police forces like Boston's, when Wells and others argue that LE need intensive education about witness memory and intensive training to handle eyewitness interviews, one might easily question how prepared Wells might have deemed DZ and others to question the witnesses in Lewisburg.

JMO.

[Politigal]

snipped


Hmm...solving cases??? How does the unsolved murder of Dana Bailey,March 1987, fit into that?

It's obvious, some cases aren't solved. I wrote that I wished Madeira had Gricar's *tenacity* to do so.

[Politigal]

Does anyone remember Bellefonte residents being interviewed as to whether they saw RG leaving Talleyrand and going to the courthouse? I certainly don't. As far as I can see, that was never a question, since VW placed him in the park about 5:30 pm and the video tape showed him entering the courthouse about 6 pm.

Pgal, you can add to your list the 350 reported sightings of Brooke Wilberger in the first five months after her disappearance. Her body hasn't been recovered to the best of my knowledge, but her murderer has been arrested.

We all know that DNA and other advances in forensic technology have helped to expose how frequently eyewitness testimony is incorrect in identification of criminal suspects, which is precisely why so much effort is being devoted to researching the issue.

Much of that research has identified LE handling of the witnesses as an area that could be modified to help cut down on misidentifications:



http://www.mass.gov/da/suffolk/docs/120904.html

Missing persons cases seem to have a far greater rate of inaccuracy than do criminal cases when it comes to eyewitness identification of the missing; the list of cases where we've got "wrong" ID's would be far longer than any list of cases where we've got correct ID's of missing people.

Common sense would probably tell us that's because LE are faced with a much greater challenge in "handling" witnesses in missing persons' cases. In criminal cases, at least the witnesses have seen something occur and someone on the scene. In a missing persons' case, LE has to show a photograph or give a description to the witness, at which point the whole issue of after-acquired information becomes a problem. Bennett's blue vest OR blue jacket may well be an example of that issue.

The LMW may also be a result of challenges faced by LE in what Wells calls "the manner in which memory trace evidence is collected." Given that a "wild weekend" was the initial reaction to opening the Mini, is it possible that the idea of RG being in a woman's company was unintentionally introduced when witnesses were questioned? When major problems with eyewitness handling are discovered in big city police forces like Boston's, when Wells and others argue that LE need intensive education about witness memory and intensive training to handle eyewitness interviews, one might easily question how prepared Wells might have deemed DZ and others to question the witnesses in Lewisburg.

JMO.

To my knowledge, there weren't any reports about witnesses seeing Gricar prior to his disappearance, other than Conklin, Wedler, etc.

[rozey]

It's obvious, some cases aren't solved. I wrote that I wished Madeira had Gricar's *tenacity* to do so.

:smile:My post was a bit snarky!!!

[UndertheRadar]

To my knowledge, there weren't any reports about witnesses seeing Gricar prior to his disappearance, other than Conklin, Wedler, etc.

Me either, and I don't remember anyone being asked. Wedler came forward voluntarily, not because she saw RG but because of the demeanor issues when she did see him.

[Politigal]

Me either, and I don't remember anyone being asked. Wedler came forward voluntarily, not because she saw RG but because of the demeanor issues when she did see him.

IIRC, even Zaccagni stated that they hadn't tried to look at the last people to speak with or see Gricar because he didn't think it would be helpful. I'll find that link & post after work.

[Cloudbuster]

snipped


Hmm...solving cases??? How does the unsolved murder of Dana Bailey,March 1987, fit into that?

Maderia wasn't in office in 1987 so I don't think it has anything to do with him. Who was the orginal person who did Dana Baily's case?

[Cloudbuster]

Rozey wasn't it Det Ralston?

[Cloudbuster]

Rozey this investagation was going on in 2005 and Ralston was in charge.

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2006/01/01-13-06tdc/01-13-06dnews-02.asp

Also it was Tom Jordan who orginally was in charge of Dana Bailys case and it later became R Ralston.

[J. J. in Phila]

IIRC, even Zaccagni stated that they hadn't tried to look at the last people to speak with or see Gricar because he didn't think it would be helpful. I'll find that link & post after work.

The PSP profiler is the one that interviewed Sloane.

[UndertheRadar]

(Couldn't wait for you to get off work . . . this is my 'favorite' version, quoted from "Whispers & Roars".)


Thanks GS and Pgal. And logically, since RG was confirmed alive (by videotape) at 9 pm that Thursday, I highly doubt LE questioned anyone about the Thursday afternoon time frame.

[rozey]

Rozey this investagation was going on in 2005 and Ralston was in charge.

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2006/01/01-13-06tdc/01-13-06dnews-02.asp

Also it was Tom Jordan who orginally was in charge of Dana Bailys case and it later became R Ralston.

Gricar was the DA in '87 when the murder occurred. Yes, Jordan than Ralston were/are the LE detectives in charge of the investigation.
Your point is?

[rozey]

Gricar may not have been the det. in charge of the Bailey murder but he interjected himself in the case and yet did nothing to facilitate a successful conclusion.
I admit my feelings of dislike for Gricar are fueled by the way this case was handled by LE and the DA's office. Dana Bailey was from my hometown so I am a bit prejudice.

[J. J. in Phila]

Gricar may not have been the det. in charge of the Bailey murder but he interjected himself in the case and yet did nothing to facilitate a successful conclusion.
I admit my feelings of dislike for Gricar are fueled by the way this case was handled by LE and the DA's office. Dana Bailey was from my hometown so I am a bit prejudice.


I realize that RFG was not perfect. There were several high profile unsolved cased while he was DA. I would argue the Song case was an absolute disaster, and that DZ was 100 times better than that.

[J. J. in Phila]

No it doesn't "boggle the mind." On the first day, the staff was contacted. Instead of sitting down and doing interviews, LE was looking for RFG, seeing if he left some clue to where he was. That is a perfectly logical and expected first step. Even most of the staff wasn't too concerned until RFG didn't show up on Monday.

There should have been interviews, absolutely, but only after that first week. There should be interviews now.

[Politigal]

Ditto-----thanks GS and Pgal.

A Thursday time frame would be good to know. We know of a prison board meeting in the morning, a phone call with LG, a witness saying RG was in Huntingdon area, the loud closing of a door, then the park and on to the office, later leaves the office and ???? There is nothing that conclusively proves RG was not working that day. I would be curious to know how often RG worked outside of the office.

It simply boggles my mind to think every one in the office wasn't immediately interviewed. DZ's thinking it wasn't important and 'if the chief' deemed it important truly speaks for the mentality of the lead. How very foolish the statement 'every stone has be overturned' then becomes.

If the employees were not each interviewed, why imagine the neighbors were? If they were waiting to see if any neighbor might call in with a 'tip', in a small town where everyone knows everyone, it is far more likely the 'don't want to get involved' attitude would kick in and there would be no call in with an important tip if the tipster was unsure exactly who was going to know they had called.

In this situation, that would obviously be very questionable. Even it the person asked for anonymity, could the lead, by reputation, be trusted not to turn info over to some 'interested' party? Was there even one call-in reporting a sighting in Bellefonte that morning? Not that I've heard of. Either it's because no one saw him there, an impossibility if he was there, IMO, or because 'mums' the word------

JMO

I was re-reading lots of old articles tonight and from this link, one line in particular really stood out to me on why people weren't immediately interviewed about Gricar's disappearance.

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/12756052/

Zaccagni: When he wasn’t back to court Monday morning, we knew he had plans for court. We were concerned then something had happened.

IMO, this means Zaccagni & crew sort of sat on their hands til Gricar didn't show up that following Monday.

[gstickley]

I was re-reading lots of old articles tonight and from this link, one line in particular really stood out to me on why people weren't immediately interviewed about Gricar's disappearance.

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/12756052/

Zaccagni: When he wasn’t back to court Monday morning, we knew he had plans for court. We were concerned then something had happened.

IMO, this means Zaccagni & crew sort of sat on their hands til Gricar didn't show up that following Monday.

RG didn't work on Fri., probably Sat. & Sun. were normal non-working days. Is it not conceivable that RG had merely had taken the entire weekend off for himself, maybe even had gone to a ballgame? The following is extremely strange:

Significant changes occurred at the office fairly quickly following Ray’s disappearance in terms of previously-established policies and guidelines for case dispositions, as well as what was or was not appropriate for ARD disposition. All of these were absolutely within the legitimate discretion of Mr. Smith as acting DA and there is no issue of legitimacy or impropriety implied. They were simply troubling to me for reasons which I suppose are at least loosely analogous to why I found it troubling that staff counseling had already been decided upon by 9 AM on the first day that Ray would have been expected to return to the office after the weekend. In both instances, the actions seem to reflect a mindset that Ray was not going to be returning, which was wholly unsupported by the ongoing mantra of 'three theories, all equally likely' being offered by police. Nor was it in my view consistent with the public entreaties by his daughter and his paramour in their initial press conference imploring him directly to return, incorporating an obvious belief that he was in a position to do so if he wished.

(The quote was taken from KA's Magnificant Manuscript.)

I find it extremely strange that staff counseling was decided upon by 9:00 AM on Mon., the day he very well may have returned to work from a simple weekend away. If LE wasn't concerned, why was counseling even considered at that time??

[Politigal]

RG didn't work on Fri., probably Sat. & Sun. were normal non-working days. Is it not conceivable that RG had merely had taken the entire weekend off for himself, maybe even had gone to a ballgame? The following is extremely strange:

Significant changes occurred at the office fairly quickly following Ray’s disappearance in terms of previously-established policies and guidelines for case dispositions, as well as what was or was not appropriate for ARD disposition. All of these were absolutely within the legitimate discretion of Mr. Smith as acting DA and there is no issue of legitimacy or impropriety implied. They were simply troubling to me for reasons which I suppose are at least loosely analogous to why I found it troubling that staff counseling had already been decided upon by 9 AM on the first day that Ray would have been expected to return to the office after the weekend. In both instances, the actions seem to reflect a mindset that Ray was not going to be returning, which was wholly unsupported by the ongoing mantra of 'three theories, all equally likely' being offered by police. Nor was it in my view consistent with the public entreaties by his daughter and his paramour in their initial press conference imploring him directly to return, incorporating an obvious belief that he was in a position to do so if he wished.

(The quote was taken from KA's Magnificant Manuscript.)

I find it extremely strange that staff counseling was decided upon by 9:00 AM on Mon., the day he very well may have returned to work from a simple weekend away. If LE wasn't concerned, why was counseling even considered at that time??

It's like Smith did a 180 there IMO -- he went from not answering his phone all weekend to planning for grief counseling in a matter of hours.

[Cloudbuster]

Gricar was the DA in '87 when the murder occurred. Yes, Jordan than Ralston were/are the LE detectives in charge of the investigation.
Your point is?

I was answering what you said. I thought you was getting at something. I can now see your point which is a dislike of the handling of Dana Bailey's case.

[gstickley]

It's like Smith did a 180 there IMO -- he went from not answering his phone all weekend to planning for grief counseling in a matter of hours.

I agree Pgal.

Does this make sense? "When he wasn’t back to court Monday morning, we knew he had plans for court. We were concerned then something had happened."

However, by Mon. morning, there had been a multi-state BOLO for RG/the vehicle, the car had been processed for evidence & moved from the place he "supposedly" had left it, his office computer had been accessed, an air search for the vehicle had been conducted . . .

Yet, neighbors, courthouse employees, best friends had not been interviewed, not even to see if they had seen him, if they had any information on where he might have gone, nothing.

And by Mon. morning, a grief counseling for the staff was being planned . . .

[Politigal]

I agree Pgal.

Does this make sense? "When he wasn’t back to court Monday morning, we knew he had plans for court. We were concerned then something had happened."

However, by Mon. morning, there had been a multi-state BOLO for RG/the vehicle, the car had been processed for evidence & moved from the place he "supposedly" had left it, his office computer had been accessed, an air search for the vehicle had been conducted . . .

Yet, neighbors, courthouse employees, best friends had not been interviewed, not even to see if they had seen him, if they had any information on where he might have gone, nothing.

And by Mon. morning, a grief counseling for the staff was being planned . . .


Wow....when you lay it out like that....it's truly stranger than fiction.

:unsure:

[J. J. in Phila]

I agree Pgal.

Does this make sense? "When he wasn’t back to court Monday morning, we knew he had plans for court. We were concerned then something had happened."

However, by Mon. morning, there had been a multi-state BOLO for RG/the vehicle, the car had been processed for evidence & moved from the place he "supposedly" had left it, his office computer had been accessed, an air search for the vehicle had been conducted . . .

Yet, neighbors, courthouse employees, best friends had not been interviewed, not even to see if they had seen him, if they had any information on where he might have gone, nothing.

And by Mon. morning, a grief counseling for the staff was being planned . . .

The grief conseling didn't occur 4/18. It was 4/22/05:

and as I recall, that gathering occurred on the afternoon of Friday, April 22, 2005. Mr. Smith advised staff individually of the date and time. I can recall his saying to me that the session would occur in one of the courtrooms, that the shades would be pulled down, the door to the courtroom locked and staff could then speak freely about their emotions about the situation. I told him it sounded like a séance.

http://gricar.disappearance.googlepages.com/gricardisappearance

The investigation was speeding on (with the wheels about to fall off) during those first several days.

[UndertheRadar]

Ditto-----thanks GS and Pgal.

A Thursday time frame would be good to know.

I agree with this observation. Just to clarify, my earlier statement that it would be logical for LE not to have questioned anyone about the Thursday afternoon time frame referred specifically to the narrow half-hour window between 5:30 and 6 pm when supposedly "no one remembers" seeing RG.

For all we know, half a dozen or more Bellefonte residents may remember seeing RG during that time frame, but I doubt anyone was questioned about it, since that half hour (leaving the park and walking to the office) is not particularly material. We know he was in the park; we know what his demeanor was there. We know he entered the office and when; we know he left the office and when.

That we've never heard a peep about RG being in Bellefonte Friday morning has always been a bit strange to me, but I think we can all bet our bottom dollars if a time frame had been announced for when RG supposed left the house, we'd have had six or more "witnesses" who supposedly saw him.

The same way we had witnesses in Lewisburg.

The same way more than seven witnesses "saw" Laci Peterson walking her Golden Retriever in a given neighborhood in a given time frame when it was first announced she was a missing person, and the same way there was a "sighting" of Lori Hacking when it was first announced she'd "gone missing" from a specific area while supposedly jogging during a given time frame.

[gstickley]

You always hear comments about LE "keeping it close to the vest", meaning information pertaining to a case they're working. I don't understand that mindset as it pertains to "suicide" or "walkaway", the 2 main theories. I don't understand all the "hindsight is 20-20" musings by LE about information they did have early in the investigation; information that might have jogged the memory of someone. I don't understand all the 'waiting for someone to contact them' if the public had info., such as the MW or anyone else who might have info. But . . . you don't know what LE does have: "keeping it close to the vest". Why???? It's been almost 4 yrs.!!!

[UndertheRadar]

All of the sightings in Lewisburg, confirmed or not, were put out in the news------not one local or even in Centre County, other than the one Cind put here on board, saying someone saw him in Centre Hall at 7:30-ish on Friday morning. IIRC, she said no one ever contacted that person. It appears the 'only story in town' for April 15, 2005 is based on Lewisburg area sightings only.
JMO

True, except for the CF sighting at 3 pm, immediately dismissed on the basis of the timeline of the Lewisburg witnesses. That has always been a bit, well, perplexing IMO.

[UndertheRadar]

I didn't realize until today that Ms. Fenton's sighting of was not made public until a year after RG's disappearance; it apparently wasn't made public by LE either, but by the press, as per this press release dated 05/13/06. Had this information been made public a year earlier, perhaps others might have their memory jogged too. :angry:


It was actually the release of this information in May 06 that brought me to this board in June 06. Fenton's sighting, at that time, had me seriously considering a walkaway theory.

Like suppressing the LMW sighting for a year, withholding the Fenton sighting from the public for a year didn't help IMHO.