Walkaway Scenario (Redux)

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm starting this thread to look at the possibility that RFG walked away and as a continuation of the original walkaway scenario thread. It looks at the possibility , note the word "possibility" that RFG walked away, what indicators there are that he did, what indicators there are that he didn't. I still give the murder/walkaway chances at 42.5%/42.5%, though that might change based on new evidence.

First up are the witnesses. If all the Lewisburg witnesses (there are at least 7) are totally correct, there is a 100% change that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16/05. If the Fenton/Grine sighting is correct RFG returned to Bellefonte on the afternoon of 4/15. If the Wilkes-Barre witnesses are correct, RFG was there on 4/18/05.

In terms of timing we don't seem to have a two witnesses that place RFG in a different location at the same time. Nobody that I know of has ever said, "I saw RFG in Lewisburg at 3:00 PM, so he couldn't have been in Bellefonte." That hypothetical witness would either wrong, in part at least, or Fenton would be wrong.

Most witnesses are NOT 100% accurate. However, the chances on them being right can increase.

1. If more than one person sees the same thing increase the chances on it being accurate.

You can figure that each witness has a 10 percent chance of being perfectly accurate and a 25 percent chance of being generally accurate. I'll give a 5% and 10%, respectively, chance for each additional witness.

2. If someone knows the person being seen decreases the chances of mistaken identity, so increases the chances of accuracy.

3. The amount of contact, especially conversation, increases the chances of accuracy. The person has to concentrate a bit more to talk to someone that to just pass them on a street.

There are other factors, a mental illness, impairment, a motive to give false testimony, that would lessen the chances of accuracy. These things obviously do not apply to these witnesses.

All of these witness have some aspect of 1, 2 and 3.

All the Lewisburg witnesses saw RFG after Noon on 4/15, though this is spread out over two days. That RFG was in Lewisburg at some after Noon 4/15 is high. Even mistaken identity has been explained to some extent by racial misidentification, which isn't present. These witnesses come under 1 collectively.

Both Fenton and Grine agree that they saw RFG in another car; both know him personally. Grine isn't sure ot the day but limits it to 4/14 or 4/15; Fenton is on video where she says she was on 4/15. Fenton alone comes in on number #2 and as to RFG driving another car Grine/Fenton get both #2 and #1. We know have a higher degree of credibility that RFG was driving another car.

Wilkes-Barre has a witness that spoke with RFG and another independent witness that he was there, so we have both #1 and #3.

Lewisburg witnesses:

Chances that RFG was in Lewisburg after Noon on 4/15, just based on witness accounts. 85% Chances that RFG was there on 4/16, just based on witness accounts. 20% (possibly 25%).

Fenton/Grine:

I'll start off with a base of 40% that any Fenton would be accurate. In the personally known section I'll add 20% for each additional "personally known" witness. (I really should add more to Grine for being an ex-police officer; they are trained to be observant.)

Grine cannot confirm the date, so the likelihood of the Fenton sighting on 4/15/05 is 40%. The likelihood of RFG driving a different car on 4/14 or 4/15 is 60%.

Wilkes-Barre Witnesses:

The witness who engaged in conversation was more focused, so I'll give this a 30% of being generally accurate. The second witness apparently wasn't in the conversation, so I'll treat her as being a category one second witness and give her a 10% chance.

Overall, a 40% chance. Relatively high, but not more than likely than not.

Two things come out from the witnesses:

1. It is likely that RFG was in Lewisburg after Noon on 4/15 (85% chance from witness reports, alone).

2. It is 60% likely that RFG was driving a different car on 4/14 or 4/15. (Interestingly there is at least one witness report of RFG getting into a car in Lewisburg, but that isn't factored in to this).

Okay, from the witnesses, RFG was likely in Lewisburg after noon on 4/15 and likely driving another car on 4/14 or 4/15. A 40% chance, just from the witnesses, that RFG was at the Courthouse at 3:00 PM on 4/15 and in Wilkes-Barre on 4/18.

[ladyheartfixer]

still have to agree with you on this matter JJ...the possibility remains...either walk away or for some reason placed into a protective program because maybe he did know the "secret" and he had to be sequestered for his own protection. In that case, the fact that neither LG or PF were placed in protection makes me think that he hadn't disclosed anything to them and therefore they would be safe.

see..I DO post off and on. Just not very often.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks
Using your 'rules of thumb', we can then safely conclude that RG never traveled through Bellefonte, past dozens of neighbor's houses, was not seen by any of the population who inhabit the town he lived in as he traveled through, nor by anyone enroute to or in Pleasant Gap, or in Centre Hall, or traveling down route 192. The thousands of inhabitants in Centre County who could have recognized their local DA saw NO one matching that description driving a red and white Mini prior to noon on 4/15/05.



Actually you can't. Here is a good example. RFG was in the park at 5:30 PM. At 6:17 PM he entered the Courthouse. No one saw him go between those two points, even though he obviously did. Likewise, no one saw the Mini until around 6:00 PM on 4/15. By your theory, it just appeared there, magically.


We have zero witnesses who reported such a sighting, so based on your 'numbers' that you call reliable, it was impossible for RG to have traveled in/through any of Centre County on 4/15 am.
JMO [/*]

We are looking at the accuracy of sighting, not how many people were not paying attention.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



So based on your conclusions, residents of Centre County, including close neighbors, do not pay any attention to someone they might know, while Union Countians pay very close attention to someone they don't know. Do you have a name for that particular 'rule of thumb'?
JMO [/*]

Interestingly, under your theory, RFG was teleported from Talleyrand Park to the Courthouse and the Mini was teleported from Bellefonte to Lewisburg. We know the time roughly RFG was in the park and when he arrived at the Courthouse. No one saw him; no one saw the Mini or him walking to the Courthouse.

I am saying that people are not generally observant, and that, unless it was something obvious, like a red car parked in a lot all by itself, most people won't remember it. Consider this, were there only 10-15 people in the area of the Street of Shops on 4/15-16? There could have been several hundred there during that time. How many reported seeing RFG? A small percentage.

How many people are paying attention to watching the cars on 192? My guess would be less than 100. How many of those could see the driver of a car? Maybe 20?

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by ladyheartfixer
still have to agree with you on this matter JJ...the possibility remains...either walk away or for some reason placed into a protective program because maybe he did know the "secret" and he had to be sequestered for his own protection. In that case, the fact that neither LG or PF were placed in protection makes me think that he hadn't disclosed anything to them and therefore they would be safe.

see..I DO post off and on. Just not very often. [/*]J.J. appears to be using some kind of "new" math. I could not follow it. Could you?

Good to see you posting. Any recent words of wisdom from the VA think tank?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



How do you know PF didn't drive RG to the Courthouse on Thursday, after the park, in her car and return to pick him up?
JMO [/*]

Oh, why didn't anybody see [that? Under your theory, the should.


Oh, I know, PEF called up Commander Riker and had the Starship Enterprise beam him into the parking lot.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
J.J. appears to be using some kind of "new" math. I could not follow it. Could you?

Good to see you posting. Any recent words of wisdom from the VA think tank? [/*]

A while back GS asked about witness credibility. I'm trying to quantify it.

This just deals with the witnesses.

[Cinderella]

Is it anything like 2 takes away 1 then 2 is left? :read:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
Is it anything like 2 takes away 1 then 2 is left? :read: [/*]

Only in the math of Court TV Conspiracy Theory.

Actually, my estimates are probably pretty low. I'm assuming, in general, a witness is completely wrong 75% of the time. I doubt it is that high (or we'd have a much high percentage of the population in prison).

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila

A while back GS asked about witness credibility. I'm trying to quantify it. This just deals with the witnesses. [/*]Well, wouldn't you have to interview the witnesses to make the quantification (if one is even possible) anything more than a WAG? I mean, if that is your guesstimate...fine. But I think you expended a lot of effort putting up something which no one can follow. Then again, I am not that smart.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Well, wouldn't you have to interview the witnesses to make the quantification (if one is even possible) anything more than a WAG? I mean, if that is your guesstimate...fine. But I think you expended a lot of effort putting up something which no one can follow. Then again, I am not that smart. [/*]

Some of it, but I'm trying to divide up the general from the specific and I'm making that this factor would not apply:

There are other factors, a mental illness, impairment, a motive to give false testimony, that would lessen the chances of accuracy. These things obviously do not apply to these witnesses.

We might get one or two with serious credibility problems, but not all. Certainly not Fenton and Grine or the Wilkes-Barrie witnesses who were independent.

And, I'm using very low estimates of general accuracy. If two witnesses, that never met RFG before say, **I walked past RFG on the same street,** I give it a 35% chance of really being a sighting of RFG, or a 65% chance of NOT being RFG.

If I were a prosecutor, I'd love to have two witnesses put the defendant in the same place at the same time, if that was crucial to my case.

[Cinderella]

I'm with you S1, there are degrees of intelligence. Mine doesn't include the top notch. I like a little more on the lower shelf. :rolleyes:

[Cinderella]

Here are some Lyrics for J. J. tonight.

Blowin' In The Wind - Bob Dylan


How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
Yes, 'n' how many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, 'n' how many times must the cannon balls fly
Before they're forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, 'n' how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, 'n' how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

How many years can a mountain exist
Before it's washed to the sea?
Yes, 'n' how many years can some people exist
Before they're allowed to be free?
Yes, 'n' how many times can a man turn his head,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

[day2day]

Great song, Cinderella!!

I just can't get over the fact that Mr. Gricar walked out of the Centre County Courthouse on 4/14/2005 and VANISHED into thin air! .. IMO we could be looking at an alien abduction..:confused:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by day2day
Great song, Cinderella!!

I just can't get over the fact that Mr. Gricar walked out of the Centre County Courthouse on 4/14/2005 and VANISHED into thin air! .. IMO we could be looking at an alien abduction..:confused: [/*]

Neither vanishing into thin air nor ET.

There are some thinks that LE should have looked at, but they haven't. I don't know why they haven't.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila

Neither vanishing into thin air nor ET. There are some thinks that LE should have looked at, but they haven't. I don't know why they haven't. [/*]You have talked with LE then? Did they tell you more of what they DID look at too? ...Or were you just being sarcastic again?

I remember billywahoo posted that the public was being made aware of approximately 5% of what LE is doing...and that was 6 weeks into the investigation (before the lead detective went into psychic mode). Obviously LE gets to pick and choose what information they give out to the press, and the press gets to pick and choose what of that gets published (and, unfortunately, how it is presented). Neither group is obliged to be candid or to correct inaccuracies.

LE coddles the psychic out of desperation, but refuses answers to the public's pertinent questions. And to fill out their "day", LE tries to identify a handful of message board posters, on a forum relatively few people read and which has yet to be recognized by the media. Why? Because those posters dare to break the information stranglehold and fill the void. Brilliant police work. Well done! MOO

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Neither vanishing into thin air nor ET.

There are some thinks that LE should have looked at, but they haven't. I don't know why they haven't. [/*]

Speaking of alien abductions and ET"s hmmm do we have anything like that from Lewisburg PA.
http://www.nuforc.org/CB020824.html JJ these LE didn't seem to look into this case much either lol.

Although this is not what happened to RG it's still apparent JJ why they didn't look into what your talking about.
It's a matter of what they already know or indirectly know about the king. All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't fix it or make it right again. Lack of Power comes to mind or lack of courage? :seeya:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
You have talked with LE then? Did they tell you more of what they DID look at too? ...Or were you just being sarcastic again?



Not to LE, but both TG and PB. I keep getting the same answer. I'm looking at how RFG could have gotten out of Lewisburg or could have been driving another car. Some possibilities have been looked at, and reported. These include public transportation and car rentals. What they have not looked at, publicly, is if RFG borrowed a car, bought one, had a friend pick him up.



LE coddles the psychic out of desperation, but refuses answers to the public's pertinent questions. And to fill out their "day", LE tries to identify a handful of message board posters, on a forum relatively few people read and which has yet to be recognized by the media. Why? Because those posters dare to break the information stranglehold and fill the void. Brilliant police work. Well done! MOO [/*]

If LE checked, and found nothing, why not just announce it, or at least see the press gets that information. They did with other methods of leaving Lewisburg.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


Speaking of alien abductions and ET"s hmmm do we have anything like that from Lewisburg PA.
http://www.nuforc.org/CB020824.html JJ these LE didn't seem to look into this case much either lol.

Although this is not what happened to RG it's still apparent JJ why they didn't look into what your talking about.
It's a matter of what they already know or indirectly know about the king. All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't fix it or make it right again. Lack of Power comes to mind or lack of courage? :seeya: [/*]

A little more on the incident you are referring to CB. This article mentions his being found in only underwear with a look of horror on his face. Wonder if the same thing was in the area in 2005? Odd isn't it?

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:BIKQPWy9MT0J:www.martiansgohome.com/smear/v49/ss021110.htm+todd+sees+2002&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=us

Quote:
"There's a really strange story going around regaxding a possible UFO-related death in Northumberland County. Pennsylvania, near Harrisburg. It seems that on August 2nd a hunter named Todd Sees took his four-wheeler up a mountain to look for pre-season deer. When he failed to return home, his wife & children became concerned, and a search party was organized including local police and even the FBI. Eventually his body was found wearing only underwear - with a look of horror on his face! Three nearby farmers said they had seen "a large real bright object" at the time of Todd's early morning disappearance. They said that a bright light eventually shined down from it and something was pulled into the light!
The UFO then went straight up and disappeared. Now there's a scary story, a bit too late for Halloween!... "
Quote

And another article:

http://www.ufocasebook.com/92802.html

Sightings and News

NORTHUMBERLAND (TODD SEES UPDATE!!) More details are coming out about the craft seen on Montour Ridge on August 6, 2002, at 5:30 AM in the morning by a farmer and three fishermen on the Susquehanna River. It was at the very top of the mountain on the western end, just hovering above the power lines. The farmer said, "He could see some sparks flying from the tower and dropping to the ground. The whole incident lasted about 10 minutes, then it got very bright and took off very low heading west, then it stopped and went straight up, it was gone in seconds. The horses on the farm were very upset and nervous for about 12 hours."

It was round and very still over the lines. Suddenly it moved what looked like a few hundred feet to the East, it stopped and a beam of blue and white light shined to the ground. He saw what appeared to be a man suspended in the light, he was being pulled up head first, he was moving his arms slowly in the light? What looked like a man was pulled up into the bottom of the craft. A few seconds later the craft started shuddering, then went west very fast, stopped briefly, and then flew straight up and out of sight. Two days later a young man was found dead not far away. The man had driven his vehicle up the mountain looking for deer signs at around 5:00 AM. His 4 wheeler was two miles from where his body was found in thick brush. The Blood hounds never got a scent past the 4 wheeler.

The Daily Item Newspaper report by Marcia Moore reports: Northumberland Investigators are still awaiting toxicology results to determine what killed a 39-year-old Northumberland County man found in the woods near his home last month. Point Township police began investigating the death of Todd Sees after his body was discovered Aug. 5 in a wooded area at the western base of Montour Ridge about 150 yards from his house. An autopsy failed to conclude a cause of death and toxicology tests were ordered. "Right now we're on hold until we get the test results," Point Township Police Chief Gary Steffen said Tuesday.

The blood tests are expected to take another four or five weeks, he said. "It's just a waiting game," Steffen said. "Something certainly caused his death. The answer has to be in the blood." Sees was reported missing on the afternoon of Aug. 4, hours after he left his home on an ATV to go scouting for deer on Montour Ridge. A family member found the ATV about two miles from his home, but there was no sign of Sees. About 200 volunteers, along with tracking dogs and searchers in helicopters, looked for the missing man for several hours.

About 30 hours after he went missing, Sees' relatives stumbled upon his body in a densely wooded area of the ridge about 150 yards from his house. Northumberland County Coroner James Kelley said the autopsy revealed Sees had been dead between 24 hours to 36 hours, but found no signs of trauma or of coronary disease. MUFON is investigating. Thanks to Peter Davenport NUFORC

----------------------------------------

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster



Although this is not what happened to RG it's still apparent JJ why they didn't look into what your talking about.
It's a matter of what they already know or indirectly know about the king. All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't fix it or make it right again. Lack of Power comes to mind or lack of courage? :seeya: [/*]

If, and that is a big IF, RFG walked away and he's not hiding in an attic in Lewisburg, then he had to leave Lewisburg somehow. How?

1. Public transportation, bus, taxi. LE did check these, without too much fanfare, but it was reported.

2. Rental car. With a bit more fanfare, LE did check that out.

3. Stolen car. None were stolen at the time. LE would naturally check that out.

4. Purchased car, either under a legal variation of his name, or using a false name. LE did not check.

5. "Borrowed" car. RFG borrowed a car from a friend, perhaps purchasing it for that friend, but having it registered in the friend's name. LE did not check.

6. Picked up by a friend. LE did not check whereabouts of friend, other than PEF.

In terms of 4-5, every time I've asked this question of people close to the case, the answer has been that LE has not checked. On 6, it has been noted that LE did not even interview some of the friends.

Either LE hasn't checked or are going to surprising lengths to hide the fact that they did.

[day2day]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


If, and that is a big IF, RFG walked away and he's not hiding in an attic in Lewisburg, then he had to leave Lewisburg somehow. How?

1. Public transportation, bus, taxi. LE did check these, without too much fanfare, but it was reported.

2. Rental car. With a bit more fanfare, LE did check that out.

3. Stolen car. None were stolen at the time. LE would naturally check that out.

4. Purchased car, either under a legal variation of his name, or using a false name. LE did not check.

5. "Borrowed" car. RFG borrowed a car from a friend, perhaps purchasing it for that friend, but having it registered in the friend's name. LE did not check.

6. Picked up by a friend. LE did not check whereabouts of friend, other than PEF.

In terms of 4-5, every time I've asked this question of people close to the case, the answer has been that LE has not checked. On 6, it has been noted that LE did not even interview some of the friends.

Either LE hasn't checked or are going to surprising lengths to hide the fact that they did. [/*]

IF he used public transportation ..SOMEONE saw him . IF he rented a car SOMEONE saw him. IF a friend PICKED HIM UP-they saw HIM.

Obviously..either someone is lying...or he VANISHED...

I can't get over the fact he walked out of that courthouse and vanished into thin air..it is not POSSIBLE!
jmo of course...

[day2day]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


Speaking of alien abductions and ET"s hmmm do we have anything like that from Lewisburg PA.
http://www.nuforc.org/CB020824.html JJ these LE didn't seem to look into this case much either lol.

Although this is not what happened to RG it's still apparent JJ why they didn't look into what your talking about.
It's a matter of what they already know or indirectly know about the king. All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't fix it or make it right again. Lack of Power comes to mind or lack of courage? :seeya: [/*]


IMO-lack of courage...*great post btw*:read:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by day2day


IF he used public transportation ..SOMEONE saw him . IF he rented a car SOMEONE saw him. IF a friend PICKED HIM UP-they saw HIM.


There would very likely be be witnesses to RFG to using public transportation and a credit card record if RFG rented a car.


Obviously..either someone is lying...or he VANISHED...



If there was a helper the problem is that LE may never have asked helper. It may not be a lie so much as not volunteering information.

[Cinderella]

Maybe Bigfoot drug him away. I'd believe that before I would believe a UFO got him. The only time that I have seen flashing bright lights was years and years ago when I had a little too much to drink.

[Cinderella]

I didn't get to read to far before rotflmao. This must be the reason that LE isn't saying too much about the case.

April 1970 Nr Bridgewater, MA Police officer In patrol car in dark, felt rear end of car picked up and saw 'bear' running away.

Well you never know, but it could be the answer.

Oh no that happened in 1970 in MA. All that I can come up with is that they must have seen "SNARKY". :santa:

[J. J. in Phila]

I know, PEF's accomplice was from Remulak. That explains how the car got to Lewisburg.

:santa:

Now, for the serious part.

If this was a walk away, it would obviously require some planning and money. It is possible that the planning had been ongoing for more than five years.

Has the been a long term look at RFG's finances by a forensic accountant?

[Cloudbuster]

I know we are being funny but back in the 70's our current camp had a actual UFO hoovering over it (I wasn't around at the time and my so was little. The occupants in the cabin said they couldn't move and after it left they could still see the lights up on the ridge. The next day they went up on the ridge and there was a large burned out circle on the ground where this craft appeared to have landed. In the paper back then it was reported to be seen by many in Clinton County. Later a book came out with mention of this day.

SJ thanks thought it was Todd and I keep mixing him up with the man that was pulled from the lackawanna river. LW that's a interesting link!
D2D thanks it does seem like a lack of courage.

JJ you seem to think RG could have gotton a car through normal means and Im asking that you at least keep in mind that he didn't need to have any evidence of such a thing. There is no records on the 43 cars remember? Okay we know where 8 of them went to Ungard's family and himself so that leaves 35 missing cars? Think about this why leave evidence when you can get a car (especially if he was working undercover) from a drug bust? All records gone and 35 cars are unaccounted for?? I do believe if RG was in another car then i would look at the 35 missing ones.

JMOO:seeya:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster

JJ you seem to think RG could have gotton a car through normal means and Im asking that you at least keep in mind that he didn't need to have any evidence of such a thing. There is no records on the 43 cars remember? Okay we know where 8 of them went to Ungard's family and himself so that leaves 35 missing cars? Think about this why leave evidence when you can get a car (especially if he was working undercover) from a drug bust? All records gone and 35 cars are unaccounted for?? I do believe if RG was in another car then i would look at the 35 missing ones.

JMOO:seeya: [/*]

Those cars were not in Lewisburg and there might be a record of them going out. Also, to drive it, you need a license plate.

[day2day]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
I know, PEF's accomplice was from Remulak. That explains how the car got to Lewisburg.

:santa:

Now, for the serious part.

If this was a walk away, it would obviously require some planning and money. It is possible that the planning had been ongoing for more than five years.

Has the been a long term look at RFG's finances by a forensic accountant? [/*]

That is just ANOTHER part of the problem , IMO! His finances!! Just another item on the long list of mistakes by LE -imo !

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by day2day


That is just ANOTHER part of the problem , IMO! His finances!! Just another item on the long list of mistakes by LE -imo ! [/*]

It's been reported that the FBI is monitoring his credit cards to see if there is current activity. It has not been reported (but it might have happened and was not reported) that LE ever looked at his accounts for the last decade (which could be expensive).

[day2day]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


It's been reported that the FBI is monitoring his credit cards to see if there is current activity. It has not been reported (but it might have happened and was not reported) that LE ever looked at his accounts for the last decade (which could be expensive). [/*]

How about his bank accounts? Are we sure anyone really knows how many accounts he has?
How bout life insurance? Does anyone know how many policies he held and who stands to benefit from his death?!

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by day2day


How about his bank accounts? Are we sure anyone really knows how many accounts he has?


Unless RFG used a different SSN, all domestic accounts would come up in the IRS data base.


How bout life insurance? Does anyone know how many policies he held and who stands to benefit from his death?!

Right now, nothing. RFG is not dead, legally. I'd guess he has some, but, unless a body is found, nobody could claim it until April 2012. Waiting seven years doesn't seem like a good option.

[Politigal]

even tho i believe that circumstantial evidence implicates pf, i'm also open to the possibility that rg left by choice.

[i'm typing this way because i'm hunting and pecking as i broke my elbow today.]

anyway, i do think it's possible that rg is alive, and i believe that it's possible that his family are aware. i also think it's possible that pf is not aware.

i have always wondered why lara doesn't post and i've wondered why tokuen quit posting. in addition, i've wondered why tg so strongly defends pf, considering the circumstances of the disappearance. and of course, i'm suspicious of the seeming inactivity of law enforcement, mm, etc. in investigating this case. i think tokuen may have quit posting when she learned the truth.

i think it's possible that something was going on at the da's office or between pf and rg, that rg couldn't live with, so he 'escaped' that something.

i don't think they anticipated the tenacity of posters here in trying to find out what happened.

jmho

waiting for sj's teeth to fall out with this post

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Unless RFG used a different SSN, all domestic accounts would come up in the IRS data base.



Right now, nothing. RFG is not dead, legally. I'd guess he has some, but, unless a body is found, nobody could claim it until April 2012. Waiting seven years doesn't seem like a good option. [/*]

Hold on a second it is my understanding that M$M said the family could declare RG dead remember? It was the family that didn't decide to do that. Does anyone still have the link?

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by day2day


How about his bank accounts? Are we sure anyone really knows how many accounts he has?
How bout life insurance? Does anyone know how many policies he held and who stands to benefit from his death?! [/*]

D2D good questions especially about the life insurance. I have heard about insurance twice now unconventially but now Im curious on what it means?

JJ the words I stole one are mentioned unconvential alot and you don't think one of those vechicles would even fit that? Never mind roflmao don't answer it. I think I already know what your going to say. As of for a plate? Thats easy you can just about steal one of those in non obvious places. I don't think he would even have to worry about one of those cause if his own mini was not seen ect Im sure one can get away unnoticed without a plate too.:santa:

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by Politigal
even tho i believe that circumstantial evidence implicates pf, i'm also open to the possibility that rg left by choice.

[i'm typing this way because i'm hunting and pecking as i broke my elbow today.]

anyway, i do think it's possible that rg is alive, and i believe that it's possible that his family are aware. i also think it's possible that pf is not aware.

i have always wondered why lara doesn't post and i've wondered why tokuen quit posting. in addition, i've wondered why tg so strongly defends pf, considering the circumstances of the disappearance. and of course, i'm suspicious of the seeming inactivity of law enforcement, mm, etc. in investigating this case. i think tokuen may have quit posting when she learned the truth.

i think it's possible that something was going on at the da's office or between pf and rg, that rg couldn't live with, so he 'escaped' that something.

i don't think they anticipated the tenacity of posters here in trying to find out what happened.

jmho

waiting for sj's teeth to fall out with this post [/*]

Pgal sorry about your elbow!!! I thought about everything your saying in your post except now my view has changed and unless they say more I can't change it. It's personal. One thing though if RG was really out there why would TG want to even try to do a primetime show? It's alot of preasure and anxiety especially if you knew RG was out there? I have my views on why LG isn't on here and I have a feeling at one time she might have been. I do think that PF and POSSIBLY LG think he is out there. Meaning I think they know way more than us. I still don't believe he is. :rose:

[Cinderella]

I am starting to believe that there is a curse on the posters on this board. My leg still hasn't healed up with all the antibiotics that I have taken. I am still taking them since September. :chicken: I would hate to break my elbow. Sorry Pgal, if it isn't one thing it is another.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


Hold on a second it is my understanding that M$M said the family could declare RG dead remember? It was the family that didn't decide to do that. Does anyone still have the link? [/*]

That has been discussed here, even befire I showed up, and I was given the impression that it would be seven years. I believe that was discussed between Saunterer and TG.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


Pgal sorry about your elbow!!! I thought about everything your saying in your post except now my view has changed and unless they say more I can't change it. It's personal. One thing though if RG was really out there why would TG want to even try to do a primetime show? It's alot of preasure and anxiety especially if you knew RG was out there? I have my views on why LG isn't on here and I have a feeling at one time she might have been. I do think that PF and POSSIBLY LG think he is out there. Meaning I think they know way more than us. I still don't believe he is. :rose: [/*]

CB, some people closer to RFG do think this was a walkaway and that has nothing to do with the financial situation.

Judging from the comments if seen posted over the years, I wouldn't blame anyone with the family for not posting. I know the exceptionally personal questions that would be asked, and if the family chooses to avoid it, I don't blame them.

And yes, if I were in LE, I'd be asking them, but not a message board.

[J. J. in Phila]

A poster commented on "circumstantial evidence" that would implicate PEF. I've seen none. Quite the opposite; I've seen PEF taking a number of actions that a murderer wouldn't take, including calling LE reasonably early.

I've also seen evidence that excludes PEF from key aspects in the their scenarios.

[J. J. in Phila]

Now, in the third part of this, we deal with motivation. Is there any evidence that RFG might have been interested in walking away.

Yes, some of which has been published. The Shotts comment is one of them. His interview with the paper, where he focused on the primary is another.

Some has been hinted at. That JKA thinks that there were references to the Mel Wiley case, at least three years after it happened in the office is one of them. Her memory is not the best in the world, so I'm wondering if it was not more greatly discussed. Wiley disappeared in 1985 and JKA didn't start there until 1988; the case had no ties to Centre County.

(Wiley was the police chief of Hinckley Township Ohio who disappeared voluntarily, according to LE there. He did so in the summer of 1985; the story was covered by print journalist at the time.)

There are some other, non published, sources that indicate that RFG had an interest in at least one more recent walkaway case.

Then there are some of his actions. He didn't own a car, a house, had no debt. He left no financial loose ends. His retirement announcement was made just under two years prior to end of his term, and he indicated that he wasn't going to practice law, even part time, or run for anything else. He'd been practicing law for 33 years and been in elective office for 19 years; he could have easily maintained a part time law practice.

There is at least some evidence of a motivation not to be in there.

As far as I know, LE has not asked questions about it.

[J. J. in Phila]

As for the "tenacity" of the posters, That might might come into play in JKA's mind, but not LE.

I've looked at other boards and had a chance to talk to some Central Pa residents, including some from Centre County, and they are oblivious to the online discussion. About a month after JKA's pages, another site closed the Gricar case section (it's still archived). There were no new posts. The State College boards had no new posts, even though the CDT covered it (and was the only paper that did).

I frankly wish this site did make LE take notice, especially this thread.

If LE had checked these things and the result was negative, it would remove a lot of the possibility of this being a walkaway, once it was reported.

[Cloudbuster]

JJ I think you would make the best spokesperson for speaking up on this case publiclly and the reason being that they would not be able to answer or stonewall your voice lol. If they can't get around you then they gotta be able to publiclly speak back at which i know they will have a hard time. JJ your on! You earned the job!! You can start with LE and make sure Petey is there. My votes on you for being the public voice!!! Anyone else think so?:)

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
JJ I think you would make the best spokesperson for speaking up on this case publiclly and the reason being that they would not be able to answer or stonewall your voice lol. If they can't get around you then they gotta be able to publiclly speak back at which i know they will have a hard time. JJ your on! You earned the job!! You can start with LE and make sure Petey is there. My votes on you for being the public voice!!! Anyone else think so?:) [/*]

I have several disadvantages, as I'm not part of the press or a Centre County Resident.

There is also a spokesman, a damn good one, IMO.

[J. J. in Phila]

I would add that we also have TOL's friend in terms of motivation.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
I would add that we also have TOL's friend in terms of motivation. [/*]

Who is TOL's friend? Are you referring to TG? I know that TG is a great spokesman, but I wonder if it would help having people backing him and standing behind him?

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by Politigal
even tho i believe that circumstantial evidence implicates pf, i'm also open to the possibility that rg left by choice.

[i'm typing this way because i'm hunting and pecking as i broke my elbow today.]

anyway, i do think it's possible that rg is alive, and i believe that it's possible that his family are aware. i also think it's possible that pf is not aware.

i have always wondered why lara doesn't post and i've wondered why tokuen quit posting. in addition, i've wondered why tg so strongly defends pf, considering the circumstances of the disappearance. and of course, i'm suspicious of the seeming inactivity of law enforcement, mm, etc. in investigating this case. i think tokuen may have quit posting when she learned the truth.

i think it's possible that something was going on at the da's office or between pf and rg, that rg couldn't live with, so he 'escaped' that something.

i don't think they anticipated the tenacity of posters here in trying to find out what happened.

jmho

waiting for sj's teeth to fall out with this post [/*]

:santa:
Why would my teeth fall out? Because you finally can see things a different way? I knew you would eventually without a body or anyone investigating, that it very well could be walk-away. Can't say it was a situation between PF and Rg, but something was going on somewhere. And I think someone who knows him helped him, but since they didn't question friends very well, if at all, we will never know. JMO

I am so sorry to hear about your elbow! That would really be tough, not being able to move it. I have to go for therapy on my wrist but it is starting to feel better. Not one handed typing anymore. Good luck!

[day2day]

I know one thing for sure..I wish they would prescribe the same thing for MY migraines that they do for broken bones.:D
I sorta doubt that TG would run around the country -losing ALL of the things that this man has.."pretending" that he has no clue what has happened to his uncle.
I don't think our tenacity scares anyone. Period. IF it did..someone somewhere would be doing something.

JMO as usual...

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella


Who is TOL's friend? Are you referring to TG? I know that TG is a great spokesman, but I wonder if it would help having people backing him and standing behind him? [/*]

TOL's first post. She had a "friend," not close, that claimed some contact with RFG. The friend claimed that all he talked about was walking away. The "friend" however, is not particularly credible.

[Cinderella]

I have to say that I truly believe that Ray is alive and someday whenever the problem is solved, we will know. I think of Bruce Manchester saying the Mrs. Vagus or Mendez walked into his office and wanted to know about personal information or names or info. about people on the case.

I feel that Ray had to get going for his own well being. I feel that he probably didn't want to discuss it with loved ones and get them in the middle. My final answer would be that he is alive and well. I don't think PF had anything to do with it, she was just caught in the middle. I don't think that he walked away because he could, I think that he disappeared because he had to for a while.

It all fits together why LE and MM would not pursue this. I am also sure that Tony does have a "Big Secret". Once told, it is no longer a "Secret".

-------------------------------------

day2day, why don't you get your doctor to prescribe you migraine medication. It supposedly really works right away.

--------------------------------------

I also know personally that when Bruce Manchester quits a case, it has to be pretty bad. He would never quit a case. He loves his money. He sure makes enough. I know, I have been there.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
I have to say that I truly believe that Ray is alive and someday whenever the problem is solved, we will know. I think of Bruce Manchester saying the Mrs. Vagus or Mendez walked into his office and wanted to know about personal information or names or info. about people on the case.


The information was on the the experts Manchester was planning to use. The ones on her website had some very unorthodox views.


I feel that Ray had to get going for his own well being. I feel that he probably didn't want to discuss it with loved ones and get them in the middle. My final answer would be that he is alive and well. I don't think PF had anything to do with it, she was just caught in the middle. I don't think that he walked away because he could, I think that he disappeared because he had to for a while.
[quote]

The case is over; why doesn't he come back?

[quote]
I also know personally that when Bruce Manchester quits a case, it has to be pretty bad. He would never quit a case. He loves his money. He sure makes enough. I know, I have been there. [/*]

Manchester was clashing with Mrs. Vargas. He felt that she was undermining the case. I can understand why he left.

Vargas is a red herring.

[Politigal]

according to bosak today, police are still looking for gricar

http://www.realcities.com/mld/centredaily/news/special_packages/ray_gricar/qa_forum.html?forumId=1882&mode=display&action=&type=list&pageNo=1

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by day2day

I sorta doubt that TG would run around the country -losing ALL of the things that this man has.."pretending" that he has no clue what has happened to his uncle.
I don't think our tenacity scares anyone. Period. IF it did..someone somewhere would be doing something.

JMO as usual... [/*]

I agree with about TG.

There is one person that out "tenacity" scared, JKA. Why would she focus on the discussion, then not want answers to her own questions?

There are some non case related reasons, but there are some that might be case related?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


If, and that is a big IF, RFG walked away and he's not hiding in an attic in Lewisburg, then he had to leave Lewisburg somehow. How?

5. "Borrowed" car. RFG borrowed a car from a friend, perhaps purchasing it for that friend, but having it registered in the friend's name. LE did not check.

6. Picked up by a friend. LE did not check whereabouts of friend, other than PEF.



Focusing on these two possibilities, who would this "friend" be? Someone in a group I've nicknamed the "Inner Circle." People close to RFG both personally and geographically. Who would in that Inner Circle. Close friends or long term associates, people who care about RFG and would be willing to help him disappear. People he'd trust to keep a secret and who would be loyal to his wishes. They are:

1. Very close friends, PEF, Sloane, and Walker.

2. Staff, especially long term staff. That would include SM, JKA, LM, but would not be limited to them.

3. Less closer friends, ex SO's, people that he's had close relationships with and trusts. Examples are the nurse, the friend JKA mentioned, and his ex SO's.

Out of that group, the only one checked , that we know of, is PEF.

The family is in a slightly outer circle, because they are not close geographically.

It is possible that RFG hired someone to pick him up, but he couldn't be sure that the person would keep quiet. He also would need to bring cash, probably a lot. It wouldn't be too safe to meet a stranger to do something secret while carrying a large sum of cash. I think that is unlikely.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by Politigal
according to bosak today, police are still looking for gricar

http://www.realcities.com/mld/centredaily/news/special_packages/ray_gricar/qa_forum.html?forumId=1882&mode=display&action=&type=list&pageNo=1 [/*]PB is in the process of setting up an interview with Weaver and Rickard, now that DZ is officially retired? I thought DZ retired months ago. And PB wants to know where the investigation is going to go...from here? What investigation...the one with no leads pointing in any direction, and no new leads whatsoever in 2+ years? Maybe they should all take up fishing instead...or skipping stones. There are still some needles to find in them there proverbial haystacks. MOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
PB is in the process of setting up an interview with Weaver and Rickard, now that DZ is officially retired? I thought DZ retired months ago. And PB wants to know where the investigation is going to go...from here? What investigation...the one with no leads pointing in any direction, and no new leads whatsoever in 2+ years? Maybe they should all take up fishing instead...or skipping stones. There are still some needles to find in them there proverbial haystacks. MOO [/*]

Give 'em a chance, please.

We have three haystacks, named "Murder" "Suicide" and "Walkaway." Their answers may go along way to reducing the sizes of some of those haystacks.

A little more light might end the darkness of speculation.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by logicworks


What or who exactly was he running from?
And running for now 2.75 years with nary a word or a cent taken that we are aware of.
Vargus left the country LONG ago so nothing there for RG to fear now. Lee is behind bars, so nothing for him to fear there, (not that I think there ever was considering MM was prosecuting that case, not RG.)
What's so fearful he can't come back to his SO? If the relationship was as close and strong as we have been told, why hasn't he called her and asked her to join him somewhere? Surely if he called, they could continue on where the relationship left off?

Maybe he has called her and we don't know it. Maybe he didn't want to stay in the relationship any longer. If the family knew, I am sure that they were not allowed to tell us. We don't know what went on behind the scenes. TG has had me more convinced that Ray is alive. Unless TG or the family are that odd, then by their actions of not speaking up or saying a word or pounding down MM's door then I have no other alternative then to think that Ray is still alive. He had many friends that could have helped him. He might be living in Slovenia with relatives for all we know. I have seen two different spellings of Lara Gricar. Lara, and Laura. Why two different spellings? That in itself makes me believe that something isn't right. From day 1 in this case, nothing has much made sense. I got the opinion early that they weren't really looking for Ray. Why would they not monitor Ray's money. The Sun/Carrington Foundation had Ray listed as missing in the beginning. They removed his name, WHY? Billy Joe Leather's was right away discounted. Why? Did someone know something that we didn't.

Health reason doesn't begin to 'cut it', IMO. There would be an 'insurance' trail.
I see NO motive for runaway, so what do you think is the reason?
JMO [/*]

I haven't the foggiest idea. Maybe Ray being on the Pardon's Board had something to do with it. We don't know everything that went on. We don't truly know if threats were made. Who knows maybe he was headed for a mental breakdown. Would you want that broadcast? Maybe he found another woman that he wanted to be with. I came up with a V.J. Gricar who is 92, is that the older woman that he was seen with? Are we certain without a doubt that both of his parents are deceased? Maybe he is taking care of one of them and didn't want the world to know. He took off and cared for Lara, I never heard about that.
I want this mystery to be solved also. Maybe there are other answers. I don't have any proof that he is dead or alive, but I hope that he is alive and comes back and runs for Congressman Peterson's seat that he is going to vacate. Maybe I have my rose colored glasses on and I am tired of thinking that he is dead. The family is what has persuaded me that he must be alive. Otherwise, I feel that they would be acting differently.

And all this is is just my opinion. Remember P.F. and Lara's words, WE WILL WAIT AS LONG AS IT TAKES. The question to be answered is how long what takes. Too bad that I already spoke to PF as this would have been a great question to ask her.

Any others thoughts on this matter? Why did Pgal change her mind. That is another thing that shocked me. When she came back on and posted, her posts were not like they used to be.
Maybe this is all just getting to all of us.

Come back Parlor Elephant, I miss you. I don't care who you are. You could be some old man, but I did like your posts.

:read:

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by logicworks


What or who exactly was he running from?
And running for now 2.75 years with nary a word or a cent taken that we are aware of.
Vargus left the country LONG ago so nothing there for RG to fear now. Lee is behind bars, so nothing for him to fear there, (not that I think there ever was considering MM was prosecuting that case, not RG.)
What's so fearful he can't come back to his SO? If the relationship was as close and strong as we have been told, why hasn't he called her and asked her to join him somewhere? Surely if he called, they could continue on where the relationship left off?
Health reason doesn't begin to 'cut it', IMO. There would be an 'insurance' trail.
I see NO motive for runaway, so what do you think is the reason?
JMO [/*]

Great Post LW!!! I was thinking about the same thing. I have heard of people running away from their so but why would a man run from a woman? It's usually the other way around and usually includes a abusive relationship. I don't see a motive for running either. I don't think RG would be running from LM either. Vargas is gone and I don't see him as a major threat. Eight months from retirement no one bails that close and crap he could of used his most likely sick days if he didn't want to work. What I see is a man known to go to work even after hours. That says he likes what he does. he probably had accumulated sick days. if he wanted out a 8 month medical leave is also possible if he was stressed out.


JJ TG is a da-med good spokemen! Please don't misunderstand me. I didn't mean take TG's place I meant if we was going to do anything publiclly that I thought you would make a excellent spokesperson, which TG most likely wouldn;t be involved in? The way you have a answer for everything I can't see how they could give us any crap lines lol. JJ if you can annoy many of us imagine what you could do with officals roflmao? Im not being sarcasstic I firmly am being honest I think you would do well with the officals. Your a good choice. TG is already the family spokesperson and I never meant it the way your thinking. I respect you but ya I also get annoyed but that goes with the territory lol. Im sure you get annoyed too. I try to look at this like we are all trying to help and have the same goals. I know we all have a different opinion and won't always agree. How we base those opinins are all different. :)

[Cloudbuster]

Cind Im adding to your COME BACK list.
COME BACK you are missed!!!!
UTR
tiredoftheguff
gstickley
TOL
Kelloggirl
Chump
snaphappy
lustor
hbgchick

[day2day]

Originally posted by Cinderella
I have to say that I truly believe that Ray is alive and someday whenever the problem is solved, we will know. I think of Bruce Manchester saying the Mrs. Vagus or Mendez walked into his office and wanted to know about personal information or names or info. about people on the case.

I feel that Ray had to get going for his own well being. I feel that he probably didn't want to discuss it with loved ones and get them in the middle. My final answer would be that he is alive and well. I don't think PF had anything to do with it, she was just caught in the middle. I don't think that he walked away because he could, I think that he disappeared because he had to for a while.

It all fits together why LE and MM would not pursue this. I am also sure that Tony does have a "Big Secret". Once told, it is no longer a "Secret".

-------------------------------------

day2day, why don't you get your doctor to prescribe you migraine medication. It supposedly really works right away.

--------------------------------------

I also know personally that when Bruce Manchester quits a case, it has to be pretty bad. He would never quit a case. He loves his money. He sure makes enough. I know, I have been there. [/*]


Thanks Cind..
I have taken several meds for migraines. Most are really bad news. The latest Topomax. SOOOO expensive and it really didn't help. Made me crazy. :(...
I am going for an MRI this week maybe then they will believe my headaches are stress related. My Dr. keeps telling me i am way too young for bad headaches..silly man ...

[day2day]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
Cind Im adding to your COME BACK list.
COME BACK you are missed!!!!
UTR
tiredoftheguff
gstickley
TOL
Kelloggirl
Chump
snaphappy
lustor
hbgchick [/*]

I agree..i miss you all! Hurry back everyone!!

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks


What or who exactly was he running from?




I see NO motive for runaway, so what do you think is the reason?
JMO [/*]

First, you assume that if RFG Left voluntarily, it was do to some threat. That assumption is probably wrong. He could have had other motives for leaving.

As for motivation, several other cases were cited where sane adults walked away, because they chose to.

In RFG's case, we have a man who liked to travel, someone who has made comments that could be construed as planning to leave, and whose "better friend" thinks he walked away. The can be a very good motivation for him to leave.

[J. J. in Phila]

UTR - One of the last things that she posted was that she was having computer problems.

tiredoftheguff-Angry over the PEF comments.

gstickley-Don't know

TOL-Last post was at TG's leaving

Kelloggirl-Infrequent post, don't know if she's gone.

Chump-Don't know, not frequent, may still be here.

snaphappy-Same

lustor-Bannned, not from a complaint by me. PE-stopped posting well before I showed up.

hbgchick-Infrequent poster since before I showed up.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


JJ TG is a da-med good spokemen! Please don't misunderstand me. I didn't mean take TG's place I meant if we was going to do anything publiclly that I thought you would make a excellent spokesperson, which TG most likely wouldn;t be involved in? The way you have a answer for everything I can't see how they could give us any crap lines lol. JJ if you can annoy many of us imagine what you could do with officals roflmao? Im not being sarcasstic I firmly am being honest I think you would do well with the officals. Your a good choice. TG is already the family spokesperson and I never meant it the way your thinking. I respect you but ya I also get annoyed but that goes with the territory lol. Im sure you get annoyed too. I try to look at this like we are all trying to help and have the same goals. I know we all have a different opinion and won't always agree. How we base those opinins are all different. :) [/*]

Who would I spokesman for?

I don't have a firm belief about what happened. Don't let this thread full you, I'm at 42.5% for both murder and suicide.

About the only things that I am firm on are:

1. RFG drove the Mini to Lewisburg (greater than 99.9% chance).

2. RFG was in Lewisburg in the afternoon of 4/15/05 (greater than a 95% chance).

I'm not exactly "Captain Certainty" here.

[Politigal]

Originally posted by Cinderella


I haven't the foggiest idea. Maybe Ray being on the Pardon's Board had something to do with it. We don't know everything that went on. We don't truly know if threats were made. Who knows maybe he was headed for a mental breakdown. Would you want that broadcast? Maybe he found another woman that he wanted to be with. I came up with a V.J. Gricar who is 92, is that the older woman that he was seen with? Are we certain without a doubt that both of his parents are deceased? Maybe he is taking care of one of them and didn't want the world to know. He took off and cared for Lara, I never heard about that.
I want this mystery to be solved also. Maybe there are other answers. I don't have any proof that he is dead or alive, but I hope that he is alive and comes back and runs for Congressman Peterson's seat that he is going to vacate. Maybe I have my rose colored glasses on and I am tired of thinking that he is dead. The family is what has persuaded me that he must be alive. Otherwise, I feel that they would be acting differently.

And all this is is just my opinion. Remember P.F. and Lara's words, WE WILL WAIT AS LONG AS IT TAKES. The question to be answered is how long what takes. Too bad that I already spoke to PF as this would have been a great question to ask her.

Any others thoughts on this matter? Why did Pgal change her mind. That is another thing that shocked me. When she came back on and posted, her posts were not like they used to be.
Maybe this is all just getting to all of us.

Come back Parlor Elephant, I miss you. I don't care who you are. You could be some old man, but I did like your posts.

:read: [/*]

i didn't change my mind -- i just meant i'm open to possibilities...

i still believe the scenario that makes the MOST sense and fits -- is that pf is responsible. but, since her involvement does seem so obvious, why isn't she being pursued in the investigation.

questions, questions

:shrug:

ps - an acorn is the culprit for my broken elbow. i was walking w/my grndaughter and slipped on an acorn, twisted my ankle, fell face down on the concrete, busted my lips, face, nose and broke my elbow. i could easily do a commercial for 'collagen gone wrong' right now..lol

[Cinderella]

Either there is a curse or someone has a Vodoo Doll. I am going to shut up or whoever might start on me again. I am not even healed for the first time.

What is with this. Some many accidents, problems, health issues.

I think that we all have to start praying for the members of the board. :chicken:

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Focusing on these two possibilities, who would this "friend" be? Someone in a group I've nicknamed the "Inner Circle." People close to RFG both personally and geographically. Who would in that Inner Circle. Close friends or long term associates, people who care about RFG and would be willing to help him disappear. People he'd trust to keep a secret and who would be loyal to his wishes. They are:

1. Very close friends, PEF, Sloane, and Walker.

2. Staff, especially long term staff. That would include SM, JKA, LM, but would not be limited to them.

3. Less closer friends, ex SO's, people that he's had close relationships with and trusts. Examples are the nurse, the friend JKA mentioned, and his ex SO's.



Out of that group, the only one checked , that we know of, is PEF.

The family is in a slightly outer circle, because they are not close geographically.

It is possible that RFG hired someone to pick him up, but he couldn't be sure that the person would keep quiet. He also would need to bring cash, probably a lot. It wouldn't be too safe to meet a stranger to do something secret while carrying a large sum of cash. I think that is unlikely. [/*]

Do you know there is a limosine service in Centre Hall?

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
PB is in the process of setting up an interview with Weaver and Rickard, now that DZ is officially retired? I thought DZ retired months ago. And PB wants to know where the investigation is going to go...from here? What investigation...the one with no leads pointing in any direction, and no new leads whatsoever in 2+ years? Maybe they should all take up fishing instead...or skipping stones. There are still some needles to find in them there proverbial haystacks. MOO [/*]

Or in the Susquehanna River? like the hard drive in that large area?

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by logicworks


What or who exactly was he running from?
And running for now 2.75 years with nary a word or a cent taken that we are aware of.
Vargus left the country LONG ago so nothing there for RG to fear now. Lee is behind bars, so nothing for him to fear there, (not that I think there ever was considering MM was prosecuting that case, not RG.)
What's so fearful he can't come back to his SO? If the relationship was as close and strong as we have been told, why hasn't he called her and asked her to join him somewhere? Surely if he called, they could continue on where the relationship left off?
Health reason doesn't begin to 'cut it', IMO. There would be an 'insurance' trail.
I see NO motive for runaway, so what do you think is the reason?
JMO [/*]

If hiding out, maybe he is worried PF is being watched and followed, so he can't call her. Or if in the witness protection program that would be a big No-no! Look what happened to the man that was testifying against MooMoo. He ended up dead, although he came out of hiding and back to MooMoo's territory, a phone call didn't get him killed. But someone somewhere was watching out for him. JMO

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by day2day



Thanks Cind..
I have taken several meds for migraines. Most are really bad news. The latest Topomax. SOOOO expensive and it really didn't help. Made me crazy. :(...
I am going for an MRI this week maybe then they will believe my headaches are stress related. My Dr. keeps telling me i am way too young for bad headaches..silly man ... [/*]

My one grand daughter has had them since she was a couple years old. Goes through all kinds of tests.

Don't give up, you might find something to help you.

By the way, Walmart has $4.00 prescriptions. I was in last night asking about it? The list is long of meds that are for the $4.00 price and if it has a star behind it, they are only $9.00. Cheaper than some of my co-pay's.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by sherrijean981


Do you know there is a limosine service in Centre Hall? [/*]

Now. :) A Diamond Limousine Service.

The problem is that RFG would likely be recognized and that would be reported.

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Now. :) A Diamond Limousine Service.

The problem is that RFG would likely be recognized and that would be reported. [/*]

A DIAMOND SERVICE? hmmmm diamond goes with SPARKLE and sparkle goes with TWINKLE TWINKLE LITTLE STAR .:biggrin:

[Cloudbuster]

JJ I don't have a link cause this is now one of my files Sunpapers it was in.

Wiley mystery still baffling
By SHELLY GUERRA
Staff Writer

July 27, 2000


Where did he go? Shouldn't he have been back by now?

For several years after his mysterious disappearance, police still believed that he would show up — or at least call a close friend. There were even jokes that he would come back with the buzzards in March. But 15 years later, no one has ever heard from former Hinckley Police Chief Mel Wiley.

As hope of finding him slowly drained over the years, the once-sensational case found a permanent place on the back burner of police files and public attention. In fact, James Bigam, a Medina detective and friend of Wiley, chuckled when he heard this name from the past.

"Mel was very intelligent," Bigam said. "I think he just had enough and wanted to start over where no one knew him. All of us think about disappearing at one time or another."

Bigam spent several years investigating Wiley's disappearance and maintained his belief through the years that Wiley was alive. Although Wiley left behind several clues hinting that he had drowned in Lake Erie, Bigam said he knows Wiley did not end up in the lake. That's because there were other clues that police discovered — showing he had actually planned a mysterious disappearance.

Wiley was last seen 15 years ago today at his apartment in Medina. He told his girlfriend that he was going swimming and told friends that he was heading to Kmart to buy a swimsuit because they were on sale.

On July 29, 1985, police discovered Wiley's locked car at Edgewater Park. Inside was Wiley's badge, driver's license, clothing that he had worn, a beach towel and a wallet with about $15.

But there were loopholes in the explanation that he drowned. Bigam knew that Wiley was sensitive about radiation burns on his arm and did not swim. He also discovered that there were no swimsuits for sale at Kmart.

There were also other hints of a staged disappearance. Police found Wiley's usually messy desk cleaned out with a clearly labeled key to his apartment inside. In the apartment, a window was opened for Wiley's cats and extra food was set out for them. The refrigerator was cleaned out. Also, a few of his shirts, his writing paper, a book of poems and the manuscript of a murder mystery he was writing were missing.

When Bigam picked up Wiley's dry cleaning, he found a bus schedule in the jacket pocket.

But perhaps the most tell-tale piece of evidence was the ribbon found in Wiley's office typewriter. A Hinckley dispatcher pieced the ribbon together to reveal two letters written to Wiley's girlfriend and another friend. In each letter, he said he planned to soon be 2,500 miles away and he would not return. The letter also said he might come back someday to look around, but no one would know it.

Indeed, no one does know. Today, Bigam believes that Wiley went to California but has since been back to "look around."

"As a friend, instinct takes over," Bigam said.

The case was always hard to get out of his head, and the name "Mel Wiley" has haunted him all of these years. Bigam said most cases leave his mind at the end of the day, but this one really stuck with him. Although the case is now closed and there are no active leads, he said every once in a while he still checks things out.

Bigam has even used the Internet to post messages online for Wiley, just to see if he would get a reply. He said he has gotten many responses — including postcards from Australia to the Caribbean — all claiming to be from Mel Wiley. But he doubts it, and attributes it to people just playing jokes.

Bigam said he still hopes he will hear from his friend someday.

"There are just a lot of questions that I would like to hear him answer," Bigam said. "(His friends) have asked why they didn't see it coming. He put people through a lot."

Bigam speculated that Wiley took on the complete identity of a deceased person, as Wiley once had access to files containing social security numbers and even fingerprints. If Wiley's location is still unknown when he dies, Bigam thinks maybe details will surface through the social security number Wiley used.

But what about the manuscript Wiley was writing? Bigam said there have been several books throughout the years that have "just sounded like Mel." He thinks Wiley has published his books, but has done so "under different names, as all ghostwriters do."

Wiley's mother, Doris, died three years ago and never heard from her son. In various interviews throughout the years, she said her son would never just disappear on purpose. She believed that his life was threatened in some way.

To this day, however, Bigam believes differently.

"I have no doubt that he left here alive and well," he said as he remembered his friend. "I just hope that before I leave this place, I get the chance to see him again. It's the type of thing where you want to give him a kick in the butt but hug him at the same time."

© 2000 Sun Newspapers

[Cloudbuster]

By looking at this paragraph I don't see RG's case being a staged walkaway?

There were also other hints of a staged disappearance. Police found Wiley's usually messy desk cleaned out with a clearly labeled key to his apartment inside. In the apartment, a window was opened for Wiley's cats and extra food was set out for them. The refrigerator was cleaned out. Also, a few of his shirts, his writing paper, a book of poems and the manuscript of a murder mystery he was writing were missing.


We have nothing that really stands out that RG walked away. His keys missing in it's self say he planned on coming back to his car. If he planned to walk away why take his keys? Also he obviously didn't keep the laptop if he was writing some mystery but instead we have the laptop and drive which seemed to be returned there later and separated I might add. No way is RG going to do that. We have no extra cloths that he took and it was PF that cleaned out his office not RG. Heck he even worked till 9pm 4-14-05 as per sur tape. He didn't take any collectibles not even his most treasured pieces? No pictures not even of Lara? No JJ I see no walkaway and no motive for it. No bank activity? No credit card activity? PLEASE!

[J. J. in Phila]

If he left, all the money was accessible by someone else. He had no property or mortgage, the car he drove was in someone else's name. He left no spouse or minor children.

One thing about the keys; if Fenton was right, he might have needed them to get into the house.

As for photos, the might have been on CD.

Close can be purchased and RFG had ample time to do so.

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
If he left, all the money was accessible by someone else. He had no property or mortgage, the car he drove was in someone else's name. He left no spouse or minor children.
(and RG trusted someone else? seriously?)

One thing about the keys; if Fenton was right, he might have needed them to get into the house.
(why go back if he planned this out well and possible be seen at the house?)

As for photos, the might have been on CD.
(and his most prided collections?)

Close can be purchased and RFG had ample time to do so. [/*]

(only if he used cash?)


JJ your reasons are not as good as the things against it?
Keys taken as to return to his car.
No clean out of his office.
No mention to his friends.
No indicator to his most adored daughter?
No indicator to his nephews?
No indicator to PF?
Lara couldn't be the person handling his funds and pass a poly?
No wanting his pension?
Biggest thing that gets me is his last call to PF and his only real big concern is HONEY the dog? And not even Lara who God help ya if you didn't put her phone calls through?
Gave up a whole life of even his material wealth for exactly what??? To live in what and how long before cash on hand is gone? I don't see RG applying for welfare lol. How can he get a job with his SSI number? I don't see RG breaking the law to take on another identy God he stood by the law by the book-everyone knows that.
So now you think RG may be a criminal? That's what your saying cause he would need to break the law to have that idenity? JJ he was getting up in age to want to have to even start reworking all fresh.

NOWAY NOWAY! :no:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster


(only if he used cash?)


Keys taken as to return to his car.


He may have been planning to use the keys after he left the car, like to get into the house. He also might not have have left the key in the car, because of theft.


No clean out of his office.
No mention to his friends.
No indicator to his most adored daughter?
No indicator to his nephews?
No indicator to PF?
Lara couldn't be the person handling his funds and pass a poly?


If you are planning to vanish, you don't walk around tell people that you are ahead of time.


No wanting his pension?


He could walk in today and claim it. It might be a reserve fund. Also, we don't really how much money RFG has access to.


I don't see RG breaking the law to take on another identy God he stood by the law by the book-everyone knows that.


AKA's are legal, provided he's not trying to defraud anyone (and there is no indication that he is.)

Walking away is not a criminal act.
:no:

[sherrijean981]

Could he have bought a new latop computer sometime before disappearing? He could have spent his day in Lewisburg having everything transferred to the new computer, then just chucked the old one.

Everyone keeps saying he could have been saving money, so he could have had a pocket full of cash on him, or an account in a different name. Credit cards also.

He did make arrangements to have his favorite canine taken care of the day he went missing.

He also was from Oh and in an ADA position there. Might he have known Mel Wiley, knew of his disappearance and knew he could have been alive? If one man can get away with it, why not him? Both men had girlfriends but Wiley still had a Mom and walked away from her too. Both men had a best friend who thought the man walked away but were never told about it. Both men still waiting to hear from them? :shrug:

[sherrijean981]

He could still be using his name in some version of it. Reverse the names. He could have set up accounts before hand in those reversed names.

He might even be somewhere in a small town on the coast of one of his favorite states, with his own little house, eating fish from the sea, fruit and veggies from his trees or the local market and enjoying his solitude, away from the criminal activity he lived with for over 35 years? Watch for the new artistic landscapes hitting the market in a couple years! New initials or even the same. Or maybe the one name amazing photo's in National Geographic.

Hope you are out there Ray enjoying your new found freedom away from the stress of law enforcement!

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by sherrijean981
Could he have bought a new latop computer sometime before disappearing? He could have spent his day in Lewisburg having everything transferred to the new computer, then just chucked the old one.


He could have transfered all his data to a flash drive or CD's in about 15 minutes, without straining his technical knowledge. He could buy a new computer later.


Everyone keeps saying he could have been saving money, so he could have had a pocket full of cash on him, or an account in a different name. Credit cards also.


Unless he has credit cards under a false name, no on that; LE is monitoring his credit cards. While I have no doubt that he had cash, if he walked away, he wouldn't need a lot with him. The bulk of his "walking away money," if it was siphoned off over time, could in an offshore account, that isn't reported to the IRS data base. He could access it by computer.


He also was from Oh and in an ADA position there. Might he have known Mel Wiley, knew of his disappearance and knew he could have been alive? If one man can get away with it, why not him? Both men had girlfriends but Wiley still had a Mom and walked away from her too. Both men had a best friend who thought the man walked away but were never told about it. Both men still waiting to hear from them? :shrug: [/*]

Wiley was in Time, which is how I remember it; it was 1985. RFG moved to Centre County in 1980. That they were mentioning Wiley by name in the DA's office sometime after 1988 is very interesting.

[Cloudbuster]

JJ Mr Wiley being mentioned in 1988 is NOT sifnificant to 2005? Thats 17 or 1.7 years earlier lol? What does 1988 have to do with 2005? Im sure RG did not fantasize for 17 long years on his Houdini act now seriously?

JJ I have had fantasies (oh my I can't say what they are roflmao) for let's say longest time alotted maybe a year. My fantasy would be totally forgotton by 17 years down the pike.

Is there a payroll for this case? If so where can I sign up lol? After i get paid I will redonate my share to a to actually finding him.
:biggrin: JMOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
JJ Mr Wiley being mentioned in 1988 is NOT sifnificant to 2005? Thats 17 or 1.7 years earlier lol? What does 1988 have to do with 2005? Im sure RG did not fantasize for 17 long years on his Houdini act now seriously?


CB, JKA started working at the office in 1988. After that point, she hears "Mel Wiley" at the office, who was reported as a voluntary disappearance three years before, in another state. The case isn't even a Centre County case, and somebody at the office is still talking about it, very possibly RFG. It demonstrates an interest in voluntary departures. And there was another case that he continued to show a personal interest in. And we have TOL's friend, less credible, but still the same.


JJ I have had fantasies (oh my I can't say what they are roflmao) for let's say longest time alotted maybe a year. My fantasy would be totally forgotton by 17 years down the pike.


I strongly suspect that was a long term interest in cases of voluntary departure, possibly decades long. That could indicate a motive.

[Cloudbuster]

Okay JJ if RG had that on his mind for 17 loooooooooog years why bother having a relationship with PF? If he knew he would carry out this 17 year old fantasy why even bother with PF?

Why not go sooner? Why wait 17 years? This was not KA's fantasy but RG's right? I don't see Ray setting people up to be hurt over a old fantasy. He could have remained single and then carried out his fantasy and would have had MORE undisturbed time to fantasize about it. As far as S-x goes he didn't need a realtionship for that.

It's just you got poor RG looking like he carried this wild 17 year old fantasy around and what made him just pick APRIL15 2005? Today I ditch my relationship today I never bother with Lara Maya? Opps but i must finish my work before leaving the next day?
OH I forgot something at the house i must keep my keys? But I had 17 years to think of everything so how could I forget something and need those keys?

If he ran off JJ it seems to me not alot of planning here. Why the laptop? He knew how to get to Lewisburg he didn't need it for that and he couldn't email from the mini. It's really evident that he didn't walk off. ( I do hope Im wrong though!!!)

MOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
Okay JJ if RG had that on his mind for 17 loooooooooog years why bother having a relationship with PF? If he knew he would carry out this 17 year old fantasy why even bother with PF?


It wasn't just Wiley. There was at least one other case.

Your parents should have explained to you why a man might want to be with a women, even if not permanently.


Why not go sooner? Why wait 17 years? This was not KA's fantasy but RG's right?


Timing. In 2005, RFG was going to end his long term job. He'd be leaving no spouse, his daughter was grown and well out of the house; it also might have taken some time to accumulate the money, and still provide for his daughter and, indirectly, his SO.


I don't see Ray setting people up to be hurt over a old fantasy.


Not an "old" fantasy, but an ongoing one, perhaps.


He could have remained single and then carried out his fantasy and would have had MORE undisturbed time to fantasize about it. As far as S-x goes he didn't need a realtionship for that.
.

As for sex, SPEAK FOR YOURSELF! :LOL:
Ah, RFG DID remain single.


It's just you got poor RG looking like he carried this wild 17 year old fantasy around and what made him just pick APRIL15 2005? Today I ditch my relationship today I never bother with Lara Maya?


See the section on timing.


Opps but i must finish my work before leaving the next day?


We don't have any idea if he was working; 4/14/05 wasn't a normal day either.


OH I forgot something at the house i must keep my keys? But I had 17 years to think of everything so how could I forget something and need those keys?


Who said he "forgot" anything. He may have some element that he didn't to bring in until after he got the car, like extra money. He may have wanted to use the laptop, and a possible secret e-mail account to send a confirmation of the plan.


If he ran off JJ it seems to me not alot of planning here.


And he had a lot of time to plan it.


Why the laptop? He knew how to get to Lewisburg he didn't need it for that and he couldn't email from the mini. It's really evident that he didn't walk off. ( I do hope Im wrong though!!!)



If RFG had a secret e-mail account, and he had it on the desktop, there would be a record of it in the desktop's hard drive. So he doesn't use the desktop; he hooks the laptop into the phone line.

Yep, it is possible.

[J. J. in Phila]

I still give murder/walkaway an equal chance of 42.5/42.5. For all I know, RFG might be reading this, waiting for someone to show exactly how brilliant he is.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
Okay JJ if RG had that on his mind for 17 loooooooooog years why bother having a relationship with PF? If he knew he would carry out this 17 year old fantasy why even bother with PF?

Why not go sooner? Why wait 17 years? This was not KA's fantasy but RG's right? I don't see Ray setting people up to be hurt over a old fantasy. He could have remained single and then carried out his fantasy and would have had MORE undisturbed time to fantasize about it. As far as S-x goes he didn't need a realtionship for that.

It's just you got poor RG looking like he carried this wild 17 year old fantasy around and what made him just pick APRIL15 2005? Today I ditch my relationship today I never bother with Lara Maya? Opps but i must finish my work before leaving the next day?
OH I forgot something at the house i must keep my keys? But I had 17 years to think of everything so how could I forget something and need those keys?

If he ran off JJ it seems to me not alot of planning here. Why the laptop? He knew how to get to Lewisburg he didn't need it for that and he couldn't email from the mini. It's really evident that he didn't walk off. ( I do hope Im wrong though!!!)
MOO [/*]

Lara Maya???????

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by sherrijean981

Lara Maya??????? [/*]Alyssa...beautiful! Gricar...perfect!

[day2day]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Alyssa...beautiful! Gricar...perfect! [/*]


What?! :read:

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by day2day

What?! :read: [/*]Priceless! . . . . . . . ;)

[day2day]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Priceless! . . . . . . . ;) [/*]


:o

[J. J. in Phila]

So, like anything else, we have to look for three things, Motive, Opportunity, and Means.

Do we have Motive? Possibly. We know RFG liked to travel, we also have some evidence that RFG was interested in cases where people left on their own. It seems to have been a longstanding interest in both.

Do we have Opportunity? It's been there from the start.

Do we have Means? That is the question that will make or break the walkaway theory.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
So, like anything else, we have to look for three things, Motive, Opportunity, and Means.

Do we have Motive? Possibly. We know RFG liked to travel, we also have some evidence that RFG was interested in cases where people left on their own. It seems to have been a longstanding interest in both.

Do we have Opportunity? It's been there from the start.

Do we have Means? That is the question that will make or break the walkaway theory. [/*]MOO - walking away from one's life is not a crime, but, ok...motive (intent): seems to me you, as an admitted outsider, cannot so easily gloss over this element, when those who actually knew and were closest to the man have basically rejected the possibility of a volitional disappearance.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
MOO - walking away from one's life is not a crime, but, ok...motive (intent): seems to me you, as an admitted outsider, cannot so easily gloss over this element, when those who actually knew and were closest to the man have basically rejected the possibility of a volitional disappearance. [/*]

Except at least some of them have not. There seems to be a lot more there.

Motive, in general, is the least important element. There does seem to be a long term interest in people that walk away. That intent, without means, is a dead end. Some of is sub rosa, but it is there, slowly getting out.

Had JKA been more forthcoming, we might have been a lot closer to a solution, or at least been able to rule out one possibility.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


There does seem to be a long term interest in people that walk away. [/*]

I'd like to see a link for this sentence.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila

Snip
we also have some evidence that RFG was interested in cases where people left on their own. It seems to have been a longstanding interest in both.
Snip
[/*]

Link, please

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


Link, please [/*]

You've had the link to JKA's web site already; as I've indicated, some others are sub rosa.

You've also had the link to the "better friends."

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
Except at least some of them have not. There seems to be a lot more there. [/*]Maybe in mid-2005, but I have not heard anything about the possibility since, from anyone who was close to RG. And possibilities tend to yield to probabilities over time. MOO


Motive, in general, is the least important element. There does seem to be a long term interest in people that walk away. That intent, without means, is a dead end. Some of is sub rosa, but it is there, slowly getting out. [/*]Nonsense. Motive is the most important element. Opportunity and means are givens, IMO.


Had JKA been more forthcoming, we might have been a lot closer to a solution, or at least been able to rule out one possibility. [/*]What? JKA's "boat" sprang a leak early on. She could not bail fast enough, and was last seen clinging to a flimsy branch...screaming, foul play paramour, as her boat sank out of sight. But I do seem to recall a consistent and persuasive argument against walk away. JMOO

[Politigal]

Why is motive the most important element? I think in a great many cases, motive is *never* found until after a criminal is caught. Of course, I'm in the wrong thread for that type motive.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Maybe in mid-2005, but I have not heard anything about the possibility since, from anyone who was close to RG. And possibilities tend to yield to probabilities over time. MOO


I believe it is still current.


Nonsense. Motive is the most important element. Opportunity and means are givens, IMO.


No, actually motive is the least important part. Suppose, for the sake of argument, that it could be shown, that RFG had an interest in walkaway cases. Would that have prevented him from getting murdered? No. Would that have prevented him from killing himself? No.

Just saying that RFG had a longstanding interest in walk away cases wouldn't preclude these other possibilities.

As for means, there are very few that are realistically possible methods. If you rule out those, the likelihood of walkaway, in spite of the motive, drop.


What? JKA's "boat" sprang a leak early on.

We have JKA spending a lot of time "reminiscing" about Wiley, even though she started at the office years after Wiley walked. We have TOL's friend saying that RFG spoke about it. And there are some other things out there.

But let me repeat, just saying that RFG had a longstanding interest in walk away cases wouldn't preclude these other possibilities.

I think that if means are found, motive/motivation/intent will not be a problem. If there are no means, then motivation is irrelevant.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


You've had the link to JKA's web site already; as I've indicated, some others are sub rosa.

You've also had the link to the "better friends." [/*]

This is from KA's manuscript. I don't read anything here pertaining to RG being "interested in walkaways".

"Mel Wiley's disappearance occurred in late July of 1985. Whether it was something of which Ray or individuals in the office who had attended Ohio schools knew about, I'm not sure. Part of me has a vague sense that perhaps Wiley's name was once mentioned in the office, some reference to "good old Mel Wiley", though not by Ray, but when JJ brought it up, it did not initially sound familiar, so I'm not sure if the memory of the name beingmentioned is in fact accurate. In either event, the facts of the case were definitely not something Iever recall hearing prior to JJ's bringing it up. At the time Wiley disappeared, Ray would have been living in Centre County about 4-5 years and had just been elected DA for the first time."

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila



We have JKA spending a lot of time "reminiscing" about Wiley, even though she started at the office years after Wiley walked. We have TOL's friend saying that RFG spoke about it. And there are some other things out there.

But let me repeat, just saying that RFG had a longstanding interest in walk away cases wouldn't preclude these other possibilities.

[/*]

And I don't see where we even remotely have "JKA spending a lot of time reminiscing" about Wiley" in her manuscript.

And, is TOL's friend the lady who was intoxicated quite a bit & had the conversation with RG when he was supposedly teaching a class at Penn State??? Hummmmm . . .

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


And I don't see where we even remotely have "JKA spending a lot of time reminiscing" about Wiley" in her manuscript.



She spent 10 paragraphs on it. Then mentioned that she thinks she hear about it in the office. It wasn't a recent case, when she was there. It wasn't a local case. RFG didn't live there when it happened. It happened in a different county from where he was DA.

Interestingly, I also mentioned another case at the same time, Carsey. She never mentioned that. Why does Wiley attract soooooo much attention. I mentioned both as an example.


And, is TOL's friend the lady who was intoxicated quite a bit & had the conversation with RG when he was supposedly teaching a class at Penn State??? Hummmmm . . . [/*]

Or, she had an internship. She's not the greatest witness, but I the distinct feeling that it's more than one witness.

Then we have the initial plea from PEF.

But, to repeat just saying that RFG had a longstanding interest in walk away cases wouldn't preclude the possibilities of murder or suicide.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by Politigal
Why is motive the most important element? I think in a great many cases, motive is *never* found until after a criminal is caught. Of course, I'm in the wrong thread for that type motive. [/*]MOO - We are discussing a volitional walk away. If means and opportunity are present, and tangible evidence is not, it seems to me that weighing the pros and cons of motive is the only way to assess the probability. If we take the position that, absent a corpus, anything is possible, then we cannot advance or diminish any theory. So why discuss them at all?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
MOO - We are discussing a volitional walk away. If means and opportunity are present, and tangible evidence is not, it seems to me that weighing the pros and cons of motive is the only way to assess the probability. If we take the position that, absent a corpus, anything is possible, then we cannot advance or diminish any theory. So why discuss them at all? [/*]

My particular point is that evidence might be there, but we don't know. To me, we simply don't know if means are there or not. Go back to an earlier post on this thread, there are two likely ways he got out of Lewisburg (if he did).

1. He got a car, either a straw purchase or one under an assumed name.

2. He got a friend, a helper (H), to drive him out.

There are other methods, but they are very unlikely.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila

My particular point is that evidence might be there, but we don't know. To me, we simply don't know if means are there or not. Go back to an earlier post on this thread, there are two likely ways he got out of Lewisburg (if he did).

1. He got a car, either a straw purchase or one under an assumed name.
2. He got a friend, a helper (H), to drive him out.

There are other methods, but they are very unlikely. [/*]MOO - Well, we do not (read: cannot) know much of anything. So in looking at possibilities, there is your means then. You do not have to prove or disprove either to assess whether plausible means could have existed...and move on to the more important question of motive. But I am probably wrong about that. Heck, even when I am right...I am wrong - so I get told. And I am not much of a "last-word" enthusiast. Besides, I hear today's Sudoku puzzle calling me.

Chow.

[J. J. in Phila]

I thing, in the case of walk away, motive would become apparent if there was some solid evidence of walkaway. I think that, as soon as there was some solid evidence, people would come forward and say **Oh, yes, Ray said, ... ."

There is a lot of indirect evidence for walk away, e,g. his comments to Shotts, the DA endorsement comments, his car as a parting gift, a few other things, that could support it. When put in the context of walk away, you kind of hit your forehead with the palm of your hand, and say, "Of course." You could call it "supportive." It is not direct evidence.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



I certainly don't read anything there that would indicate RG was 'interested' in walk-away. It isn't even definite that was the name referenced and it appears it wasn't RG who brought it up in conversation.


As I said, some of it is sub rosa. You do have to wonder why she spent 10 paragraphs writing about the totally unrelated Wiley case, and she didn't site my other example of a walkaway, Carsey.


I continue to view the RG case as a 'copycat' of the Luna case, with one exception, no body has been found. Rather than the vague mention of someone's name that could just as well have been 'good ole Riley', or 'good ole Kiley' , I would like to know if there was conversation in the office regarding the
Luna case, and if there was ANY evidence on either of the computers, home or office that the Luna case was being followed and studied in detail.


None that she ever heard of. Of course, Luna happened when she was working for the DA's office. Wiley happened BEFORE she was working there, and in a different state.

There are virtually NO similarities in RFG and Luna, except that a piece of evidence was found later (as it was in Manson).

[sherrijean981]

There is still hope for finding RG. Look at this case of young Holly Notestine, who had been missing and found 4 years later by hunters. The man responsible for her murder is now being tried for Capital Murder. His case was moved to a different county.


http://wearecentralpa.com/content/fulltext/?cid=4758

[sherrijean981]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by logicworks


2. returned home in between work and 'problem'
3. traveled away from home area during 'problem'

Quote

You put a lot of thought in that list.

What problem in #1-2??

[sherrijean981]

Thanks. Thought you were talking about something in particular.

[J. J. in Phila]

I think we can dispel most of these

Originally posted by logicworks


1. working at the office after others left for the day


JPL. left from the office; RFG, left from home.


2. returned home in between work and 'problem'


RFG left for the day the night before. No "problem" that called him back to work.


3. traveled away from home area during 'problem'


JPL, traveled several hundred miles; RFG, about 60.


4. vehicles found in away area, not home area


Implied in #3.

5. vehicles found approximately same distance from home area


Not even close to the same distance.


6. theory of depression early on pointing toward confusion


IIRC JPL thought to be "troubled" for six months, but not depressed.


7. belief confusion caused 'meandering'


No suggestion of confusion or 'meandering' in RFG's case.


8. not 'acting normally' prior to


MUCH greater time frame in JPL case.


9. phone conversation prior to 'problem'


They both were men photographed and wore ties. Big deal. In JPL, call from defense lawyer; in RFG call to girlfriend.


10. possibility raised of going to meet someone


Not likely in JPL case. Either assumed that they were not random crime.


11. possibility raised 'up to no good'


Nothing in RFG case.


12. posssiblity raised of having met a woman prior to 'problem'
13. possibility raised of a 'tryst' elsewhere after first meeting
14. both locations were said to be places people met for 'trysts'


No "tryst" in JPL case.


16. possiblity raised re: porn on computer


None raised in RFG. "Porn Buddy" is a genaric term.



[quote]
19. working on upcoming drug cases


Case, in JPL, ongoing, and just awaiting plea agreement.


20. object found 'pressed' in the mud in shallow water area


As is common with heave objects thrown in water.


22. planting of object to point toward suicide


Possibly, no planting in RFG. Object in RFG points away from suicide.


23. unrelated to DA evidence found in vehicle


You'll have to clarify.


24. evidence found near vehicle area


Not in RFG case.


25. glasses not in vehicle


Glasses in office in JPL; never found in RFG.


26. cell phones left behind


Taken on ride with RFG, left in office in JPL.


27. possibility that whatever he/they was/were 'into' caused the 'problem'(s)
[/uote]

No such 'problem' in RFG.

[quote]
28. no evidence of another driver 'said' to be found in the
vehicle.


Evidence indicates, both men drove there own car, which is to be expected.


29. possibility raised of 'personal' problems


Problem related solely to work in JPL,; no personal problems in RFG case.


30. foul play back-burnered, replaced with reputation busting


This isn't the case in Gricar.

Let's see. Being generous, we have four points out of thirty, (8, 15, 17, 21).

Main difference, no body in RFG; body for in car in JPL. Really a sad attempt to check the Luna case.

[sherrijean981]

Maybe RG was going by the book. Work computer was county issued, that would mean nothing personal to be on it.

Computer could have been something talked about previously and a joint purchase at Christmas time, or a gift? (I received mine for Mother's Day from my hubby.)

I see nothing wrong in the fact they bought a computer for their home. JMO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



No problem if you choose not to add any of it to your investigative file. Just continue on with your Wiley story, and I will continue to follow the Luna case that I see as fitting someone's story.



LW, try to be factual. Most of what you posted is either so vague that my current location would match, or isn't accurate.

My "Wiley story," is only this. I have reason to believe RFG was interested in the case a long time after it happened and that Wiley was reported as a walkaway case (which it was). If you recall, there was an indication that Wiley used public transportation to leave. There is none in RFG's case, that was eliminated.

Wiley is only used to show a longterm interest in walkaway situations.


I personally think LE should check the sites visited on the computers at work and home, to see what level of interest there was in the Luna case and whether there was any trail of interest other than someone just looking. Evidence of sorts.....


The interesting thing is that, if any case should have been of interest to RFG or discussed in the office, it was Luna. It happened in December of 2003, when JKA was in the office and it happened in PA. Yet JKA said she hadn't heard of it until after RFG disappeared. I talked about that case in the time frame. My mechanic, for that matter, talked about it with me within that time frame. Yet JKA never heard of it, but she heard of Wiley.

[Serendipitous1]

RG was a registered attorney in Ohio (until being suspended in December 2005) and, according to TG, made periodic trips back to the Cleveland area over the years. I see nothing odd in RG knowing about the Wiley affair, or discussing it with other attorneys...not on the surface, at least. If it came up in conversation without a current tie-in to some walk-away case...that might be considered odd.

The only connection to Luna I have seen, is Keisling's attempt to use the RG mystery in furtherance of his Luna theory. All JMOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
RG was a registered attorney in Ohio (until being suspended in December 2005) and, according to TG, made periodic trips back to the Cleveland area over the years. I see nothing odd in RG knowing about the Wiley affair, or discussing it with other attorneys...not on the surface, at least. If it came up in conversation without a current tie-in to some walk-away case...that might be considered odd.


I see nothing odd about RFG knowing about the case, but it is strange to be talking about it seven years later, in another state, especially with someone NOT from the area. Also Wiley was in a different county than Cleveland.



The only connection to Luna I have seen, is Keisling's attempt to use the RG mystery in furtherance of his Luna theory. All JMOO [/*]

Agreed on the linkage. My point is that in December 2003, I wouldn't find it unusual for a topic of discussion in the office to be the Luna case. It was in the news (nationally), and it happened much closer.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I see nothing odd about RFG knowing about the case, but it is strange to be talking about it seven years later, in another state, especially with someone NOT from the area. Also Wiley was in a different county than Cleveland.

<snip>

[/*]

Do not see anyplace that RG knew about the case or talking about it 7 yrs. later. (Note the "not by Ray")

(From KA's Magnificent Manuscript):

"Mel Wiley's disappearance occurred in late July of 1985. Whether it was something of which Ray or individuals in the office who had attended Ohio schools knew about, I'm not sure. Part of me has a vague sense that perhaps Wiley's name was once mentioned in the office, some reference to "good old Mel Wiley", though not by Ray, but when JJ brought it up, it did not initially sound familiar, so I'm not sure if the memory of the name beingmentioned is in fact accurate. In either event, the facts of the case were definitely not something Iever recall hearing prior to JJ's bringing it up. At the time Wiley disappeared, Ray would have been living in Centre County about 4-5 years and had just been elected DA for the first time."

[J. J. in Phila]

Sub rosa, GS. RFG was taking about this non-criminal, out of state case, a long time after it had happened. It wasn't a current event.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
Sub rosa, GS. RFG was taking about this non-criminal, out of state case, a long time after it had happened. It wasn't a current event. [/*]

To whom was RG talking about this case? I'd like to see a link to this, please.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


To whom was RG talking about this case? I'd like to see a link to this, please. [/*]

No link, because, as UTR pointed out, some thinks are not on the Internet. In other words, you are not getting it at this point.

Suffice it to say that such evidence exists, sub rosa. He have had some hints, including JKA, and TOL's friend. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

Now, I don't know if you can understand this, but evidence that RFG was interested in walkaway cases does not mean that RFG walked away. It's evidence of motive, not of means. It might end up as being very important or just interesting but irrelevant.

The key is, is there any evidence that RFG left Lewisburg.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



I don't see any mention of RG being present at the time it MAY have come up in someone else's conversation, nor do I see any mention of any discussion of any kind taking place about Wiley at the time someone else brought up *A* name. We are not even certain the name someone mentioned was Wiley.
JMO [/*]

As I said, that is not the source, only a hint. We've had others.

Suffice it to say, RFG did have an interest in walk away cases, which might or might not be important. If there there is evidence that RFG left Lewisburg, the why will become apparent.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


No link, because, as UTR pointed out, some thinks are not on the Internet. In other words, you are not getting it at this point.

Suffice it to say that such evidence exists, sub rosa. He have had some hints, including JKA, and TOL's friend. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

Now, I don't know if you can understand this, but evidence that RFG was interested in walkaway cases does not mean that RFG walked away. It's evidence of motive, not of means. It might end up as being very important or just interesting but irrelevant.

The key is, is there any evidence that RFG left Lewisburg. [/*]

I'm interested in a link that shows evidence that RG was interested in walkaway cases. It definitely does not occur in KA's Magnificent Manuscript. And I don't see how anyone could put much stock in statements made by someone acknowledging she was intoxicated quite a bit, along with the fact there's been no proof provided that RG ever taught a class at Penn State. And, I'd like to know all about the "tip of the iceberg".

Evidence, please, of RG's interest in walkaway cases.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


I'm interested in a link that shows evidence that RG was interested in walkaway cases. It definitely does not occur in KA's Magnificent Manuscript. And I don't see how anyone could put much stock in statements made by someone acknowledging she was intoxicated quite a bit, along with the fact there's been no proof provided that RG ever taught a class at Penn State. And, I'd like to know all about the "tip of the iceberg".

Evidence, please, of RG's interest in walkaway cases. [/*]

As I said, sub rosa. Suffice it to say, it exists. I don't put a huge amount amount of stock in TOL's friend, alone, but I have reason to believe that it a reasonably accurate report. We've seen some other hints, the Shotts report, the plea at the first press conference, the "better friends" comment.

The evidence does exist, you just don't know about it. My only question is to the relevance of it. It is far from the most important element.

Don't worry about motive/interest/intent/motivation for now; focus on means. If means are found, motivation bubbles to the surface about five seconds later.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


As I said, sub rosa. Suffice it to say, it exists. I don't put a huge amount amount of stock in TOL's friend, alone, but I have reason to believe that it a reasonably accurate report. We've seen some other hints, the Shotts report, the plea at the first press conference, the "better friends" comment.

The evidence does exist, you just don't know about it. My only question is to the relevance of it. It is far from the most important element.

Don't worry about motive/interest/intent/motivation for now; focus on means. If means are found, motivation bubbles to the surface about five seconds later. [/*]

Soooo, what you're saying is that "we" should just take "your" word that RG was interested in walkaway cases???

If evidence does exist, what & where is it mentioned, so that "we" can form our own opinions???

I choose to worry about motive/interest/intent/motivation. Thus far, I haven't seen anything to even slightly indicate that RG had any intention to walk away.

As for the drunken friend of TOL, what is your reasoning that what she said was "reasonably accurate"? Who are the others you mentioned previously?

Shott's statement showed intent of RG to walkaway??? I believe all she stated was that RG told the judge he wouldn't be available for the upcoming court date. That's all. Wasn't it mentioned about RG taking trips around the time of his birthday (in Oct.)???

Not sure who you're talking about when you mention "better friends". As far as what we've learned, RG only had 2, EW & SS. Don't remember seeing anything about anyone mentioning RG & "walkaway", not EW, not PF, which leaves SS, who didn't go into detail about RG & his longstanding desire to walk away.

Seems to me I remember a couple news releases that TG, PF, LG, & others had come to the conclusion at various times that foul play had occurred.

Links, please.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


Soooo, what you're saying is that "we" should just take "your" word that RG was interested in walkaway cases???

If evidence does exist, what & where is it mentioned, so that "we" can form our own opinions???


You can't, currently. As UTR pointed out, there are some things not on the Internet. There have been some hints that have been on the Internet. Some people in the case might be willing to talk with you. You can ask them.


I choose to worry about motive/interest/intent/motivation.


It's a free county. I'm telling you that you are wasting your time on that aspect, but it's your time to waste.

As I've pointed out, we could all agree that the was an interest or motivation, and, absent means, it's interesting, but irrelevant. P'gal was quoting as saying that LE rarely discover the motive until they identify a suspect. Even in my "defense," note the quotes, of PEF, I've said that sure, there could be a motive. I'm saying the same thing here.


Thus far, I haven't seen anything to even slightly indicate that RG had any intention to walk away.


Wrong again. Some of the indications were in the "Missed Leads" story. A hint. the ten paragraphs, was the JKA piece. Perhaps she should have talked to me.


As for the drunken friend of TOL, what is your reasoning that what she said was "reasonably accurate"? Who are the others you mentioned previously?


I just mentioned them again. And again, the Shotts comment, the "better friend," and PEF initial plea should give you some indication.



Not sure who you're talking about when you mention "better friends". As far as what we've learned, RG only had 2, EW & SS. Don't remember seeing anything about anyone mentioning RG & "walkaway", not EW, not PF, which leaves SS, who didn't go into detail about RG & his longstanding desire to walk away.


If you look at the "inner circle," at the beginning of this thread, you'll see that this includes more than those three. Just because it wasn't reported in the press, doesn't mean it didn't happen




Seems to me I remember a couple news releases that TG, PF, LG, & others had come to the conclusion at various times that foul play had occurred.


It seems your memory is even worse than JKA.

You apparently don't remember the initial plea about PEF waiting for RFG.

Links, please. [/*]

As UTR said, not everything appears on the Internet. You'll just have to wait. Had you been nicer, I might have shared it with you offline, but ... .

[gstickley]

(snip)

"The Gricar family, however, no longer holds much hope that Ray Gricar will be found alive, Tony Gricar said.

Even Lara, who long believed her father was still alive, has accepted that, he said.

"Early on, she was hopeful," Tony Gricar said.

"But now, she doesn't believe he is alive."

Pete Bosak can be reached at 235-3928.

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/14569409.htm

(Sat., 05/13/06)

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley
(snip)

"The Gricar family, however, no longer holds much hope that Ray Gricar will be found alive, Tony Gricar said.

Even Lara, who long believed her father was still alive, has accepted that, he said.

"Early on, she was hopeful," Tony Gricar said.

"But now, she doesn't believe he is alive."

Pete Bosak can be reached at 235-3928.

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/14569409.htm

(Sat., 05/13/06) [/*]

Note the "no longer," and look bavck to PEF's original comments at the, IIRC, 4/18/05 press conference.

[Serendipitous1]

Just an interloper in this little skirmish. "Vanishing Act"; Time; Sep. 02, 1985:
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,959737,00.html

Also noteworthy is the intriguing mystery, "All the Way Home", a chain-type novel written by several Centre County contributors, and published in the CDT from Jan. through May 2005, IIRC. The setting was State College, in the Winter of 2008 (h-m-m...that would be, like, right now). The Chapter 1, winning entry, written 1/30/05, was contributed by...Steve Sloane...and included a career lawyer, a letter, newspaper clippings, and an enormous legal file from a very important old criminal case (h-m-m). It even starts out with a main character (Steve) illegally parked (art imitating life, I suppose, for those who remember SS's run in with the law last November).
Still available for purchase from the CDT.

[J. J. in Phila]

"Ray, I love you very much and I miss you. I want you to come home. Please call us. We will wait for as long as we need,'' Fornicola said.

http://www.amw.com/missing_persons/case.cfm?id=31411

This is from the 4/18/05 press conference.

"We will wait for as long as we need." Why offer to wait?

He's LG's statement, same conference:

"I want more than anything to hear your voice and for you to hug me. Maybe we can go for a hike - go hike up a mountain and sit and talk,'' said Lara Gricar. "Please call. To everyone else out there, if you have seen my father, please contact police.''

Notice the difference. PEF is making an appeal to RFG directly and only to RFG. LG does, but then directs it to everyone else, which would be my instinct.

The thought of walkaway might have been going through PEF's mind at that point. Why? Why not make it to everyone else?

[Cinderella]

Everybody knows that PF knows more than she is saying. That is not a surprise. :rolleyes:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
Everybody knows that PF knows more than she is saying. That is not a surprise. :rolleyes: [/*]

No, it's one more piece of the puzzle. :D

Could she have seen something in RFG that would have led her to believe, on 4/18/05, that he might voluntarily leave? Very possibly.

That, of course, DOES NOT mean that RFG voluntarily left. It only means that he might had thoughts in that direction.

It all comes down to the question, "Did RFG have the means to get out of Lewisburg?"

If the answer is yes, this becomes hugely important. If the answer is no, this entire thread becomes totally irrelevant.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by gstickley


I'm interested in a link that shows evidence that RG was interested in walkaway cases. It definitely does not occur in KA's Magnificent Manuscript. And I don't see how anyone could put much stock in statements made by someone acknowledging she was intoxicated quite a bit, along with the fact there's been no proof provided that RG ever taught a class at Penn State. And, I'd like to know all about the "tip of the iceberg".

Evidence, please, of RG's interest in walkaway cases. [/*]

I was wondering if Chris Gricar ever taught a class at Penn State when he went there and the girl was confused on the names. I know some students do teach classes for professors, some get paid for it, some get extra credits, some get tuition, etc.
JMO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by sherrijean981


I was wondering if Chris Gricar ever taught a class at Penn State when he went there and the girl was confused on the names. I know some students do teach classes for professors, some get paid for it, some get extra credits, some get tuition, etc.
JMO [/*]

I was thinking along the lines of an internship. That was how RFG first became involved in law.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I was thinking along the lines of an internship. That was how RFG first became involved in law. [/*]

That too.

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
You apparently don't remember the initial plea about PEF waiting for RFG. [/*]That initial "plea" was borne out of hope, not any knowledge or guess, and was as spur of the moment as you could possibly imagine.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by tonyGricar
That initial "plea" was borne out of hope, not any knowledge or guess, and was as spur of the moment as you could possibly imagine. [/*]

I'm sure it was spur of the moment, but the, "We will wait for as long as we need," is a bit unusual if you think something happened. Something in her mind made her think that she might need to wait, maybe even on a subconscious level.

I'm trying to put myself in PEF's place, which is, admittedly, hard. I might say, "Ray, if you can hear me, please call home." It's a piece of the puzzle, and only touches on motivation.

It becomes totally irrelevant if there was no way for your uncle to get out of Lewisburg.

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by sherrijean981
I was wondering if Chris Gricar ever taught a class at Penn State when he went there and the girl was confused on the names. I know some students do teach classes for professors, some get paid for it, some get extra credits, some get tuition, etc.
JMO [/*]No, he never taught or TA'd. He was a vastly different major. I believe that was a law-related class the other person took.

[Cinderella]

Tony,

I find it so hard to believe that Ray could just up and leave his family. After being what you have been through with your father, and for him to leave all the family to wonder what happened to him. Do you really think that he might do such a thing? If so do you think that it was under duress, would he have done it if he were sick? What are your thoughts on what happened?

[Cinderella]

Also was Ray close to anyone that could fly a private plane? I guess there is an airport close to Penns Cave. Do you know if Ray knew the man that owns the airport? I think this person also owns Penns Cave.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
Also was Ray close to anyone that could fly a private plane? I guess there is an airport close to Penns Cave. Do you know if Ray knew the man that owns the airport? I think this person also owns Penns Cave. [/*]

If picked up in Lewisburg, nearly anything would be possible including that. I'm interested in the how possibly RFG could have gotten out of Lewisburg.

To be perfectly honest with you, when I was a lot younger, and healthier, the thought of just vanishing did cross my mind. At this point, all LE would have to do is stake out acupuncturist. ;)

[Cinderella]

J. J., Would they actually tell that they saw you if you wanted to remain hidden? What are they going to insert all the needles in your back and call LE. I can just picture that.

People are amazing as to the various things that they think of. When my oldest son was probably six, he would put a bandana over his nose and sneak into my bedroom and act like he was stealing my jewelry. I really didn't have anything of value, but to him to sneak in without my seeing him and grab some jewelry and take off was something else. I don't know if the part of getting caught excited him or not. We still talk about him being the jewel thief. I hope that he never wants to fulfill that dream of being a jewel thief. It is a amzing as you wanting to disappear. Maybe that is why we have more missing people than need be. Some of the people are found years later.

BTW, my mother did state to my sister at one time, that while she was in Florida with my aunt and uncle in their house on the ocean, she couldn't swim, but wanted to walk out into the ocean to end her life. It was a surprise to everyone that knew her that she would want to think of doing something like that.

I also know a man that was always smiles, no matter where you saw him. He looked like the happiest man on earth. Later he was found in a car that he had put the exhaust into the car and died. It was really surprising.

[Cinderella]

From what I understand, Ray called close to the area of Penns Cave. Could he have driven the car to Lewisburg, and had a person pick him up and take him back to that airport and fly him out? If no one seen him drive the car that day, maybe no one saw him fly out of there.

Soon I am going to talk to the person again who said that he saw Ray. One of these days, God willing.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
J. J., Would they actually tell that they saw you if you wanted to remain hidden? What are they going to insert all the needles in your back and call LE. I can just picture that.


I was thinking about LE just parking in the lot, but they could insert the needles and then call them. :)

I am saying, if RFG did it, I could understand it. It is adventurous and "life on the run" can be romantic, especially when the police won't be shooting at you.

I, for one, wouldn't fault him, if he did.

It comes down to the question, "Did RFG have the means to get out of Lewisburg?"

[Cinderella]

I think that Ray having the means to get out of Lewisburg would be the least of his worries. I just wondered if Ray was sleeping more than usual because he wanted to rest up to take off.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
I think that Ray having the means to get out of Lewisburg would be the least of his worries. I just wondered if Ray was sleeping more than usual because he wanted to rest up to take off. [/*]

It's the crucial part in determining what happened.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I was thinking about LE just parking in the lot, but they could insert the needles and then call them. :)

I am saying, if RFG did it, I could understand it. It is adventurous and "life on the run" can be romantic, especially when the police won't be shooting at you.

I, for one, wouldn't fault him, if he did.

It comes down to the question, "Did RFG have the means to get out of Lewisburg?" [/*]

I think he could have. He has a couple good friends, SS and EW. We never hear anything about the friendship between RG and EW, so would he have the means to take a day off work and help RG in his escape from the DA's life? SS was off on sick leave, but was he so sick he couldn't drive a car to Lewisburg, pick RG up, be taken back home where he lets RG use his car or his wife's to go to Bellefonte where he is seen in the parking lot? Maybe not in that order but you know what I mean. Would a good friend help you walk out of your life? I believe they would!

Talking about getting out of Lewisburg, there is an air field in Milton. Milton is only about 4 miles from the bridge in Lewisburg.

This is stretching it but the river could have been used. It was the opening weekend of fishing season and would it be so unusual to see a couple men in a boat going down the river on Friday or Saturday? We were seeing men on the river last weekend! There was a boat dock on S Water St. Another car parked further down the river?

[gstickley]

I believe that if Ray Gricar voluntarily walked away, his means of leaving would have been substantial: friends, fellow attorneys, the butcher, baker, candlestick maker.

I also believe that if Ray Gricar voluntarily walked away, he would have contacted his daughter, possibly his nephews, in the past 2.75 mos.

No one needs to come forward; nothing criminal has occurred.

However, I do not believe Ray Gricar did voluntarily walk away.

In fact, the "walkaway theory" is right down there with the "suicide theory". As previously posted, a year after the disappearance, quite a few people close to the case were thinking foul play. (One wonders why nothing was ever done to follow up on a "foul play theory".)

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


As I said, that is not the source, only a hint. We've had others.

Suffice it to say, RFG did have an interest in walk away cases, which might or might not be important. If there there is evidence that RFG left Lewisburg, the why will become apparent. [/*]

I found this article on the police department of Hinckley, Oh and a mention of Mel Wiley. Also the fact that this department worked with 55 police departments in northeast OH. (Cuyahoga Regional). Isn't Cuyahoga where RG went to school or lived?

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:nM_fL7D1vFUJ:www.hinckleytwp.org/firerescue/police.php+Officer+Mel+Wiley+hinckley+oh&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=

Quote:
"We are part of the Cuyahoga Regional Information Sharing group. This CRIS group is comprised of 55 Police departments across northeastern Ohio. It is interfaced with the Law Enforcement Automated Data System (LEADS) which provides officers with enormous amounts of information pertaining to driving records, vehicle registration, criminal activity (past and present), suspicious persons, wanted individuals, etc."

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by sherrijean981
I found this article on the police department of Hinckley, Oh and a mention of Mel Wiley. Also the fact that this department worked with 55 police departments in northeast OH. (Cuyahoga Regional). Isn't Cuyahoga where RG went to school or lived? [/*]Yes, it's no different than any other large metropolitan area. Medina and Cuyahoga county share a border and Medina is generally considered to be part of the greater Cleveland area, as are all of the contiguous counties of Cuyahoga.

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by gstickley
(One wonders why nothing was ever done to follow up on a "foul play theory".)[/*]Are you posting this as fact or as parenthetical sarcasm?

[gstickley]

Originally posted by tonyGricar
Are you posting this as fact or as parenthetical sarcasm? [/*]

I don't know it as a fact; didn't particular mean sarcasm either.
The CDT article was written in May 2006, a year after your uncle's disappearance. Since that time, I haven't heard anything about LE further investigating the disappearance. I understand Mr. Ricard is now the primary investigating officer; however, nothing has been heard from/about him. Questions asked of PB have gone unanswered; he is "waiting" to ask questions of LE (& has been for a long time). You'd think if there was an active ongoing investigation---into anything---the press might have picked up on it . . . or people in the area. As you are well aware, it's now been 2.75 yrs., which is an awfully long time if this was foul play.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley

In fact, the "walkaway theory" is right down there with the "suicide theory". As previously posted, a year after the disappearance, quite a few people close to the case were thinking foul play. (One wonders why nothing was ever done to follow up on a "foul play theory".) [/*]

GS, there is an active thread called "Murder Scenario." I started it, and the discussion of murder has been almost exclusive in the past months.

If this is walkaway, there will be evidence. If that evidence is not present, this whole thread becomes irrelevant. Walkaway, if checked, is something that will either produce evidence, or can be lowered greatly (below the 15% I currently give for suicide).

SJ, first, it would be possible for RFG to do this without help. That is the first thing to check.

Second, there are, at best, a limited circle of friends and associates that could be a helper, and I would suspect no more than one. That "Inner Circle" is limited to those close to RFG personally and geographically; none have the last name "Gricar."

They include:

1. The really close friends, PEF, SS, EW.

2. The DA's office staff, especially the long term staff (possibly 13-14 people).

3. Old SO's that still might be willing to help. My guess would be about five, with EG being the lowest on the list.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by tonyGricar
Yes, it's no different than any other large metropolitan area. Medina and Cuyahoga county share a border and Medina is generally considered to be part of the greater Cleveland area, as are all of the contiguous counties of Cuyahoga. [/*]

I recognized the Cuyahoga name in reference to RG but I am not familiar with Oh, even though I have extended family there. Massillon is as far as I have been. And an aunt had lived in Wooster but has moved south.

Thanks for the info. Question is, would RG have been aware of Mel Wiley through his work in OH before he moved to State College?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by sherrijean981


I recognized the Cuyahoga name in reference to RG but I am not familiar with Oh, even though I have extended family there. Massillon is as far as I have been. And an aunt had lived in Wooster but has moved south.

Thanks for the info. Question is, would RG have been aware of Mel Wiley through his work in OH before he moved to State College? [/*]

It's possible, but unlikely. Wiley started in 1978, but wasn't chief until 1982 or 83, IIRC. RFG left the area in 1980. It's a different county, so it's unlikely there would be any case connection.

The last time I was in Cleveland, RFG was still an ADA there.

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by sherrijean981
Thanks for the info. Question is, would RG have been aware of Mel Wiley through his work in OH before he moved to State College? [/*]I have no idea. Ray's work as an ADA in Cleveland was with violent crimes. Hinckley is a very small town, so who knows if he would have ever crossed paths. I'd be inclined to say no. I'm guessing he was more likely to go there to watch the buzzards (it's Hinckley's "thing") than deal with a criminal case.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by tonyGricar
I have no idea. Ray's work as an ADA in Cleveland was with violent crimes. Hinckley is a very small town, so who knows if he would have ever crossed paths. I'd be inclined to say no. I'm guessing he was more likely to go there to watch the buzzards (it's Hinckley's "thing") than deal with a criminal case. [/*]

The timing doesn't look right. IIRC, Wiley started there in 1978 and was with the county before that, but it was Medina County.

[Serendipitous1]

Based on Cinderella's suggestion on another thread (before it was locked...sans post), I looked on intelius.com and, sure enough, there was RFG...age 62, or 63?...previous cities of Pottstown?, State College, Bellefonte, etc.

So then I checked on my father, who died many years ago. I actually was not surprised to find him supposedly alive...right age, etc. Then I checked on myself...wrong age, previous cities I have never lived in, you get the picture.

I am not trying to make excuses for Cinderella's egregious posts...just trying to understand where she was coming from, based on a suggestion in her post and what may be an overreliance on people-finding search engines. JMOO

[Politigal]

i've learned how to use the various people searches a little better than before.....

the paid searches, of course, provide better info.

there is a curious thing i've found on at least 3 databases....

tony's birthdate - evident per his profile - is 4/2/72, and that can be found on various searches as well under the name anthony j. gricar. however, there's also a tony j. gricar listed at all the same locations, but with a birthdate of 9/1/58, in addition to the 1972 birthdate.

there are several possibilities

1) all the databases are just flat mistaken
2) tony once used the 1958 birthdate in some business transaction
3) someone else is using tony's identity but with a different birthdate

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Politigal
i've learned how to use the various people searches a little better than before.....

the paid searches, of course, provide better info.

there is a curious thing i've found on at least 3 databases....

tony's birthdate - evident per his profile - is 4/2/72, and that can be found on various searches as well under the name anthony j. gricar. however, there's also a tony j. gricar listed at all the same locations, but with a birthdate of 9/1/58, in addition to the 1972 birthdate.

there are several possibilities

1) all the databases are just flat mistaken
2) tony once used the 1958 birthdate in some business transaction
3) someone else is using tony's identity but with a different birthdate [/*]

Or, since I've taken you off ignore, in county with 300,000,000 people, there is more than one person with the name "Anthony J. Gricar.":rolleyes:

Searching the data, and understanding the data are two different things.

[Politigal]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Or, since I've taken you off ignore, in county with 300,000,000 people, there is more than one person with the name "Anthony J. Gricar.":rolleyes:

Searching the data, and understanding the data are two different things. [/*]

I understand the data just fine JJ. Perhaps you didn't fully read or comprehend.....

The Tony with a birthdate of 9/1/58 has the same address history as the one with a birthdate of 4/2/72.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Politigal


I understand the data just fine JJ. Perhaps you didn't fully read or comprehend.....

The Tony with a birthdate of 9/1/58 has the same address history as the one with a birthdate of 4/2/72. [/*]

Those things happen. Try running you own name and see that it comes up perfectly correct. Mine doesn't.

[ladyheartfixer]

I ran mine and I don't think I exist :confused: :shrug:

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by ladyheartfixer
I ran mine and I don't think I exist :confused: :shrug: [/*]

I'm at least four different people, all living in the same area. The free search engine I use doesn't take a middle initial, so I could tell that, when it printed out, it wasn't me. I share a different middle initial with one of the others, but I had return with very different middle name.

I've had calls for an architect, with the same name, who was originally from the area, but I think relocated.

Search engines have their limitations.

[ladyheartfixer]

Actually, on reflection, I like being a non-entity. It has advantages...I can blend into a crowd...jump out and perform my duties and then drop back into obscurity ...and it makes travel easy as no one really "sees" me...hmmm...I wonder if RG has the same super powers?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by ladyheartfixer
Actually, on reflection, I like being a non-entity. It has advantages...I can blend into a crowd...jump out and perform my duties and then drop back into obscurity ...and it makes travel easy as no one really "sees" me...hmmm...I wonder if RG has the same super powers? [/*]

You might try putting the city or state; you actually get different results.

[sherrijean981]

We are talking about Rg walking away and in reference to Mel Wiley and his "supposed" walk away. Today while doing hundreds of pages of searches I came across another type of disappearance.

Stolen identity and birthdate after one person's death. Very interesting story but the pictures are not showing. This man was also in OH for a time. This is the link and partial story. Read article for more on the story. Go to the US Marshall and AFT site for photos. they work there.

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:BWodpROq3yEJ:crimeshadows.com/jondoe.htm+1978+cuyohoga+county,+oh&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=227&gl=us

Quote:
"Ohio John Doe - The Mysterious Imposter
John Doe/Joseph Newton Chandler III

John Doe, and a sketch using age progression techniques.

Approximately 70 years old
5'7" and 160 lbs.
Brown hair and gray eyes.
Dental records are available.
Corrective lenses/eyeglasses

This John Doe, now dead of suicide, assumed the identity of Joseph Newton Chandler III, a young boy that was killed in an auto accident near Sherman, TX. John Doe most likely copied the information from the boy's tombstone in the City Greenwood Cemetery in Weatherford, Texas. The boy was buried there, along with his parents. John Doe, at the claimed age of 41, wrote off for a Social Security Number in September of 1978* from 2326-1/2 Canyon Lake Drive in Rapid City, SD. Doe used the boy's birthday of March 11, 1937.

Doe moved to the Cleveland, Ohio area in 1979 and finally settled in Eastlake, Ohio in 1986. A probate attorney, hired to look for Chandler's family, contacted local private investigator Michael Lewis, of Confidential Investigative Services, who discovered Chandler was really an imposter.

John Does's parents, as taken from the boy's tombstone, were said to be Ellen Christina Kaaber Chandler and Joseph Newton Chandler Jr. Chandler's new birthday was March 11,1937, the date on the child's tombstone which said he was born in Buffalo, NY.

"This guy knew what he was doing," said attorney Jim O'Leary counsel for the executor of "Chandler's" estate. "You've got to wonder, what terrible thing exactly would you be running from to go to this kind of trouble to conceal your past." (Source AP)"
Quote

[J. J. in Phila]

SJ, that was the suggestion in the Wiley case. Wiley had access to the death records, SS numbers. He could have created a separate identity.

I know of people that have done it, with less fanfare, for welfare purposes.

It's possible, certainly.

That's why it comes done to means. If RFG left Lewisburg on his own, he either bought a car (possibly under a false name) or got a ride, probably from someone in that "Inner Circle."

You pointed out a while back that he liked to hike. In the time frame involved, maybe he could go 10-12 miles.

Here is a possibility, and please note the italics.

RFG had false ID. He down 192, made the call, and then went someplace and picked up the car (even Milton or a bit north). He drove the car "other" car to the parking lot, parked, and walked to the Mini. He then drove the Mini back, possibly tossing the laptop off the bridge. He got out of the Mini, leaving the trail for the dogs to find, some time between 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM.

That scenario works, but it is far from the only one that works.

He could have a helper who drove a second car, probably one of the "Inner Circle."

So far as I know, LE did not check the whereabouts of the "Inner Circle" or car purchases.

[tonyGricar]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Based on Cinderella's suggestion on another thread (before it was locked...sans post), I looked on intelius.com and, sure enough, there was RFG...age 62, or 63?...previous cities of Pottstown?, State College, Bellefonte, etc.

So then I checked on my father, who died many years ago. I actually was not surprised to find him supposedly alive...right age, etc. Then I checked on myself...wrong age, previous cities I have never lived in, you get the picture.

I am not trying to make excuses for Cinderella's egregious posts...just trying to understand where she was coming from, based on a suggestion in her post and what may be an overreliance on people-finding search engines. JMOO [/*]She's repeatedly made the same claim that Ray's alive and that we know where he is (as part of a grand cover-up) over the last couple of years. At one point she claimed he was alive and well while living in an apartment.... in Bellefonte.

Fwiw, in the past, we've addressed the false data within Intelius a couple of times. A few times, people have provided "data" that couldn't have been more wrong. Intelius is renowned for this. If one has access, Lexis/Nexis has very reliable data.

As for Pgal's questioning of my birthdate and pondering if I've ever used a 1958 birthdate "in some business transaction", no. I think the term one would use for that is fraud. 1972 is correct.

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
SJ, that was the suggestion in the Wiley case. Wiley had access to the death records, SS numbers. He could have created a separate identity.

I know of people that have done it, with less fanfare, for welfare purposes.

It's possible, certainly.

That's why it comes done to means. If RFG left Lewisburg on his own, he either bought a car (possibly under a false name) or got a ride, probably from someone in that "Inner Circle."

You pointed out a while back that he liked to hike. In the time frame involved, maybe he could go 10-12 miles.

Here is a possibility, and please note the italics.

RFG had false ID. He down 192, made the call, and then went someplace and picked up the car (even Milton or a bit north). He drove the car "other" car to the parking lot, parked, and walked to the Mini. He then drove the Mini back, possibly tossing the laptop off the bridge. He got out of the Mini, leaving the trail for the dogs to find, some time between 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM.

That scenario works, but it is far from the only one that works.

He could have a helper who drove a second car, probably one of the "Inner Circle."

So far as I know, LE did not check the whereabouts of the "Inner Circle" or car purchases. [/*]

Problem with that is the dogs were supposed to be senting RG in the parking area and over to where another car and someone supposedly saw him get in it. But if he had parked the car and walked away from it to go bring his car to the lot the dogs would have picked up that scent too. They didn't.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by sherrijean981


Problem with that is the dogs were supposed to be senting RG in the parking area and over to where another car and someone supposedly saw him get in it. But if he had parked the car and walked away from it to go bring his car to the lot the dogs would have picked up that scent too. They didn't. [/*]

The dogs were not brought into the area until the afternoon of 4/17. Things like tossing the drive (as opposed to the laptop) and walking in the around the park could have happened 44-48 hours prior to that. The scent in the parking lot could have been deposited last, maybe 42 hours before. The earlier scent trails could have faded by that point. That's a possibility.

[J. J. in Phila]

PB raised something that I didn't think about. This disappearance involves three different LE agencies:

1. The BPD, where the disappearance was reported.

2. The Lewisburg PD, where RFG was seen and where the Mini was found.

3. The PSP, where the laptop and drive were found. I had no idea the Susquehanna would be under the PSP's jurisdiction, but RFG probably would. I doubt if that's known by many people.

Three different agencies can create confusion.

Lewisburg is NOT in the Altoona-Johnstown-State College media market. He would appear on television because his job was high profile; he's been in this job for nearly 20 years. People would see him on television. If RFG traveled the same distance north, west, or east from Bellefonte, he'd still be in that media market. People could have easily recognized him, or at thought he looked familiar.

If he traveled east, to Lewisburg, he's outside of that media market. I'm sure that, in very high profile cases, like the Penn State sniper, he would be seen on TV in Lewisburg, but only rarely. In a fifty mile radius, there is at least a 67% chance that be in the J-A-SC Media Market, but he ended up out of that market. There is less than a 33% chance that this would occur randomly.

Unless the killer was also that high profile, it's unlikely the killer would worry about that. If RFG walked away, it might be a very real concern.

[puzzled]

Tony could you please clarify something for me? Was Ray actually seen getting into another car that day? What did the witness say?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by puzzled
Tony could you please clarify something for me? Was Ray actually seen getting into another car that day? What did the witness say? [/*]

The was a press report of RFG being seen to into a car in Lewisburg. It was in the Altoona Mirror story on CB investigating. The story was by Greg Bock, published sometime around 6/5/05.

How credible the witness, if he was alone, if it was a different car, or if there was more than one witness, I don't know.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


To whom was RG talking about this case? I'd like to see a link to this, please. [/*]

Right here:

http://www.realcities.com/mld/centredaily/news/special_packages/ray_gricar/qa_forum.html?forumId=1882&mode=display&action=&type=list&pageNo=1

don't know if I'd say it was an "unusual fascination," but Ray spoke of the Mel Wiley disappearance to his friend, Assistant District Attorney Steve Sloane. For those of you who may not know, Wiley was a police chief in Hinckley, Ohio, and vanished without a trace in 1985. His abandoned car was found Cleveland's Lakefront State Park. Steve Sloane told me it shouldn't be a surprise that Ray, who was a prosecutor in Cleveland, would know another law enforcement officers in that area, which is a valid point. By why Ray was talking about Wiley six or seven years after the fact is uncertain. By the time Steve joined the district attorney's office with Ray, Wiley would have been missing for years.
Pete Bosak 2/09/08

Sorry, couldn't resist. :biggrin:

[Cinderella]

Sorry I can't resist saying you are like a politician, trying to put the focus that Ray left on his own. I hope that people aren't buying it. I always wondered why you were so interested in the case. You really like to smooth things over and have your agenda.

I will give you credit, you really do know a lot about this case. More than you are telling. I don't buy what you are telling.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


The was a press report of RFG being seen to into a car in Lewisburg. It was in the Altoona Mirror story on CB investigating. The story was by Greg Bock, published sometime around 6/5/05.

How credible the witness, if he was alone, if it was a different car, or if there was more than one witness, I don't know. [/*]


He might be in a car, but if he is it is covered with cement.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
Sorry I can't resist saying you are like a politician, trying to put the focus that Ray left on his own. I hope that people aren't buying it. I always wondered why you were so interested in the case. You really like to smooth things over and have your agenda.

I will give you credit, you really do know a lot about this case. More than you are telling. I don't buy what you are telling. [/*]

I don't know that much more, perhaps a little bit. For right now, the new odds are 43% walkaway, 42% murder, 15% suicide. They have not shifted that much, even with this minor revelation.

[Cinderella]

Logic,

That doesn't fit the scenerio, so you must be wrong. If it doesn't fit the timeline or scenerio than forget it. :shrug:

[Cinderella]

Logic,

BTW, I was only joking. I am wondering what is going to happen to the man that stated he saw Ray on April 15, at 7:30 am. Since it doesn't fit the timeline, what are they going to do?

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by logicworks Interesting read today in one of the forensic books I have been studying..........

Suicides by drowning usually include articles of clothing being removed prior to entering the water. No reason given as to 'why' it is a common occurrence. Just found it to be one more interesting detail that hasn't been reported as having occurred in the RG case. JMO Another [flood] "flush" of the Susquehanna occurs as we speak. Maybe something will come of it. Probably not. JMOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



I knew you were joking, Cind.

I will hope LE follows up on it, and offers the opportunity of a possible earlier timeline thus giving others in that area who may have seen something early that day to come forward with new information. If it doesn't fit the timeline, it doesn't necessarily mean the info is wrong.
JMO [/*]

A lot of things that don't fit the time line might end up being right.

The major problems I have with suicide are no body (it's possible, but increasingly unlikely) and that laptop.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Another [flood] "flush" of the Susquehanna occurs as we speak. Maybe something will come of it. Probably not. JMOO [/*]

Did the Susquehanna flood since 2005?

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
Did the Susquehanna flood since 2005? Absolutely...most recently yesterday. "At Lewisburg, River Road has been reopened. It was closed for a time because water from the West Branch of the river was on the road. The Shikellamy State Park Marina access road is still closed."

http://www.wqkx.com/1070_WKOK/WKOK_local_news.htm

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Absolutely...most recently yesterday. "At Lewisburg, River Road has been reopened. It was closed for a time because water from the West Branch of the river was on the road. The Shikellamy State Park Marina access road is still closed."

http://www.wqkx.com/1070_WKOK/WKOK_local_news.htm [/*]

I was thinking of the last two years.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
I was thinking of the last two years. I understand, J.J. None of us are exactly the sharpest tools in the shed. At least that is my excuse! :cool: MOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
I understand, J.J. None of us are exactly the sharpest tools in the shed. At least that is my excuse! :cool: MOO [/*]

What I'm thinking of is high water dislodging a body. Do you know if, prior to this time, the Susquehanna flooded after the Summer of 2005?

[sherrijean981]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


What I'm thinking of is high water dislodging a body. Do you know if, prior to this time, the Susquehanna flooded after the Summer of 2005? [/*]

2006 had some flooding of the Susquehanna River but not sure if it was near Lewisburg. That might have made the river higher but maybe not so much to flood.

[J. J. in Phila]

LW, if the purpose was to "make it look like suicide," why not just leave his fleece along the bank, or leave his wallet and sunglasses in the car?

[day2day]

LW..
very well thought out post. I would also LOVE to know what kind of shoes Mr. Gricar was wearing on the night of 4/14. IF he was wearing "tennis shoes"..i will scream!!

I wonder how often Mr. Gricar actually wore those tennis shoes?
He "vanishes" wearing shoes he rarely wears and takes a laptop he rarely uses...**hmm**

The trouble I personally have with this case is that the few "clues" we do have point in SO many directions!! It is hard to pick just one and stick to it.

I really have a very hard time believing that Mr. Gricar commited suicide. I believe he would have needed to talk to LG just ONE more time...

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



If someone knew the body would not be found in the river, the only way to convince anyone that he actually went IN the water was if something was found floating in the river, something that had been on the body, made to appear to have fallen off during the 'jump' before the body floated away to the Chesapeake Bay.

On the bank or in the car would not point IN the river, and would not bring one to the conclusion it was suicide.
JMO [/*]

A shoe is much less likely to be found than a body, especially in a rapidly flowing, swollen river. RFG's wallet in a grove compartment would be an indication, so would clothing, or the sunglasses, along the river.

Those indications were not there.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks



What location was the sneaker found in, and was it 'pressed in the mud' like the hard drive? [/*]

So far as I know, no sneaker was found and the drive would not be indicative of suicide.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
What I'm thinking of is high water dislodging a body. Do you know if, prior to this time, the Susquehanna flooded after the Summer of 2005? Post disappearance, there has been significant high water at Lewisburg, on or about 12/1/05, 1/19/06, 11/18/06, 3/16/07 and 2/8/08.
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/nwisman/?site_no=01553500&agency_cd=USGS

As far as dislodging (or possibly even destroying) remains, I would be more concerned about low water depth when the ice breaks up and moves to and down the river. MOO

Originally posted by logicworks
What location was the sneaker found in, and was it 'pressed in the mud' like the hard drive? According to a CDT article (4/23/05), searchers found "a brown loafer and a computer part." MOO - I do not know where the shoe was found, although, at the time, I saw colorful plastic ribbon, which had recently been tied to small trees, near the water between the SoS and railroad bridge (IIRC). It occurred to me then that something of interest may have been found there. But one could hardly walk 10 feet along the water without spotting something manmade...especially near the SoS.

[sherrijean981]

Any of those items could have come from the flood in the fall of 2004.

[J. J. in Phila]

If it was RFG's shoe, I think it would have been identified as such.

[Politigal]

It was reported that Gricar and Patty had been to the Street of Shops before.

Do you think they walked the park while there?

I'm betting yes.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Politigal
It was reported that Gricar and Patty had been to the Street of Shops before.

Do you think they walked the park while there?

I'm betting yes. [/*]

I don't see the relevance of the question. I would presume that both were, but I would presume that neigher would be familiar with the river as it was at the time, swollen.

[Politigal]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I don't see the relevance of the question. I would presume that both were, but I would presume that neigher would be familiar with the river as it was at the time, swollen. [/*]

You don't think it's relevant that Patty would be familiar with the park.


uh okkk :D

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by sherrijean981 Any of those items could have come from the flood in the fall of 2004. Actually the most recent flood, prior to the disappearance, had peaked on 4/3/05. Using data from the website (linked above), I estimate the water level had dropped about 13 feet by 4/15/05. From then to the day (4/22) I was first on the scene, I estimate the water level had dropped only about 16 more inches.

The flooding had deposited all manner of debris, including manmade items left hanging in trees and brush, and on/in the ground and water. Then too, there appeared to be a "history" of dumping items down over the bank in that area. Obviously, the land searchers had to focus on things which appeared to have been deposited after the flood. Otherwise, they would have had to retrieve and catalog hundreds (if not thousands) of items.

Heavy rain that first weekend (the reason given for pushing ahead with the diver search) caused a modest rise - about 8 inches. Then the water level pretty much continuously fell - about 2.5 feet by the time the laptop was discovered. After the laptop was discovered (sans hard drive) there was another period of official searching. And it was at this time that brush and flood debris was removed from behind the park.

At no time during my days of searching, did I feel that the water depth or clarity, in the vicinity where the hard drive was apparently found, would have hidden evidence. But get this, between the times of the laptop and hard drive finds, the water level dropped only about 2 or 3 more inches.

So here is the rub. For all of the official searching...they came up with nothing (after finding the car and a couple of cigarette butts) - an unrelated loafer, computer part, and bag with an exercise tape. Private searchers delivered RG's laptop...and then the (probable) hard drive. It could be those items were not then there to find. But, one could also wonder if it will fall on the private sector to solve this mystery.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by logicworks
So out of possibly thousands of items, a computer part and a brown loafer are retrieved. Any idea why it was determined the shoe was unrelated? No. But it does make one wonder if the loafer and computer part had been deposited, in the flood zone, post-flood. Maybe it was just to appease the public, or make for good story copy...like a carton of daffodils (image of Bellefonte), a bag with an exercise tape, or a mystery woman. MOO

[Serendipitous1]

http://bellefonte.com/imagearchive/displayimage.php?album=random&cat=28&pos=-111

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by logicworks
Depends on whose hands they were in as to motive.
JMO Centre County Search and Rescue searched the riverbank. CCSR = Nau. MOO

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by logicworks
The flowers and juice container were found on Sunday, day after car was found, IIRC. The aerobics tape was mentioned sometime early that first week, and tracked down by Tuesday or Wednesday, IIRC. The mystery woman obviously had been mentioned very early on if LE was going door to door questioning whether anyone knew her.

So the only two findings of the CCSR would be the loafer and the computer part, other items found before their search.......
Location would be first item of interest; (was it determined placement occurred after the car was found?), second, did it 'fit' and third, how was it followed up on? JMO Centre County Search and Rescue searched the riverbank. CCSR = Nau. There is your sign. Go ask Nau. But, before you do that, think of all the ways Nau's name came up. JMOO

[Serendipitous1]

There were at least two accredited S&R teams within 'spitting' distance of Lewisburg. And yet, they were not allowed to participate in the search. Why?

[Cinderella]

S1,

That is a great question.

[J. J. in Phila]

I think if this "linkage" keeps up, you'll end up naming about a third of Centre County in a massive conspiracy.

[Cinderella]

Not a third, but many.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by logicworks
What reason other than they didn't want anything found that they might not have absolute total control over to include that which would be made public? JMO There you go! And, CCSR = Nau. MOO

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila I think if this "linkage" keeps up, you'll end up naming about a third of Centre County in a massive conspiracy. Not even close, J.J. Semper Fi! MOO

[Politigal]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
There were at least two accredited S&R teams within 'spitting' distance of Lewisburg. And yet, they were not allowed to participate in the search. Why? [/*]

Which teams are you referring to?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Serendipitous1
Not even close, J.J. Semper Fi! MOO [/*]

Sorry. I've been involved in my share of conspiracies :) (political, not criminal), and this sure doesn't look like one; this one would ultimately need a few dozen people, half of them public officials.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
Sorry. I've been involved in my share of conspiracies :) (political, not criminal), and this sure doesn't look like one; this one would ultimately need a few dozen people, half of them public officials. Not even close, J.J. . . . Semper Fi! . . . MOO

[Cloudbuster]

To conspire to disappear one is a conspiracy!!! Where is RG? He is on foot with no vechicle? I would call that a conspiracy. The man left without a vechicle at which that tells me someone conspired his departure.

MOO

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
To conspire to disappear one is a conspiracy!!! Where is RG? He is on foot with no vechicle? I would call that a conspiracy. The man left without a vechicle at which that tells me someone conspired his departure.

MOO [/*]

He could have purchased a vehicle, all by himself.

He also could have just one trusted associate who drove him from Lewisburg, rented a vehicle, or permitted his or name to be used to purchase a car.

[Cloudbuster]

Then why are words on a tape that just happen to be of folks in this case? Now how in God's world can that happen? Why does that tape portray his character? Why? Why does it take me from the beginning to the end? WHY? Why a message for Lara? Why did this person want his message out why? I have a way to prove it but I would be trespassing. JJ make no mistake this message is not my words but what am I to think on whoses words they are? TV's with built in VHS's do not record ANYTHING other than what is playing can you understand? There is noway to record with a built in VHS recorder anything except what is on that TV. The people who crossed RG know who they are. Patty can verify if RG said he took a hald a day off in there conversation. It can be proven if around the courthouse that Patty think's the horses are her soul. That references Lara. Does RG know a Robert ? A person also known to Lara and Patty? That should be fair enough to prove. Does RG know a Marshall? Is that provable? I personally think there was quite a absent that friday and you know what I think RG was the one intended. Why would they be watching a comissioner who is no longer in office? Why is his name on a tape? Why did it upset the ghost enough to say"You lied you lied". Sounds like a setup to me not to mention he says six times you set us up all of us. Sounds like alot of crossing and conspiring to me. Now I did offer you before a copy thru a pm I can send you it then you judge until then don't knock that a conspiracy didn't prevail cause I know better than that. Just ask those that stood around and watched from the top okay?:read:

[Cinderella]

Thanks for standing up for what you believe CB.

[Cloudbuster]

Thanks Cind!!! My brother is listening to it tonight and wants to help me out. He tried listening to it the other day but his girlfriend freaked when he started to play it so she made him turn it off and he so much wants to help. He is staying at my sisters tonight so he can listen to it. His girlfriend had chills and gooose bumps to the point she disallowed it on. My So reacted similiar but oh well. It not that way for me because we know the case inside out lol. Anyone who doesn't know the case and listens to that tape gets goosebumps and like JJ needs a shot of whiskey at which they still won't listen to it.

[J. J. in Phila]

If there is a conspiracy regarding the subject of this thread, it at most involves two people, one of whom is RFG.

[sherrijean981]

I was trying to find private owners of airplanes that might be in the Central PA area and found an interesting site on air field, private owners and pilots. Guess anything could be possible if he did do a walk-away by flight. I didn't read the whole site, I was looking to see if I could find a private plane/pilot that might do trips in the Centre County area.

http://www.landings.com/evird.acgi?pass=100457498&ref=-&mtd=41&cgi=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-search_apt&var=13&buf=66&src=_landings%2Fpages%2Fsearch_apt-pos.html&airport=&zipcode=16875&3=&latmin=&lathem=N&4=&longmin=&longhem=W&radius=30&10=&max_ret=10&start_ret=1

[J. J. in Phila]

There are five, excluding the hospital heliport, within a 10 mile radius.

http://www.landings.com/evird.acgi?pass=100460851&ref=-&mtd=41&cgi=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fnph-search_apt&var=13&buf=66&src=_landings%2Fpages%2Fsearch_apt-pos.html&airport=&zipcode=17837&3=&latmin=&lathem=N&4=&longmin=&longhem=W&radius=10&10=&max_ret=10&start_ret=1

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by logicworks


IIRC, you were taping the Baron show about RG on your VHS tape and the sound didn't tape the words being spoken on the show, instead it was the 'ghost'. Have you a means of getting a tape of that show with the original words spoken on it and made a comparison? Just curious....... [/*]

Problem is the words surfaced toward the end of the tape. I have a tape for comparison and they in noway match. Thanks for asking though. These words are way different in what the show's words are.

[sherrijean981]

CB, I was listening to the tape and had to shut it off after 20 min. That noise that to me sounds like a young pup yapping was getting on my nerves. It does sound like a lot more words could be heard from it but I was getting our supper and couldn't concentrate on it.

Did you ever check to see what else had been on tv that same night, even if you don't get sound. And had the tape been used by anyone before, maybe your nephew, who might have had a song or something on it?

It is very scary sounding but not to the point I had goosebumps but I think that was because I have heard some a couple times before.

[J. J. in Phila]

I think this is situation as it now stands:

1. There is evidence of Motivation for RFG to have walked away. He did have a long term interest in walkaway cases. There is more out there.

2. Opportunity, was there. There was time, since the start, for her to leave.

3. What we don't have, at this point, is Means. This gets to two points:

i. Is there evidence of RFG getting out of Lewisburg?

ii. Is there evidence that RFG had the financial resources to walk away and live on afterward?

The answers to #3 is the key at this point.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
I think this is situation as it now stands:

1. There is evidence of Motivation for RFG to have walked away. He did have a long term interest in walkaway cases. There is more out there.

2. Opportunity, was there. There was time, since the start, for her to leave.

3. What we don't have, at this point, is Means. This gets to two points:

i. Is there evidence of RFG getting out of Lewisburg?

ii. Is there evidence that RFG had the financial resources to walk away and live on afterward?

The answers to #3 is the key at this point. [/*]

Exactly what "motivation" did RG have to walk away?
Exactly what proof is there RG had a "long term interest" in walkaway cases?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


Exactly what "motivation" did RG have to walk away?
Exactly what proof is there RG had a "long term interest" in walkaway cases? [/*]

Wiley, remember. There were some other things. I simply comes down to Means.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Wiley, remember. There were some other things. I simply comes down to Means. [/*]

I fail to see how a reported mentioning of Wiley to Sloane indicates an "interest" in walking away. In fact, I believe you brought up Mr. Wiley quite some time prior to Mr. Sloane's recent revelation or any other mention of Wiley on the board; does that mean you have an "interest" in walking away?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


I fail to see how a reported mentioning of Wiley to Sloane indicates an "interest" in walking away. In fact, I believe you brought up Mr. Wiley quite some time prior to Mr. Sloane's recent revelation or any other mention of Wiley on the board; does that mean you have an "interest" in walking away? [/*]

Actually, except as an example, I brought it up only after JKA spent ten paragraphs discussing it, and not discussing the other example.

I certainly do have an interest in walkaway cases, and if healthier, just might consider it. Of course, I wasn't discussing the Wiley case until after RFG disappeared. With one exception, when I was near Burnt Cabins, I don't think I've ever mentioned the case between 1985 and 2006; just due to the chronology of RFG and Sloane, we can say that RFG did.

[gstickley]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Actually, except as an example, I brought it up only after JKA spent ten paragraphs discussing it, and not discussing the other example.

I certainly do have an interest in walkaway cases, and if healthier, just might consider it. Of course, I wasn't discussing the Wiley case until after RFG disappeared. With one exception, when I was near Burnt Cabins, I don't think I've ever mentioned the case between 1985 and 2006; just due to the chronology of RFG and Sloane, we can say that RFG did. [/*]

I believe you brought Mel Wiley to the board some time prior to KA's Magnificent Manuscript. In fact, I believe KA brought up the name only after hearing it from you.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by gstickley


I believe you brought Mel Wiley to the board some time prior to KA's Magnificent Manuscript. In fact, I believe KA brought up the name only after hearing it from you. [/*]

I believe that you are somewhat incorrect. I cited two cases of responsible people who walked away as an example.

Here is what JKA said in her pitiful paramour pages:

One of the cases raised by JJ stands well apart from all the others he cited, and that is the 1985 disappearance of Chief Mel Wiley, head of the Hinckley, Ohio police department, a small town near Cleveland, Ohio. He initially raised the case as part of a list of other 'walkoff' situations within the first few days of his entry if I recall correctly.

http://gricar.disappearance.googlepages.com/partiii:onlinediscussion

Interestingly, Kare... , er, Lustor, was the person who asked for some examples. Interestingly, she focused on the Wiley case. Interestingly, JKA spent ten paragraphs on the Wiley case, but she didn't mention the other names on the list. Even at the time the Pitiful Pages came out, I mentioned it. I strongly suspected that Wiley had been discussed by RFG after that.

I didn't get my answer until after the first of the year (2008).

Now, that is not the only walkaway case RFG discussed. I strongly suspect that some of the inner circle people on 4/16-4/19/05 considerer walkaway, based on their comments and activities, were considering the possibility of walkaway. I strongly suspect that RFG said some things in front of these people that caused them to draw that initial conclusion.

Now, that said, just because RFG had this interest, it doesn't mean that he did walkaway. It does establish a motivation, as I've indicated. The motivation is NOT the key at this point.

Did RFG have the MEANS to walkaway, i.e. did he have a way to get out of Lewisburg? That is the key question, one for which I don't have an answer.

[Cinderella]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I believe that you are somewhat incorrect. I cited two cases of responsible people who walked away as an example.

Here is what JKA said in her pitiful paramour pages:


J. J., Pitiful now huh? It certainly seems there has been a need to put JKA down. I didn't really like the word "Paramour", but now I can see why she used it.

Pitiful????

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
[QUOTE]Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I believe that you are somewhat incorrect. I cited two cases of responsible people who walked away as an example.

Here is what JKA said in her pitiful paramour pages:


J. J., Pitiful now huh? It certainly seems there has been a need to put JKA down. I didn't really like the word "Paramour", but now I can see why she used it.

Pitiful???? [/*]

Much closer to "pitiful" than "marvelous."

One of the most laughable claims was, "All amazing knowledge for a disabled guy living in Philly." It wasn't all that "amazing." ;)

In general, it didn't provide any real information, even down to her activities on 4/14-4/15 (which I guess she should know). Some of the information was inaccurate (and so was some from DZ for that matter).

The only real nugget of information was more stylistic, why she spent 10 paragraphs on Mel Wiley (and none on Julian Carsey). That did prompt a few questions, that were answered. :)

[Cinderella]

The Mel Wiley part made your day.

I enjoyed reading it. Some things I might have disagreed with but then there are a lot of articles that I disagree with.

JKA is one that has been put down because she spoke out.

Critics of pieces of writing vary in his or her responses. I really think that Pitiful doesn't convey what most people think of her article. Her article was helpful to me to know more about Ray.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella
The Mel Wiley part made your day.



Actually, it didn't. It made ask a few questions. The answer to thoise made my day.



JKA is one that has been put down because she spoke out.

Critics of pieces of writing vary in his or her responses. I really think that Pitiful doesn't convey what most people think of her article. Her article was helpful to me to know more about Ray.

No, I wish she had spoken out, and taken questions, a few years before she did.

I think it is pitiful because of what it might have been, if she had had a more detailed memory, been a bit less willing to jump to conclusions that were inaccurate, understood research better. As I've indicated, I am an unintended consequence of that.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


Actually, it didn't. It made ask a few questions. The answer to thoise made my day.




No, I wish she had spoken out, and taken questions, a few years before she did.

I think it is pitiful because of what it might have been, if she had had a more detailed memory, been a bit less willing to jump to conclusions that were inaccurate, understood research better. As I've indicated, I am an unintended consequence of that. [/*]

First of all we don't know what she could speak out earlier since she had a case, I guess, with Centre County. I am also sure that she couldn't have given the whole story due to people wanting to sue. J. J. I am sure that she knows who you are. I think that she did do her research. Like I stated before, I didn't like the word "Paramour" but I guess if the shoe fits wear it. I am sure that she had a more detailed memory than you think. Some people just yell lawsuits all the time.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella


First of all we don't know what she could speak out earlier since she had a case, I guess, with Centre County. I am also sure that she couldn't have given the whole story due to people wanting to sue. J. J. I am sure that she knows who you are. I think that she did do her research. Like I stated before, I didn't like the word "Paramour" but I guess if the shoe fits wear it. I am sure that she had a more detailed memory than you think. Some people just yell lawsuits all the time. [/*]

The case is still pending, though I doubt if this did it any good.

Any grounds existing prior 7/12/07 existed after.

If she doesn't have a good memory then she is not telling the truth; I think she is telling the truth.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


The case is still pending, though I doubt if this did it any good.

Any grounds existing prior 7/12/07 existed after.

If she doesn't have a good memory then she is not telling the truth; I think she is telling the truth. [/*]


I hope that Centre County Government gives her the full benefits for retiring. Even if they placed her in another job in the county for another year. After all Cheryl Spotts is transferred or will get a transfer.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella



I hope that Centre County Government gives her the full benefits for retiring. Even if they placed her in another job in the county for another year. After all Cheryl Spotts is transferred or will get a transfer. [/*]

That really doesn't involve this case, or her lawsuit. Her "pitiful pages" actually could damage her chances.

She is one of the "inner circle," however.

[Cinderella]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


That really doesn't involve this case, or her lawsuit. Her "pitiful pages" actually could damage her chances.

She is one of the "inner circle," however. [/*]


If someone else that we know would have written the same thing, then it would have been brilliant in your eyes.

JKA spoke out, but PF is staying SILENT. Wonder why. Maybe because she can't get the story straight.

Explain "inner circle" to me? What inner circle.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cinderella



If someone else that we know would have written the same thing, then it would have been brilliant in your eyes.


No, I would roll my eyes, like I did with the "analytical mind" comment.


JKA spoke out, but PF is staying SILENT. Wonder why. Maybe because she can't get the story straight.


False. PEF has been interviewed by the press repeatedly and has spoken with PB. JKA? Nope.


Explain "inner circle" to me? What inner circle. [/*]

It's been mentioned earlier on this thread.

[J. J. in Phila]

The question recurs again. We have three elements of any scenario: Motivation, Opportunity, and Means

1. There is evidence of Motivation for RFG to have walked away. He did have a long term interest in walkaway cases. There is Wiley and the other case that RFG was fascinated with. There is motivation.

2. Opportunity was there. There was time, since the start, for RFG to leave.

3. Means is the part that we don't have. Is there evidence:

i. Of RFG getting out of Lewisburg?

ii. That RFG had the financial resources to walk away and live on afterward?

The answers to #3 is the key at this point. In theory, RFG could have acquired a car and hidden away enough money to live on; is there evidence of that?

[J. J. in Phila]

Bumped for equal time.

[Cinderella]

J. J., I don't know why you bumped this thread when we were talking about a possible murder scenerio?

[J. J. in Phila]

It was bumped in order to look at the two most popular theories.

[Politigal]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
It was bumped in order to look at the two most popular theories. [/*]

I think walk-away might have been a popular theory in the beginning....but I don't think it is now, and IMO, it shouldn't be.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Politigal


I think walk-away might have been a popular theory in the beginning....but I don't think it is now, and IMO, it shouldn't be. [/*]

In February of this year, the CDT listed two likely possibilities in an editorial, murder and walkaway. Frankly, I trust their opinion more than yours.

And frankly, if I just had to go with the witness accounts, and how friends and coworkers acted when the report came in, I'd say walkaway.

[Serendipitous1]

"Buehner and McKnight do not believe Gricar walked away from his life or committed suicide, Buehner said. However, Ray Gricar's nephew Tony Gricar said the family isn't as certain about the nature of his uncle's disappearance. 'We're waiting for any kind of evidence that puts it closer to an idea,' he said. 'We don't necessarily believe he's alive, but it changes on any given day of the week.'"
http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2008/07/03/letter_irks_county_da.aspx

TG's statement was disheartening and disconcerting, simply because it keeps all scenarios on the table. The fact is, then, no one knows what happened to RG. But the reason no one knows transcends the apparent dearth of evidence.

"Tony Gricar...still hopes a larger agency will take over the investigation...saying the past three years have been one confusing disappointment after another. 'I just don't know where this is going'...I don't even know where this has been'" (CDT, 7/3/08).

[J. J. in Phila]

S1, try this:



Whoever wanted Gricar’s fate to remain undiscovered — most probably, it appears, either a murderer or Gricar himself — had a sizable advantage and a huge head start on those who are trying to solve the mystery, and the one person who knows or knew has been more clever.



http://www.centredaily.com/329/story/439335.html

As I said, if I had to go with the witnesses, RFG was alive after 4/15/05 and, judging from the reactions of his associates, his absence was in character.

Now, the thing is, I really need more than that to form a complete opinion.

[Serendipitous1]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila
S1, try this:
http://www.centredaily.com/329/story/439335.html
As I said, if I had to go with the witnesses, RFG was alive after 4/15/05 and, judging from the reactions of his associates, his absence was in character. Now, the thing is, I really need more than that to form a complete opinion. Well I feel certain that TG is all about facts, and is not particularly persuaded by "novel" suggestions. But something clearly has impacted him in a way which keeps an intentional disappearance in play.

[Cloudbuster]

I wonder why there is no reward in this case? I don't buy it. The reward was withdrawn and all money returned to those who gave. Now the weird thing is money is usually given back if the 1>) The body was found or 2) the wherebouts of the person are known.

Where have you ever seen the reward returned on any missing case? I want a link to see it.....

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by Cloudbuster
I wonder why there is no reward in this case?

I do, and I found a case the last time you raised the question.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally posted by logicworks


'Hope springs eternal'. Without a full investigation into the evidence, none of the possibilities can be eliminated.


The thing is here, there is evidence that is admissible in court, witnesses. It's not ideal, but there is the real possibility of more out there.


It's that simple, but a hypothetical question here..........IF TC should win as AG, and MM is replaced as CC DA, and the new DA calls for a full investigation asking for the case to be taken higher, can TC turn down doing so? Is there any kind of time limitation involved? Just curious............
JMO [/*]

No time limit, that I am aware of, and the Centre County DA can call a grand jury, whomever the Centre County DA is.

[Cloudbuster]

Originally posted by J. J. in Phila


I do, and I found a case the last time you raised the question. [/*]
JJ do not tell me you don't find it weird that no reward is in place? If you don't find it strange than why? If they had found RG and don't have any clues on what happened then I can see them returning the money to advoid legal issues.